charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said: Even for bigger MCU films like Strange 2, 900M WW is still fucking excellent Anything below Captain Marvel is a disappointment for Strange 2. It's biggest (2nd) Phase 4 film at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, TalismanRing said: Not sure where you get $60m in WW Home Video Profit but that's highly unlikely. Adjusted from Homecoming stats by Deadline by its Domestic sales from The Numbers. 1 minute ago, TalismanRing said: Also "Others" at $50m? That's a pretty big catchall number especially for Marvel. Again Homecoming stat from Deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, DAJK said: Damn Sonic might hit 70 for the 4-day after all. Needs -30% Mon drop or better. Lego2 (-7%), ITSV (-6%), WIR2 (+25%) did very well last year on Mon but were not in opening weekend and putting in small numbers too. Guessing -20-25% for 12.6-13.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) Just now, charlie Jatinder said: Anything below Captain Marvel is a disappointment for Strange 2. It's biggest (2nd) Phase 4 film at this time. Eh. The first Strange didn't hit $700m. Adding Wanda and the Multiverse will help as will the springboard off of AIW which increased Strange's popularity (though he's hardly universally loved) but doing $450m more with a 65% increase is hardly a lock nor would a $900m WW be a disappointment. Edited February 17, 2020 by TalismanRing 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) Just now, charlie Jatinder said: Adjusted from Homecoming stats by Deadline by its Domestic sales from The Numbers. Again Homecoming stat from Deadline. Homecoming has Sony multiple back end producer deals that an MCU film doesn't. 1) The Numbers only has an estimate $ for Dom hard media. 2) Digital media has outstripped it in sales for most MCU titles and there's less expense. 3) It's Deadline which can't even remember when doing it's year end round ups that Disney's take for AIW domestic is 65% not 55% even though they wrote articles about it. 4) Deadline had Thor: TDW with about $139m profit on a $170m budget and $644m WW. 5) It's Deadline Edited February 17, 2020 by TalismanRing 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Eh. The first Strange didn't hit $700m. Adding Wanda and the Multiverse will help as will the springboard off of AIW which increased Strange's popularity (though he's hardly universally loved) but doing $450m with a 65% increase is hardly a lock nor would a $900m WW be a disappointment. Yep has never happened except with Iron Man 3 and it's easy to see how that isn't comparable to Doctor Strange even though it has the coverted May release date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: The first Strange didn't hit $700m First Strange didn't featured in Ragnarok & Infinity War. Anyways Strange is biggest Avengers in India after Thor now. Edited February 17, 2020 by charlie Jatinder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I can see CM2 tanking hard relative to the first. Didn’t get the sense that it resonated with folks, outside of its Endgame connections. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said: Yep has never happened except with Iron Man 3 and it's easy to see how that isn't comparable to Doctor Strange even though it has the coverted May release date. It also happened with TWS but that was on a smaller scale and had the boost not only of The Avengers but also Disney distribution vs Paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 1) The Numbers only has an estimate $ for Dom hard media. Still that gives an idea. Domestic sales were 70% of Homecoming so taking that into ratio. 28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 2) Digital media has outstripped it in sales for most MCU titles and there's less expense. That's like one year of difference, won't be that big a difference. Also Internationally Spidey will sell better so that will adjust out Digital benefit. 28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Deadline had Thor: TDW with about $139m profit on a $170m budget and $644m WW. Thor had 110mn profit from Home Video. Also they have participations at just $12mn, which seems low. 28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: It's Deadline Yeah but still gives an idea. 28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Homecoming has Sony multiple back end producer deals that an MCU film doesn't. Even Ragnarok had similar costs. Edited February 17, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, charlie Jatinder said: First Strange didn't featured in Infinity War. Anyways Strange is biggest Avengers in India after Thor now. Just now, lilmac said: I can see CM2 tanking hard relative to the first. Didn’t get the sense that it resonated with folks, outside of its Endgame connections. Personal or even a Countrys likes/dislikes does not equal WW likes/dislikes I was lukewarm on CM and I hate Stange's guts after AIW/AEG but it would be foolish of me to think that translated to the audience at large. CM had rather good legs that can't be solely accounted for it's positioning between AIW and AEG and Strange's popularity clearly went up after AIW but I don't see where he's become more popular than Black Panther, CM or Spider-Man WW or just in the U.S. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, charlie Jatinder said: Still that gives an idea. Domestic sales were 70% of Homecoming so taking that into ratio. That's like one year of difference, won't be that big a difference. Also Internationally Spidey will sell better so that will adjust out Digital benefit. Thor had 110mn profit from Home Video. Also they have participations at just $12mn, which seems low. Yeah but still gives an idea. Even Ragnarok had similar costs. Deadline doesn't have WW numbers when they do Home Video projections - it's all guesswork based on partial info on previous titles and then again they only have partial Dom info for hard media when the movie has already hit home release which sometimes it hasn't even been released yet when they do these write ups. Most of these numbers are like throwing darts. Look at Sony's breakdown for ASM2 from their leaked sheets. This was a $258m gross budget film with another $250m+ in marketing. It made $87m WW theatrical than A-M&TW with about $200m more in just production and marketing costs (not counting participation, costs etc) and even it made a small profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Look at Sony's breakdown for ASM2 from their leaked sheets. This was a $258m gross budget film with another $250m+ in marketing. It made $87m WW theatrical than A-M&TW with about $200m more in just production and marketing costs (not counting participation, costs etc) and even it made a small profit. Would like to see that. FWIW, Deadline was really close with their $70mn profit though that still seems high with just $10mn participations. Also $250mn marketing is just absurd. Deadline has taken $150mn in account. Edited February 17, 2020 by charlie Jatinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OncomingStorm93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Never forget that Warner Bros claimed a $160m loss on Harry Potter 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: 16.8 4.9 J 1.9 P 1.75 Strip 3% from all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, lilmac said: I can see CM2 tanking hard relative to the first. Didn’t get the sense that it resonated with folks, outside of its Endgame connections. Nah, it had good audience scores and good legs even without the EG boost. 1 hour ago, TalismanRing said: Eh. The first Strange didn't hit $700m. Adding Wanda and the Multiverse will help as will the springboard off of AIW which increased Strange's popularity (though he's hardly universally loved) but doing $450m more with a 65% increase is hardly a lock nor would a $900m WW be a disappointment. Not so much the popularity of the character but the film's multiverse premise is what will get a big increase imo. It's been winning a lot of the fan most anticipated polls which I had thought would be dominated by Thor. Not sure if that will translate to the BO but the potential is there , and just $900 million would probably be a tad disappointing for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Hide contents USA Share: $119mn China Share: $26mn ROW: $114mn Total WW: $260mn Home Video Profit: $60mn TV: ~$115mn Total Revenue: $435mn Budget: $162mn Release Cost: $150mn Participations: ~$50mn Others: $50mn Total Expenses: $412mn That's just $23mn profit before taxes. Ant-Man and The Wasp released 2 months later in China, till then it hadn't recovered its budget. In fact even after that, it needed Home Video revenue to do so. Yes. GOing from profit and expense in the 2 column is an mistake that make it look different than in reality here I feel like. First Ant-Man deadline estimate: https://issuu.com/pmcderek/docs/no._14_ant-man According to there estimate it would have more than 23M with a 162M budget + 50M estimate (32m) with it's 520M. There is no doubt it needed home video (why even bring that up ?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 So, what's Sonic's budget and how much does it need to do in order to make profit? Most of the articles say the budget is 84 million. I guess something like 300 million would be enough? At least, it seems to be making good domestic numbers. Hopefully a sequel gets made. Can't wait for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Would like to see that. FWIW, Deadline was really close with their $70mn profit though that still seems high with just $10mn participations. Also $250mn marketing is just absurd. Deadline has taken $150mn in account. It went quite high on that franchise Deadline are a bit wrong about ASM 2 finance (like on all movie obviously) but not that far off, the reality looked more like this, they do undervalue participation's on pretty much every title : Amasing Spider Man 2 Revenues (according to sony prevision) Dom rental: 108M Intl: 199.82M Home ent revenues: Dom: 83M Intl: 65m TV: 119M Airlines: 3M other: 0.38M Marvel check from their deal; 24.8M Total revenues: 603M Net budget after tax credit: 263.95M (312.25M gross) Overhead at 12%: 31.57M Participation: 44.25M Residuals: 15.41M Marketing cost : 167M Prints and other releasing cost: 47M Manufacturing cost: 25.5M ---------------------- Third party Investor in: 66.6, getting back 44.25 (loosing 22M), Sony make 14.5M (-6.6 for the investor together), so the profits all went into the participation bonus that kicked in before profits. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
