BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[ZattMurdock]

33 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

No offense, but why did you post the same tweet thrice?

I didn’t. Some odd bug while editing.

[Ronin46]

34 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

You know they’ve outright said they’re easing prices as the service fills out and originals expand right? Why do people keep saying this like it’s some grand conspiracy. They’ve literally laid it out as their plan 

 

and they don’t care about the other streamers. Other than Netflix nobody is close them and never will be. 

 

Netflix has double Disney + subscription worldwide at over 200 million. 

Disney has 107 million at last count. 

Amazon just paid 8 billion for MGM and have 200 million Amazon Prime subscriptions. They obviously have a plan to develop some of the titles they have inherited into spin off movies and tv shows because they own the IP now. 

AT&T just merged its Time Warner and Discovery. HBO Max (who they own) has 64 millon subscription services and Discovery has 15 millions subscribers .

 

So not sure about Disney not caring or any other streamers being "close" to them. There will be other mergers in the future I have no doubt. 

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Ronin46

[eddyxx]

Will be interesting to see how Black Widow’s legs are effected by PA.

[TwoMisfits]

This is a summer legs' problem...

 

From Deadline...

 

"With kids not largely vaccinated yet, that could be the factor in keeping Moms at home with Black Widow, as there was a low family turnout here with parents at 10% and kids at 13%, to the general audience’s dominant 77%."

 

And that's off a lower total opening...what's the last MCU movie to only pull 23% of its OW audience from families?  And if we're talking "kids", I'm assuming Deadline is 12 and under or 17 and under - either way, they were only 13% of the audience at Black Widow.  Again, I'd love to know when a Marvel movie went that low...

Edited July 12, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

@lorddemaxus @HouseOfTheSun I said this once and I'll say it again. It's clear you guys don't see eye-to-eye with one another and you often derail threads with your arguments. It's better for the both of you if you ignore each other, whether it be literally using the Ignore functionalities we have here and let each other be.

 

I'm really tired of the fighting you guys get into between each other and I'm really upset that you are still doing this despite the fact I asked both of you to ignore one another.

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

Moderation

 

@lorddemaxus @HouseOfTheSun I said this once and I'll say it again. It's clear you guys don't see eye-to-eye with one another and you often derail threads with your arguments. It's better for the both of you if you ignore each other, whether it be literally using the Ignore functionalities we have here and let each other be.

 

I'm really tired of the fighting you guys get into between each other and I'm really upset that you are still doing this despite the fact I asked both of you to ignore one another.

You understand why I get pissed when this dude continues to flame me for no reason other than the fact that he doesn’t like what I’m saying, which by the way has no intent directed towards him. I once again gave a harmless opinion and he’s the one who came at me because he took it upon himself to be insulted for some reason. 
 

I frankly don’t mind if he disagrees with me but calling my opinion troll bait out in the open? I’m gonna respond to him considering he’s asking for it. 
 

I have heeded your warnings. I read his comments and move on and don’t respond to him. But if he comes at me I’m not going to hold back. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by HouseOfTheSun

[Darth Lehnsherr]

A good OW but with the MCU we expect record breaking stuff so can understand some of the disappointed. Just indicates we should perhaps lower all expectations as we're still a bit away from normalcy at this stage. Also puts a better light on what Fast 9 did on OW IMO.

Without knowing the expectations of PA hard to gauge whether this will change Disney's mind for future releases or will they just stay the course as circumstances hopefully improve.

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I have heeded your warnings. I read his comments and move on and don’t respond to him. But if he comes at me I’m not going to hold back. 

Well that doesn't help matters at all. It's just fanning the flames and making things worse. If Maxus comes at you, just report it and a staff member will give out punishments.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

- For the number of uber-Marvel fans and uber-Disney fans (since I chat with those folks on the regular), only 2M is kinda horrible

Can't see 2M in isolation. I assume 75% of revenue is from US/Can, that means 1.5 buys, may be 2.5-3M viewers + 7M who watched in theater. That's 9.5-10M who watched it.

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

Well that doesn't help matters at all. It's just fanning the flames and making things worse. If Maxus comes at you, just report it and a staff member will give out punishments.

No it doesn’t help matters but i don’t want to be lumped in with him as someone who starts the derailing. But I will simply report from now on b

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

How is that a better move for Disney

Then it would have chance to do $200-300m ($60-100M to Disney) in China, South Asia, South East Asia & Chile-Peru. Now it will struggle to do $100M. (<$25M to Disney).

 

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Jamiem]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Then it would have chance to do $200-300m in China, South Asia, South East Asia & Chile-Peru. Now it will struggle to do $100M.

That's true but Disney kind of got screwed by COVID and lack of vaccines internationally, them pushing back to July was meant to help with worldwide simultaneous launch but that didn't happen and they had already spent a bunch marketing the film so couldn't afford to push back again.  

 

I feel the 2m number seems pretty weak but we also don't know how spread out purchases are, aside from third party data which is certainly less reliable than Disney, hopefully we get an update in the coming weeks or end of PA (although I'm not holding my breath) Also I know we are in agreement they should have charged a small fee in Hotstar countries (which could have possibly improved the numbers a small amount) 

 

Hopefully Shang-Chi sticks to the 45 day window and then we (and more importantly Disney) can somewhat compare the two releases. 

[Mojoguy]

Biggest thing I learned his week is that BOT topics can still reach 1000 posts. We are back.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Disney could never have another physical media sale or tv deal and they’d come out better than before just because of that simply subscription to D+

 

as for saying that PA needs to go so BW could have made 10m more domestic?

That is actually a valid point. Subscription is an additional revenue which didn't existed before, but it is replacing licensing fee they received from Netflix for putting their films on streaming and Home Media in general. I don't have too much time to check on numbers, @Jamiem may help with that, if subscription is able to cancel those two out, then that will be a big win in Disney PA hand and I will be wrong with my whole "Home Media revenue loss" rant.

 

Re 2nd point, may be yeah I was a bit freaked out yesterday with low #s, but then Netflix is dropping $150-200M budgeted films with $0 box office. So guess box office is a bonus at this time 👀

 

[Dementeleus]

The thing about Netflix is they spend very little (if anything) on marketing. The cost of marketing offsets a huge chunk of theatrical revenue for the studios (except for those megahits), so I don’t think the disparity is quite as dramatic. Then again, studios are in a hybrid streaming/theatrical model and Netflix is pure streaming so they’re each playing slightly different games. 

[Jamiem]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That is actually a valid point. Subscription is an additional revenue which didn't existed before, but it is replacing licensing fee they received from Netflix for putting their films on streaming and Home Media in general. I don't have too much time to check on numbers, @Jamiem may help with that, if subscription is able to cancel those two out, then that will be a big win in Disney PA hand and I will be wrong with my whole "Home Media revenue loss" rant.

 

Re 2nd point, may be yeah I was a bit freaked out yesterday with low #s, but then Netflix is dropping $150-200M budgeted films with $0 box office. So guess box office is a bonus at this time 👀

 

Did this a while back in the streaming wars thread FY 2020 vs FY2019. 

 

Studio Entertainment year ended October 3rd 2020 was $9.64B Revenue with and Operating Income of $2.5B.

 

This broken down in Theatrical Distribution ($2.13B), Home Entertainment ($1.53B) and TV, SVOD & Other ($5.98B)

 

For the previous year (which was I think peak revenues for the studios off memory):

Studio Entertainment year ended September 28th 2019 $11.13B Rev and Operating Income of $2.69B

 

Theatrical Distribution ($4.73B), Home Entertainment ($1.73B) and TV, SVOD & Other ($4.67B)

 

Streaming helped studio a lot, impact of missing theatrical was minimal although if they get both firing will be massive, also studios now making TV shows helps a bunch with revenue I imagine. 

 

Source for numbers: https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5251629

 

More detailed post 

 

 

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by Jamiem

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

The thing about Netflix is they spend very little (if anything) on marketing. The cost of marketing offsets a huge chunk of theatrical revenue for the studios (except for those megahits), so I don’t think the disparity is quite as dramatic. Then again, studios are in a hybrid streaming/theatrical model and Netflix is pure streaming so they’re each playing slightly different games. 

I feel studios are kinda trying that too.

 

At least i'm finding Warner marketing this year ridiculous, trailers dropping very late (like on streaming) and kinda low advertising. 

 

Disney aren't very different, BW marketing before pandemic are way more massive than what they did the second time. Even Cruella seems to have a marketing focused primarily on social media, also like streaming movies.

 

I'm not sure how much this is impacting on box officw tho. But i feel Suicide Squad can suffer for that, less than a month to drop and marketing are almost non-existent.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Did this a while back in the streaming wars thread FY 2020 vs FY2019. 

 

Studio Entertainment year ended October 3rd 2020 was $9.64B Revenue with and Operating Income of $2.5B.

 

This broken down in Theatrical Distribution ($2.13B), Home Entertainment ($1.53B) and TV, SVOD & Other ($5.98B)

 

For the previous year (which was I think peak revenues for the studios off memory):

Studio Entertainment year ended September 28th 2019 $11.13B Rev and Operating Income of $2.69B

 

Theatrical Distribution ($4.73B), Home Entertainment ($1.73B) and TV, SVOD & Other ($4.67B)

 

Streaming helped studio a lot, impact of missing theatrical was minimal although if they get both firing will be massive, also studios now making TV shows helps a bunch with revenue I imagine. 

Wow that's huge.

 

But after Netflix reveal they generate +20B on revenues in 2019 i already imagine why almost all studios are desperate to enter strong on streaming.

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

The thing about Netflix is they spend very little (if anything) on marketing. The cost of marketing offsets a huge chunk of theatrical revenue for the studios (except for those megahits), so I don’t think the disparity is quite as dramatic. Then again, studios are in a hybrid streaming/theatrical model and Netflix is pure streaming so they’re each playing slightly different games. 

Studios seem to really overspend on marketing for some movies.

[Jamiem]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Wow that's huge.

 

But after Netflix reveal they generate +20B on revenues in 2019 i already imagine why almost all studios are desperate to enter strong on streaming.

That's just for the studio, for DTC (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+), which is more comparable to Netflix, they made $4B last quarter (will be over $16B for the FY) Netflix will be around $30B for their FY. 

 

As I mentioned in the long post there was some revenue eliminations (roughly $2B) between studio and DTC as when Disney sells to themselves they can count that revenue twice.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Jamiem