Weekend Thread (17-19 Sep 21)

[Valonqar]

Dune OS run puts a fork in the bomb BS. 36.8M official w/o CIS and 37.5M-37.6M with CIS are terrific numbers. 

 

F9 still isn't done yet lol so movies that want to pass it OS will have to work their butts off. 

 

 

[Mojoguy]

Shang finally beating Black Widow Dom in 2 days! 

 

Should cross 200m in 2 weeks.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Dune OS run puts a fork in the bomb BS. 36.8M official w/o CIS and 37.5M-37.6M with CIS are terrific numbers. 

 

F9 still isn't done yet lol so movies that want to pass it OS will have to work their butts off. 

 

 

You expect a lot from American media and box office community. TENET did better OS than Dune but was still reported a bomb because of low US number despite everyone knowing it didnt release in half the country.

 

In these same markets of Dune, TENET opened with $33.5M. Excluding Russia $29M, which is same as Dune. 

[ThomasNicole]

I think media was harder on Tenet because of the backlash against Nolan.

 

If Dune opens with 33M (which is very possible), it will be seeing as a win because it would be the biggest WB opening, even if it's nothing special. Then if drops 70% on second weekend everyone will blame HBO Max and use international numbers to proof it have an audience, that's it.

[Valonqar]

49 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You expect a lot from American media and box office community. TENET did better OS than Dune but was still reported a bomb because of low US number despite everyone knowing it didnt release in half the country.

 

In these same markets of Dune, TENET opened with $33.5M. Excluding Russia $29M, which is same as Dune. 

 

I agree but I also think that they didn't adjust expectations when Tenet came out and, for reasons I forgot, it was expected to save the cinema. OTOH, Dune is opening in a different environment where HBO Max shadow is hanging over it so any underperformance dom will be blamed on Max as it should. That turns its OS success into a proof against hybrid release. Tenet just had ridiculous expectations attached to it despite dire WW market outlook due to pandemic.

[Krissykins]

Gitesh is going really hard for Shang-Chi today lol. 11 tweets in the past 24 hours. 

[AJG]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I would question the actual HDR nature of a torrent download tbh. Wouldn’t it be a compressed version? 

 

It would be the exact same version as HBO Max. It can also be played 24p which would technically make the torrent better quality than the the HBO app.

[Krissykins]

56 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It would be the exact same version as HBO Max. It can also be played 24p which would technically make the torrent better quality than the the HBO app.

Yeh I wouldn’t describe HBOMax as being in native 4K anyway. But torrents downloaded online certainly aren’t. 

[YM!]

So any guesses on OW for DEH?

[Mojoguy]

I got way too excited, Shang over 180m by Tuesday THEN over BW by Friday. 45 day window wins over PA.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

Very curious about Japan, Korea and China. In UK should be huge.

 

 

 

I'm extremely excited about Dune and really hope it does well. But not getting any buzz over here about it, don't know what basis the idea it would be huge here is based on - doesn't come across to me as being aligned to mainstream British audiences. Maybe I'm wrong. The late opening here really, REALLY won't help. Should have got in before Bond, not waited for after. 

[ThomasNicole]

24 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

I'm extremely excited about Dune and really hope it does well. But not getting any buzz over here about it, don't know what basis the idea it would be huge here is based on - doesn't come across to me as being aligned to mainstream British audiences. Maybe I'm wrong. The late opening here really, REALLY won't help. Should have got in before Bond, not waited for after. 

The book is huge at UK, pretty much because of this.

 

And yes, ideally it would be opened this weekend, but at least is not too close to Bond, it will be on the 4th weekend when Dune drops.

 

[DAJK]

47 minutes ago, YourMother said:

So any guesses on OW for DEH?

Based on presales in Canada I’m looking at, I’d guess 13-17.

[Napoleon]

Are there any markets left for The Suicide Squad to open? It will really finish at $165 million worldwide? That would be close to an 80% drop from the 2016 film, that's insane.

[Cooper Legion]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Gitesh is going really hard for Shang-Chi today lol. 11 tweets in the past 24 hours. 

[wildphantom]

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I would question the actual HDR nature of a torrent download tbh. Wouldn’t it be a compressed version? 

yeah, as others have said - it’ll be the same file that’s on HBO Max.  It’ll be available uncompressed if people want it.  Again, I’m not condoning any of it of course, but it’s futile to ignore it. 
 

I’m just happy the movie is out for weeks internationally, before it’s compromised with no going back.  

[lorddemaxus]

Watched Promare on the big screen today and was surprised by the crowd there (although I guess not that surprising considering the number of people into anime here). About the same size as the Shang-Chi crowd.

[MikeQ]

Fantastic 3rd weekend drop for Shang-Chi. Compared to other comic book films, for context:

 

Best 3rd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies

 

Title (Year) — Third Weekend Gross (Drop from Second Weekend)

1. Black Panther (2018) — 66.3 million (-40.6%)
2. Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 63.3 million (-57.1%)
3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 62.1 million (-45.9%)
4. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 55.6 million (-46.0%)
5. Spider-Man (2002) — 45.0 million (-36.9%)
6. The Dark Knight (2008) — 42.7 million (-43.2%)
7. Wonder Woman (2017) — 41.3 million (-29.5%)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 38.9 million (-50.0%)
9. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 35.8 million (-50.7%)
10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 35.7 million (-42.5%)
11. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 34.7 million (-46.9%)
12. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 32.9 million (-54.7%)
13. Iron Man (2008) — 31.8 million (-37.8%)
14. Deadpool (2016) — 31.1 million (-44.9%)
15. Aquaman (2018) — 31.0 million (-40.5%)
16. Joker (2019) — 29.3 million (-47.6%)
17. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 29.0 million (-50.1%)
18. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 26.4 million (-49.3%)
19. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 25.6 million (-38.0%)
20. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 25.1 million (-40.4%)
21. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 24.8 million (-45.2%)
22. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 23.4 million (-54.5%)
23. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 23.2 million (-46.7%)
24. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 22.2 million (-49.9%)
25. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 21.8 million (-61.8%)
26. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) — 21.7 million (-37.5%)
27. Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) — 21.0 million (-53.7%)
28. Suicide Squad (2016) — 20.9 million (-52.1%)
29. Man of Steel (2013) — 20.7 million (-49.8%)

Peace,

Mike

[Cooper Legion]

The Sat to Sat drops have been pretty similar to Spider-man (2002), Wonder Woman, and BP so far.  
 

3rd Sat vs 1st Sat:

SM1 -54%

BP -54.5%

WW -56%

SC -58%

[Cooper Legion]

Lot of MCU 4th weekends confounded by some holiday or another.  
 

The best 4th Sat drop is Gotg -28%, which is very mildly inflated by returning to school increasing the Sat share of moviegoing. Next are TDW, DS1, and Ragnarok all chilling around -30-31%… on Thanksgiving Sat.    
 

So if SC can score a “best in MCU” 4th Sat drop to match its best in MCU 3rd Sat drop, that looks like a hold of 69-72% for ~ 6.75-7.05M and a weekend of ~14.9M-15.5M.   
 

This is an optimistic case, but it could target TROS 4th weekend gross of 15.187M

Edited September 20, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores