The Batman | March 4, 2022 | Warner Bros. | Certified Fresh on RT | 7th Most Profitable Movie of 2023

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, 21C said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUqkqitTIBg

Bye to China.

 

[Juby]

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

What was your age demo in 2008 and how closely were you following the film industry?

I was 16 and this was the very first film I followed day by day. I remember this case very clearly, especially viral marketing and big hype (even in my country).

 

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

Before I even get into, the good news here is the internet existed in 2008 and there are tons of resources which will back up my claim that average predictions pre-Ledger death were dramatically lower then final predictions and of the course final result.

 

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=20436&hilit=the+dark+knight

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=37513&hilit=summer+2008

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=37467&hilit=summer+2008

After Heath's death predictions still were low. Much lower than final results, sometimes lower than Iron Man's gross. EW forecast gave TDK $255 mln, The Weekend Warrior $305-310 mln if I remember correctly (4-5 months after Ledger died). Your argument is invalid here. Predictions are always only predictions, it means nothing. If not Shrek 2, I'll give You another example - Jurassic World predictions were max. $400 mln even 2 weeks pre-release and JW did $652M domestically. Can You tell me reasons why? Why no one saw this is going to be so huge? I'll tell You - because such things happens!

https://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-all-time-box-office-opening-record-tracking-social-media-1201443293/

 

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

Batman Begins was not a popular a Shrek as is obvious by BB's box office performance compared to Shreks.

I already explain why Begins had only "solid" box office run, and that reception of the film - even with smaller B.O. succes - was even better than Shrek's + Batman was bigger name after regaining reputation with Begins.

 

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

All of your reasons explain why TDK was expected to open in the $110-115m range, which was HUGE at the time.  It would have been one of the top 5 opening weekends ever had it hit $120m. Hype was huge indeed. Before Ledger's death, TDK was part of the summers "big 3" with Indy and Narnia. By mid June, it was obvious TDK had become the big 1.  

 

We are not debating whether it was or was not a monster, we are debating the extent to which it was a monster. You do know TDK would have another $8-10m more on opening weekend had theaters been more prepared, right? Pre-Ledger death, everyone saw $100-115m, post death, they all jumped to $135ish, reality SHOULD have been $170m had theaters been prepared. 

I don't care what everyone saw before Ledger's death and after that, it was still only predicting!! Before no one died everyone expected $80-120 mln opening weekend for Jurassic World, and after still no one died everyone start to thinking about $120-160 mln for Jurassic World. And finally the film opened with $209 mln which no one ever expected. No one expected JW will defeat Age of Ultron, no one knew Spider-Man will defeat Attack of the Clones, no one expected that Black Panther will break over $450 mln, but he become the third $700M-grosser. Such things happens all the time, films break-out over our predictions. What people predicted for TDK (especially after B&R and Batman Begins's runs, forgeting how big Batman name was and how many tickets were sold for the first Tim Burton's film + current tickets prices) is no argument here.

 

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

Cant prove anyone right or wrong, but can absolutely say that some logic and reason I more sound than others - there is zero reason to think it would have performed better than Pirates 2, which is what your numbers shows.

There's planty of reasons to think that TDK would have performed better than Pirates 2, and even if there's zero like U said, sometimes even without reason films make a surprise. Wildest things happened in box office.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Juby

[Brainbug]

4 hours ago, 21C said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUqkqitTIBg

Bye to China.

 

Why? The country named Republic of China will get to see it, no?

 

Spoiler

Am i in trouble now

 

[Tarintino]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

I was 16 and this was the very first film I followed day by day. I remember this case very clearly, especially viral marketing and big hype (even in my country).

 

After Heath's death predictions still were low. Much lower than final results, sometimes lower than Iron Man's gross. EW forecast gave TDK $255 mln, The Weekend Warrior $305-310 mln if I remember correctly (4-5 months after Ledger died). Your argument is invalid here. Predictions are always only predictions, it means nothing. If not Shrek 2, I'll give You another example - Jurassic World predictions were max. $400 mln even 2 weeks pre-release and JW did $652M domestically. Can You tell me reasons why? Why no one saw this is going to be so huge? I'll tell You - because such things happens!

https://deadline.com/2015/06/jurassic-world-all-time-box-office-opening-record-tracking-social-media-1201443293/

 

I already explain why Begins had only "solid" box office run, and that reception of the film - even with smaller B.O. succes - was even better than Shrek's + Batman was bigger name after regaining reputation with Begins.

 

I don't care what everyone saw before Ledger's death and after that, it was still only predicting!! Before no one died everyone expected $80-120 mln opening weekend for Jurassic World, and after still no one died everyone start to thinking about $120-160 mln for Jurassic World. And finally the film opened with $209 mln which no one ever expected. No one expected JW will defeat Age of Ultron, no one knew Spider-Man will defeat Attack of the Clones, no one expected that Black Panther will break over $450 mln, but he become the third $700M-grosser. Such things happens all the time, films break-out over our predictions. What people predicted for TDK (especially after B&R and Batman Begins's runs, forgeting how big Batman name was and how many tickets were sold for the first Tim Burton's film + current tickets prices) is no argument here.

 

There's planty of reasons to think that TDK would have performed better than Pirates 2, and even if there's zero like U said, sometimes even without reason films make a surprise. Wildest things happened in box office.

 

 

TDK was great but its gross was massively inflated due to Heath's death, especially considering his death was a direct result of trying to perfect his joker role. The WW gross tripled from BB. A similar thing happened with F7 when it rocketed to 1.5b worldwide after the death of Paul Walker. No-one believed the F&F franchise doubled from 6 to 7 due to the goodwill from the franchise alone

[Hatebox]

2 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

TDK was great but its gross was massively inflated due to Heath's death, especially considering his death was a direct result of trying to perfect his joker role. The WW gross tripled from BB. A similar thing happened with F7 when it rocketed to 1.5b worldwide after the death of Paul Walker. No-one believed the F&F franchise doubled from 6 to 7 due to the goodwill from the franchise alone

 

The Austin Powers sequel also quadrupled the first movie's gross following Mike Myer's death.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, Hatebox said:

 

The Austin Powers sequel also quadrupled the first movie's gross following Mike Myer's death.

 

Not an apples to apples comp. Austin Powers 1 was not pushed as anything resembling the tentpole the 2nd one was pushed as.

[Hatebox]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

 

Not an apples to apples comp. Austin Powers 1 was not pushed as anything resembling the tentpole the 2nd one was pushed as.

 

No, it's a valid comparison begause Batman Begins was, by SH movie standards, also a leggy sleeper hit which its sequel cashed in on. And we know from Batman '89 that the Joker + an amazing marketing campaign = $$$

[Juby]

5 hours ago, Tarintino said:

TDK was great but its gross was massively inflated due to Heath's death, especially considering his death was a direct result of trying to perfect his joker role. 

 

Another bulls*it. Heath died three months after he finishes his work on TDK. He has insomnia problem after divorce. And he was barely known actor in 2008 when he died. People would have show up for his Joker no matter what.

 

5 hours ago, Tarintino said:

The WW gross tripled from BB.

 

As other sequels has. And BB box office run was only solid because. . . I won't repeat it again.

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Juby

[Shawn Robbins]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hype for Dark Knight did explode close to release. Peter Travers review comparing it to Heat definitely started the final surge. That said even on that thursday not many expected it to break OW record. I remember asking Xiayun who to me is a GOAT when it comes to making predictions and he gave it < 10% chance. of course it was an era where there were barely any theaters with reserved seating(I am not sure if one existed at all) and so we only had sellouts data that was tracked by different folks. 

 

I remember even at BOM, folks were more confident about Indy 4 than TDK. there were huge number of folks who were in > 400m club for indy( I forgot if it was @Marek the Jedi or another poster who started that club). After Iron Man exploded in May that year we had a club for IM > TDK and many believed that was possible. I remember playing @baumer summer game where it was only me and @MovieMan89 who believed TDK to beat Indy 4. Also good ol' @Shawn made the 1st prediction for TDK to break OW record, but that was probably late june/early july timeframe. 

 

That said we will have a good idea of Batman's potential now in couple of days based on how presales goes tomorrow. overseas I am not expecting much. 500m+ would be great. But domestic I feel this could challenge TDK if the hype persists. 

@baumer's summer game... that brings back so many memories.

[thesmoothknight]

 

Might be getting our first reactions today. No embargo as of today. 

[Knights of Ren]

Just secured my ticket for 8pm on Thursday 3/3!!  First person to buy a seat in that theater lol, much better experience than NWH. 

[WittyUsername]

How are the tickets selling?

[AdrianL]

Besides premium screens Thursday night, in my area sales definitely looks soft-ish. Not too worried though, let's see how sales are by tomorrow. 

[BruiseCruise]

Lot of people on twitter are saying that on the fandango app it shows available but when they go to buy it its immediately unavailable

Edited February 10, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Besides premium screens Thursday night, in my area sales definitely looks soft-ish. Not too worried though, let's see how sales are by tomorrow. 

It hasn't even been an hour. 

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

How are the tickets selling?

Fine. Definitely not blowing the doors off (at my theater at least). Maybe like double Black Widow after the first hour?

[XXR vs XXR]

 

[cax16]

Keep expectations in check folks, DC hasn’t had a movie open over 100m(domestically)since the first Wonder Woman. Ticket sales are fine at my theatre but this isn’t some marvel movie rush like I’ve seen before. 

[grim22]

46 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

How are the tickets selling?

 

Pretty clear sales trends in SoCal - IMAX and PLF are first preference and are filling up really well. Some IMAX are sold out again, AMC Dolby seems like second choice which are also selling out. Normal shows are slower but steady sales.

 

6pm and later shows are selling better than the 3pm shows (makes sense with people still being at work at that time), the 3pm sales will basically be a bonus for previews.

 

The Wednesday 7pm AMC Dolby shows are all pretty much gone in SoCal. Front rows only left.

[excel1]

give it time, will easily be #1 all time preseller..