THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[Nikostar]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's only half a joke. I do believe all of those things about society, but I don't think you can draw those conclusions off the Tuesday preview numbers for Encanto lol. But I also think the Gucci preview number is kinda bad (given the tracking and Gaga fanbase)

I think Gaga fans rushed out last night and maybe today but this is still an adult film with Mediocre reviews released in COVID times. Not sure why people expected big numbers. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Nikostar

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gucci is only 360k behind Knives Out, so I'd say that's a strong start for it. Encanto.... eh, it's around what I expected it to do.

16-17M weekend may be.

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Republicans will sweep the 2022 midterms and then steal the election in 2024.

hey hey.... at least there's a chance the senate won't be taken

[Cmasterclay]

1.5/6/2/7/8/5 for Encanto. 29.5 m five day.

 

1.3/4/1.5/3/3/2 for Gucci. 13.5m five day.

 

Movies are more frontloaded and lose momentum faster than ever.

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

hey hey.... at least there's a chance the senate won't be taken

 

American economy is roaring, Covid will hopefully be done, things will look very different 9 months form now.

[filmlover]

The best news Encanto would enjoy is being the first animated movie since the pandemic started to hit $100M. Which it might need a push to reach there if it gets close enough (by the time the Christmas to New Year's Day stretch arrives it'll be on D+ for free and Sing 2, which is likely doing $100M+, will be opening as the main family attraction for the holidays).

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

American economy is roaring, Covid will hopefully be done, things will look very different 9 months form now.

COVID is far from over, the increase from the baseline we were at means this will be both the most infectious and deadly wave yet. COVID is endemic and our society is not ever going to recover from it.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

1.5/6/2/7/8/5 for Encanto. 29.5 m five day.

Ralph	Moana	Coco	En (R)	En (M)	En (C)
3.80	2.60	2.30	1.50	1.50	1.50
14.54	12.52	10.88	6.25	6.25	6.25
10.17	9.93	8.92	4.37	4.96	5.12
21.71	21.79	18.98	9.33	10.88	10.90
21.18	21.33	18.38	9.10	10.65	10.56
13.35	13.51	13.44	5.74	6.74	7.72
84.75	81.68	72.90	36.30	40.98	42.06

 

 

This is more likely.

 

R, M, C are what those 3 did, and En (R), (M) & (C) is what Encanto will do with what looked like 6-6.5M WED last night. More likely closer to Moana.

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

1.5/6/2/7/8/5 for Encanto. 29.5 m five day.

 

1.3/4/1.5/3/3/2 for Gucci. 13.5m five day.

 

Movies are more frontloaded and lose momentum faster than ever.

Those multiplier guesses are whack, lol. 
 

Movies tend to drop around 25% on Thanksgiving, not like that 65% drop you’ve given to House of Gucci. 

[Krissykins]

$935k for Resident Evil is more than the $750k tracking suggested. 

[picores]

Around 40m 5-day for Encanto can be considered a success. 

[Eric S'ennui]

21 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Vaccines for small kids have barely just started rolling out, so it'll be a while before family movies get back on their feet, if at all since most parents are likely used to the day and date thing now.

This has always been something feeding on the back of my mind. I do think all this day-and-date stuff has conditioned a lot of kids to just watch stuff at home and for parents to go with the cheaper option of a $20 rental/streaming subscription, and I think those demos are a lot more susceptible to this kind of stuff. It would not surprise me if day-and-date stuff like this continues for animated movies or other kids films.

[MrPink]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

COVID is far from over, the increase from the baseline we were at means this will be both the most infectious and deadly wave yet. COVID is endemic and our society is not ever going to recover from it.

 

Given the recent availability of boosters and the lack of an emergence of a new variant, I don't think this assumption sounds right. It could just mean we have higher valleys and lower peaks for the near future.

 

I get that it's Thanksgiving but the last few days showed a minor slowdown of increasing cases (so much that the 7 day average dropped slightly) so we may not be getting the rapid increase of waves past. Well, at least in the US.

Edited November 24, 2021 by MrPink

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Those multiplier guesses are whack, lol. 
 

Movies tend to drop around 25% on Thanksgiving, not like that 65% drop you’ve given to House of Gucci. 

You should always assume that the worst possible things will happen, in box office and in life.

 

(This view endorsed by Cmasterclay, forum poster, not Clay Miller, candidate for political office.)

[PDC1987]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

COVID is far from over, the increase from the baseline we were at means this will be both the most infectious and deadly wave yet. COVID is endemic and our society is not ever going to recover from it.

If we recovered from the 1918 pandemic, WWI, WWII etc we will recover from COVID.

[grim22]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Given the recent availability of boosters and the lack of an emergence of a new variant, I don't think this assumption sounds right. It could just mean we have higher valleys and lower peaks for the near future.

There's also a drop in hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated population as well. It does feel like the end of the pandemic and it becoming an endemic is close.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Given the recent availability of boosters and the lack of an emergence of a new variant, I don't think this assumption sounds right. It could just mean we have higher valleys and lower peaks for the near future.

Eventually things would burn out without a new variant, but the high number of cases in unvaccinated people means that they are all possible incubators. We only need one mutation out of a million cases to make an evolutionary leap. Article below is essential reading.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/science/annals-of-medicine/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve

[filmlover]

Everything that falls under the Disney brand itself is likely getting a shortened window this next year since regular releases windows won't be coming back anytime soon after two years of collapsed windows. That said, they're only releasing three movies in theaters in 2022 (Turning Red, Lightyear, and the yet-to-be-announced Disney Animation title set for next Thanksgiving) since all their live-action projects are being dumped on D+ (The Little Mermaid will be the first live-action Disney branded movie to hit screens in almost two years when it comes out Memorial Day 2023).

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Eventually things would burn out without a new variant, but the high number of cases in unvaccinated people means that they are all possible incubators. We only need one mutation out of a million cases to make an evolutionary leap. Article below is essential reading.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/science/annals-of-medicine/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve

 

Of course I expect new variants to emerge, but I also won't speculate on it happening in the very near future to make this 'next wave' the most dangerous yet. Until we do see signs of a variant emerging (even Delta had existed for some months before the wave occurred), I don't think this current wave is necessarily our most dangerous we've experienced. The booster effect may blunt it heavily.

 

I never expect COVID to go away completely but obviously the grand hope is that treatment, medicines, and vaccines will get us to a point where its devastating impact is minimized.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Of course I expect new variants to emerge, but I also won't speculate on it happening in the very near future to make this 'next wave' the most dangerous yet. Until we do see signs of a variant emerging (even Delta had existed for some months before the wave occurred), I don't think this current wave is necessarily our most dangerous we've experienced. The booster effect may blunt it heavily.

 

I never expect COVID to go away completely but obviously the grand hope is that treatment, medicines, and vaccines will get us to a point where its devastating impact is minimized.

I think the potential for this wave is not from variants, it is exponential seasonal and holiday growth from a baseline of 50,000-70,000 cases a day. Remember, the first Delta wave this summer started from about a 15,000 case a day baseline and got up to 200,000 cases daily. The same kind of growth among unvaccinated and unboosted people could lead to 300,000 a day.

All I know is, everyone here, get your freaking booster. The CDC guidance, even the new one, is behind every epidemologist and public health expert. It changes the efficacy from about 68 percent back to 95.6 percent. Get your boosters, people.