Weekend Thread: SW 26.2/25.3/21 72.5M | Jumanji 11.7/12.4/11 35.1M | Frozen 6/5.85/5.3 17.15M

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

TFA was not only a decade from the last SW film it was 32 years since Han, Luke and Leia appeared on screen and their return is what made the first film so massive (far ahead of TPM which was also the biggest of it's trilogy).    After that novelty it was never reaching those heights again - especially with Han dead.  Then Luke was killed off...  

TFA’s WW performance

Spoiler

1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Titanic	Par.	$2,186.8	$658.7	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,670.4	$652.3	39.0%	$1,018.1	61.0%	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,519.6	$623.4	41.0%	$896.2	59.0%	2012
6	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
9	Frozen	BV	$1,276.5	$400.7	31.4%	$875.7	68.6%	2013
10	Iron Man 3	BV	$1,215.4	$409.0	33.7%	$806.4	66.3%	2013

Really does not look that much more impressive to me than TPM’s

Spoiler

1	Titanic	Fox/P.	$1,835.4	$600.8	32.7%	$1,234.6	67.3%	1997
2	The Phantom Menace	Fox	$923.1	$431.1	46.7%	$492.0	53.3%	1999
3	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$920.1	$357.1	38.8%	$563.0	61.2%	1993
4	Independence Day	Fox	$813.2	$306.2	37.7%	$507.0	62.3%	1996
5	Star Wars	Fox	$798.0	$461.0	60.1%	$337.0	39.9%	1977
6	The Lion King	Dis.	$766.9	$312.9	40.8%	$454.0	59.2%	1994
7	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	Uni.	$704.8	$399.8	56.7%	$305.0	43.3%	1982
8	Forrest Gump	Par.	$679.7	$329.7	48.5%	$350.0	51.5%	1994
9	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	Uni.	$614.4	$229.1	37.3%	$385.3	62.7%	1997
10	Men in Black	Sony	$587.8	$250.7	42.7%	$337.1	57.3%	1997

 

[MrGlass2]

38 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

I dont follow box office much again but how does TROS miss a billion if its already at $724 million this week?

It will almost certainly make $1B+.

[Moviefanfr]

48 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

That DanielRPK guy posted on twitter, hinting at a possible new Star Wars movie featuring Rey ( solo movie )...

 

 

Who is this danielRPK ? 

Did he have any scoop before?

[AndyK]

Saw Jumanji last night and the theatre was full.

[hw64]

14 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TFA’s WW performance

 

Really does not look that much more impressive to me than TPM’s

They're very similar performance-wise - TFA certainly wasn't massively bigger than TPM.

 

Accounting for the effects of ticket price inflation and market expansion from 1999 to 2015, I'd say that TFA was at most 15-20% bigger than TPM worldwide.

[LeoC]

2 hours ago, raulbalarezo said:

I don’t visit this forum a lot, but could someone please @me or PM me when this guy finally, if he’s ever going to, admits his mistake in a few days?

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Matinees are pacing 8% ahead of yesterday, evening shows are 33% behind yesterday.  If both of those hold we'd be looking at 21-21.5M (based on 25M yesterday and 26M Friday).

There is a mistake in this update due to a data entry error.  Evening shows are more like 39% behind.  So 20.5M would be closer.

Edited December 29, 2019 by ZackM

[bleachella]

Throwback to when I really wrote this at least half-seriously

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, ZackM said:

There is a mistake in this update due to a data entry error.  Evening shows are more like 39% behind.  So 20.5M would be closer.

It’s nice how we have a handful of non-purple users with enough coverage to get seemingly decently accurate midday updates (I know your sample size is small so far, and will be less representative for some movies than others).     
 

20.5 would be in line with Jat and Disney estimates, but the -40% evening leaves me a bit concerned about the upcoming weekdays.

[Moviefanfr]

Evening is only prevision based on presales. 

Maybe it can do better with walk in. We shall see

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, Moviefanfr said:

Evening is only prevision based on presales. 

Maybe it can do better with walk in. We shall see

Yeah, I'm hoping the walkups are much better than the 60% seen in presales.

[Nova]

@ZackM how did you come up with those numbers? Like what have you been using to gather your data points? 

[misafeco]

I cannot wait for next weekend, when all these box office "analysts" will realize how bad their prediction was. 

 

Then they will claim that TRoS had a worse drop than expected, when actually it just did what it was supposed to...

[REC]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’s nice how we have a handful of non-purple users with enough coverage to get seemingly decently accurate midday updates (I know your sample size is small so far, and will be less representative for some movies than others).     
 

20.5 would be in line with Jat and Disney estimates, but the -40% evening leaves me a bit concerned about the upcoming weekdays.

I'm wondering how TROS compares to other extremely frontloaded movies with no legs.  I have a feeling this is going to fall off a cliff completely, and the vast majority of its theatrical earnings are already earned.  Of course since it made 720m or whatever and assuming it can squeek out 1.1bn, the above statement would be true.  But I still think the underperformance will be strong with this one, shocking most all of us.  I'm still going to be surprised if it goes over 1bn.

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

@ZackM how did you come up with those numbers? Like what have you been using to gather your data points? 

Total sales for 3 different theater chains all around Michigan.  Seat maps stay available for at least a few hours after the showtimes so I'm able to get final numbers for each show.  So far, day-over-day comparisons have shown that Michigander movie going habits are fairly representative to North America at large.  Other than Christmas day, all of my Michigan-to-North-America multipliers have been within 4% and I imagine that would be better if I had been paying attention to matinees before yesterday. 

[misafeco]

A few 2013 comparisons:

Dec. 27-29 (weekend) vs. Dec. 30-Jan. 5 (7 days)

 

Frozen: 28.6M vs. 48.6M (+70%)
Hobbit 2: 29M vs. 39.6M (+36,5%)
Anchorman 2: 19.7M vs. 25.5M (+29,5%)

 

TLJ (dec. 22-24 vs. 25-31)

71.5M vs. 149M (+108.4%)

 

So deadline.com is assuming it will play out like TLJ, while in reality Hobbit 2 pattern is probably the best case scenario. It would give another 97.3M for the 7-day which is 52.7M lower than TLJ in the same period. And TLJ still had the 1st of January Monday like an extension of the weekend.

 

So after next weekend we will be still under 460M, with TLJ drops it will barely pass 520M. I guess 530-540 would be a small victory.

[Moviefanfr]

I wonder how monday will be. 

Sunday was easy to predict but monday is way harder 

[jking123]

1 hour ago, LeoC said:

I don’t visit this forum a lot, but could someone please @me or PM me when this guy finally, if he’s ever going to, admits his mistake in a few days?

he's a full blown disney shill/fanatic iirc. I doubt he can bring himself to disagree with or diss anything Disney related 

[ZackM]

Late afternoon/early evening sales have nearly matched sales from yesterday for TROS, cutting way into that -39% from earlier.  It's now at -27%, but I wouldn't expect that to hold as we get later into the evening.  Maybe that 21-21.5M number is where it will end up after all.

 

The next hour should be pretty telling.

Edited December 29, 2019 by ZackM

[Amadeus]

2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

TFA’s WW performance

  Hide contents

1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Titanic	Par.	$2,186.8	$658.7	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,670.4	$652.3	39.0%	$1,018.1	61.0%	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,519.6	$623.4	41.0%	$896.2	59.0%	2012
6	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
9	Frozen	BV	$1,276.5	$400.7	31.4%	$875.7	68.6%	2013
10	Iron Man 3	BV	$1,215.4	$409.0	33.7%	$806.4	66.3%	2013

Really does not look that much more impressive to me than TPM’s

  Hide contents

1	Titanic	Fox/P.	$1,835.4	$600.8	32.7%	$1,234.6	67.3%	1997
2	The Phantom Menace	Fox	$923.1	$431.1	46.7%	$492.0	53.3%	1999
3	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$920.1	$357.1	38.8%	$563.0	61.2%	1993
4	Independence Day	Fox	$813.2	$306.2	37.7%	$507.0	62.3%	1996
5	Star Wars	Fox	$798.0	$461.0	60.1%	$337.0	39.9%	1977
6	The Lion King	Dis.	$766.9	$312.9	40.8%	$454.0	59.2%	1994
7	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	Uni.	$704.8	$399.8	56.7%	$305.0	43.3%	1982
8	Forrest Gump	Par.	$679.7	$329.7	48.5%	$350.0	51.5%	1994
9	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	Uni.	$614.4	$229.1	37.3%	$385.3	62.7%	1997
10	Men in Black	Sony	$587.8	$250.7	42.7%	$337.1	57.3%	1997

 

With all that going in for it i think Episode 7 would have made the same number even if Zack or bay would have directed it. Lucas would on the other hand have seen the potential of chinese market and Done something mind blowing... j j abrams sucks just plan sucks