MEMORIAL DAY 2021 WEEKEND THREAD | AQP2 19.3 Fri, Cruella 7.7 | SALE: $5 OFF FIRST MONTH OF GOLD

[grey ghost]

Raya is free starting Friday.

 

Can't wait to show my 4 year old girl.

[The Panda]

On 5/30/2021 at 12:29 PM, Krissykins said:

As for Cruella, I hope Black Widow isn’t destined for similar numbers, even double Cruella wouldn’t be good. 

I think at this point, anything is good for the delayed 2020 films.

 

Granted, I would expect there’d be much higher interest in Widow than Cruella

[The Panda]

22 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Why we shouldn't be comparing number against pre-pandemic level? If you read every Federal reserve report or bureau number, they are comparing unemployment rate and a lot of other metrics against pre-pandemic number. That is called gap analysis, and see how far we close to where things supposed to be.

 

Nothing wrong comparing number against pre-pandemic level if we are genuinely preparing ourselves for recovery stage, instead of being self-content.  No matter how it is impossible to achieve at the moment 

There’s a major issue here though. We don’t really have that strong of a prior for what individual movies themselves should be doing in a given year in order to say “They fell this amount short of where they should have been pre-pandemic”.

 

With unemployment and industry sector numbers, we have solid information to have good projections of where unemployment and such should have been pre-pandemic. For the theater industry you would want to compare total box office revenue and also consider prior trends to see how the theatrical industry is doing relative to how they were before, and if we’re seeing any signs of recovery.

 

This type of analysis won’t work as well when comparing individual movies by themselves because even pre-pandemic their BO grosses were highly volatile and hard to predict (whereas you could probably do a pretty good projection of a year’s total box office revenue).

[Blankments]

On 5/31/2021 at 10:20 AM, filmlover said:

Spirit Untamed is feeling left out too lmao.

 

After The Prom, this is the only appropriate reaction to anything James Corden:

 

To clarify I specifically meant films for children that could capture a demographic older than like 13. I don’t think Peter Rabbit or Spirit fall under that lol

[Blankments]

18 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

There's still a rabbit crying in his carrot...every day, he feels ignored and rejected:)...

 

Grannies count as adults:)...

I’m just saying my parents, who generally go see every Pixar or Disney animated movie in theaters and who are 62 and 72, have absolutely zero interest in any movie this summer besides In the Heights, and if Luca was getting a theatrical release (or if Raya had waited to summer), they’d at least have a second movie to see lol 

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 hours ago, wildphantom said:

John Campea said on his show yesterday ‘a little birdie tells me the Cruella DPA numbers aren’t good’. Take with a pinch of salt, but he and Meyer Burnett have multiple sources in the industry and at the studios.  If true - great news!  Move your PVOD back 45 days and then stick a charge on it. That way you’re getting extra revenue AND not putting a perfect version of your movie online for free the minute it opens! 

if they are waiting 45 days , there will be no premium period. They just be better off having a more expensive D+ tier where they get access to movies a month earlier

[poncho]

On 5/31/2021 at 2:22 AM, Porthos said:

Not really.  They haven't released anything concrete about any of their D+ shows.  Just vague platitudes and some relative comparisons.

 

Like, take this comment about The Falcon and the Winter Soldier:

 

 

I cut off stuff from third party trackers, as it's fairly irrelevant.  Disney itself hasn't released a damn thing except total subscribers.

 

I personally don't like it one bit, but it doesn't say much about the success, or lack thereof, of Cruella.  

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, poncho said:

 

 

 

So, Mulan has about 1Mish streams, or $30Mish in its biggest weekend of streams (so it probably made $60M streaming)...

 

And Cruella makes $20.5M streaming in its biggest weekend for streaming revenue (so it's probably only gonna make about $40M streaming).

 

Those numbers are terrible for box office replacement - should have just made them free and gotten the subscriber numbers where the industry thought they might be...

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, poncho said:

 

 

 

Yeah, like I said, third party tracker.  There's some debate about how accurate they are and if it varies by tracker, but it is true that it's better than nothing.

 

Probably.  Best to do like for like comparisons like is mentioned there in the tweet.

 

(also are more subs now for D+ than there were then, but, still no theatrical release, either)

[TwoMisfits]

Double post...but I guess this is the reason Disney hasn't released streaming numbers...truly on their hardcore base is buying...although I guess we know how big that base is...

Edited June 1, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Madhuvan]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, Mulan has about 1Mish streams, or $30Mish in its biggest weekend of streams (so it probably made $60M streaming)...

 

And Cruella makes $20.5M streaming in its biggest weekend for streaming revenue (so it's probably only gonna make about $40M streaming).

 

Those numbers are terrible for box office replacement - should have just made them free and gotten the subscriber numbers where the industry thought they might be...

Correct me if I am wrong but Samba TV only counts TV right?? No purchases from mobile/ipads/pc/laptops

 

So , how is this bad? Atleast 1.5x if we count all sources so 30m over the 3 days weekend and plus 20m OW. 

[Madhuvan]

Adding to this , Samba TV is saying 2m people watched Friends over Weekend. This alone makes their tracking system flawed and limited. 2m for friends doesn't even make sense. It's not a b tier show.

[ogkalu]

1 hour ago, poncho said:

 

 

 

Samba's numbers don't track with Nielsen's. ( For example 2.9m 3 day viewership for soul from them vs 1.669 billion minutes streamed from Nielsen ( i.e some 16m to 18.m streams ). And no one really has any idea what they are measuring, how they are measuring it, whom they are measuring from, etc. except that's it's an extrapolation of data from some customers (who were willing to share data) from a few TV brands. 

At best, you can hope that they're good for comparisons (i.e Cruella is doing about 37% worse than Mulan whatever number that may actually be) but there's no reason to believe that either.   

@Madhuvan @TwoMisfits

Edited June 1, 2021 by ogkalu

[Legion Again]

Yeah, 3rd party data always comes with some dubiousness, but Samba in particular I do not recommend paying attention to.

[ThomasNicole]

SambaTV lol. I'm waiting for Nielsen numbers which at least have credibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

Raya 3-day actual came in at 2.342, it’s juiced by DFs and holiday but still, one of the biggest 13th weekends ever.

[Jamiem]

The main issue with Samba TV if I remember correctly is that it is Opt-In so sampling is not aligned with the US/Global populations according to age/gender/race etc. which can give a skewed result.

 

Also Nielsen is also only giving us data of viewing through TV as well (and only US) so really it is more a baseline of TV/Film results rather than a complete set of data, although it is still generally the closest we get to ratings from streaming services. 

[titanic2187]

10 hours ago, The Panda said:

This type of analysis won’t work as well when comparing individual movies by themselves because even pre-pandemic their BO grosses were highly volatile and hard to predict (whereas you could probably do a pretty good projection of a year’s total box office revenue).

Ohhh, there are dozens of projection using pre-pandemic movie like IT2 or IM to project AQP2's preview number in buzz tracking thread, and I can tell you, they worked pretty well at +-5%. So if the momentum of presale can match pre-pandemic level, it is not too crazy then to compare them in term of overall gross then right?

 

On 6/1/2021 at 7:02 AM, wildphantom said:

I get what you’re saying. But you can’t get as far with half a tank of gas.  That’s all it is. We’re not here to write reports on it. We can just call it what it is….box office mid-vaccination campaign with limited capacity. Quiet Place’s weekend was spectacular and relatively way better than POTC5 for example. 

My argument was around internal multipliers. Which, in my opinion, can be just thrown straight out of the window as a comparison in the current scenario. When it’s a level playing field then, sure. 

 Again, zero contradiction to analyse number against pre-pandemic level without losing the perception of we are still in pandemic world.  

 

Most importantly, there are not many pandemic releases for reasonable sample size, let alone something open as big as AQP2. So how are we suppose to compare? Of course we look for pre-pandemic players. 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 5/30/2021 at 2:38 PM, Porthos said:

Yes, but it's now slightly larger than it was yesterday, even with the "font fix".  Had to shrink my browser zoom size just for this website to try to make it a bit better.

 

I reckon @Shawn is poking with configuration files behind the scenes, so I'll be patient until it's all sorted out.  

 

(still slightly annoying, mind )

Weird... I actually haven't changed anything there (still waiting to hear from our designer on how to fix it). Will definitely look into it.

 

EDIT: Try switching that toggle back on now, should look normal (still waiting on the permanent fix solution).

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Shawn said:

EDIT: Try switching that toggle back on now, should look normal (still waiting on the permanent fix solution).

Much better! Thanks, Shawn! 👍