The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

The time breakdowns really show how capacity limitations kept shows packed all day long for NWH, whereas The Batman only peaks at early and primetime slots.

[EmpireCity]

Sonic 2 goes on sale Monday, March 14th.  

[BruiseCruise]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Sonic 2 goes on sale Monday, March 14th.  

250m DOM i can feel it

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 2/27/2022 at 9:42 AM, PenguinXXR said:

So it looks like alpha may hit half of NWH, ATP adjusted. Other chains are looking weaker, maybe 35-45%.

 

Alpha is still about 30-33% of the overall market, but probably a higher % on previews (40%?). 

 

Based on this, I'm thinking $21-22M previews.

I’ll be sending a bill for my services.

[DAJK]

19 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

250m DOM i can feel it

I'm not there yet, but I'm on board for 200.

[Liiviig 1998]

26 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Sonic 2 goes on sale Monday, March 14th.  

Me thinking 70-75/210-225. 

[EmpireCity]

Ambulance goes on sale March 28th.  

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah but that 20.6 was closest of everyone who gave a number.

 

Funny thing is, I almost put down 21.0m +/-, but that was based on a feeling and not any pure data.    Also almost just went with the NWH comp which ended up the closest of them all.

 

Kiiiiiinda think if I had refined my methodology in the way I wanted (how I took my sample for the record), I would have been closer.

 

Good to know that my analysis on what the hell was going down in Sacto + acting like Dune was pretty much right on the money.  Just didn't have enough data to know how much to adjust.  Good to know for the future.

 

No idea why we don't like DC as much as we do other franchises, but it is what it is.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

T-3 Week Previews

Lost City (Fandango EA 3/19) - 76 (75)

Lost City (Girls Night Out 3/22) - 116 (115)

Lost City (Date Night Out 3/23) - 400 (398)

Lost City (Thursday Only) - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - No Way Home - 5,529 (793)

 

Three days of early shows for Lost City... 😒

What??? There's four different days of previews?

 

...

 

Poor @Eric Says Trans Rights .  Feel for ya, brother. 👍

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What??? There's four different days of previews?

 

...

 

Poor @Eric Says Trans Rights .  Feel for ya, brother. 👍

Saved by the 7/70 line once again, eh old chap?

Edited March 4, 2022 by Villain Legion

[Eric Prime]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

What??? There's four different days of previews?

 

...

 

Poor @Eric Says Trans Rights .  Feel for ya, brother. 👍

...I didn't even notice the Girls Night Out one.

 

This is just stupid.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Saved by the 7/70 line once again, eh old chap?

 

YEP! lololololololollolol 

[poweranimals]

31 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

...I didn't even notice the Girls Night Out one.

 

This is just stupid.

No Batman themed username this weekend? 😮

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

No Batman themed username this weekend? 😮

This is more important at the moment. Fuck Greg Abbott

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Batman (Fri)	PLF	43	607	4,107	10,229	40.15%	$14.65	$60,167.48
		Standard	150	1,504	5,739	21,672	26.48%	$11.16	$64,043.58
	Batman (Fri) Total		193	2,111	9,846	31,901	30.86%	$12.62	$124,211.06

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Batman (Fri)	N	94	1,343	7,783	15,999	48.65%	$13.26	$103,197.41
		Y	99	768	2,063	15,902	12.97%	$10.19	$21,013.65
	Batman (Fri) Total		193	2,111	9,846	31,901	30.86%	$12.62	$124,211.06

 

Spider-Man Fri T-0 - 21,726/32,393 (67.07% sold)

 

Spider-Man Comp

Friday - .453x (32.61m)

Updated Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Batman (Fri)	PLF	43	607	4,107	10,229	40.15%	$14.65	$60,167.48
		Standard	150	1,504	5,739	21,672	26.48%	$11.16	$64,043.58
	Batman (Fri) Total		193	2,111	9,846	31,901	30.86%	$12.62	$124,211.06
T-1	Batman (Sat)	PLF	42	4,065	4,065	10,099	40.25%	$14.34	$58,307.31
		Standard	148	4,091	4,091	21,476	19.05%	$10.48	$42,866.64
	Batman (Sat) Total		190	8,156	8,156	31,575	25.83%	$12.40	$101,173.95
T-2	Batman (Sun)	PLF	43	2,154	2,154	10,229	21.06%	$14.07	$30,309.97
		Standard	143	1,702	1,702	20,919	8.14%	$10.16	$17,288.18
	Batman (Sun) Total		186	3,856	3,856	31,148	12.38%	$12.34	$47,598.15

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Batman (Fri)	N	94	1,343	7,783	15,999	48.65%	$13.26	$103,197.41
		Y	99	768	2,063	15,902	12.97%	$10.19	$21,013.65
	Batman (Fri) Total		193	2,111	9,846	31,901	30.86%	$12.62	$124,211.06
T-1	Batman (Sat)	N	93	4,625	4,625	15,847	29.19%	$14.09	$65,152.94
		Y	97	3,531	3,531	15,728	22.45%	$10.20	$36,021.01
	Batman (Sat) Total		190	8,156	8,156	31,575	25.83%	$12.40	$101,173.95
T-2	Batman (Sun)	N	88	1,753	1,753	15,290	11.47%	$14.69	$25,759.42
		Y	98	2,103	2,103	15,858	13.26%	$10.38	$21,838.73
	Batman (Sun) Total		186	3,856	3,856	31,148	12.38%	$12.34	$47,598.15

 

Spider-Man Fri T-0 - 21,726/32,393 (67.07% sold)

 

Spider-Man Comp

Friday - .453x (32.61m)

 

Well, I thought I had pulled the weekend sales for Spider-Man on Friday, but looks like that was the only day I skipped.  These will be useful for the next big opener at least.

 

[filmlover]

For anyone who lives in or around NYC, it appears Turning Red will be playing at the AMC Empire 25, so make that 2 theaters in the whole country that will be showing in addition to the El Capitan (doubt Disney reports any numbers for it). Guess they had to uphold the bare minimum of their contract requirements once they decided to make it a streaming exclusive since it also had a big premiere at the El Capitan this week.

 

AMC Empire 25 Movie Times | Showtimes and Tickets | New York | Fandango

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:20pm]

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	127.85		1361	7835		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	127.85%		17.67m
TSS [5:40-6:10]	499.87		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	499.87%		20.49m
SC [4:40-5:30]	201.08		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	201.08%		17.69m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	152.45		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	152.45%		17.68m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	314.61		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	314.61%		19.51m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	403.33		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	403.33%		20.57m
ET [4:50-5:20]	183.45		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	183.45%		17.43m
NWH [3:00-4:30]	41.72		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	41.72%		20.86m

COMP NOTE: The comp for Black Widow has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current 

The Batman Actual: 21.6

 

Want to do some analysis here.  Setting aside the now increased possibility that DC (or at least a certain type of DC movie) is just plain weaker in Sacto, I am... intrigued by the difference between BW/SC/LTBC/ET and NWH/Batsy.

 

As folks probably know I have been beating the drum that Sacto 2021 numbers were just completely out of whack with Sacto 2018-2019 numbers ever since last April.  And I do think they still are as NWH still was well under EG/TROS comps, for instance.  But what I am wondering is if 17.7 vs 20.9 is showing a trend toward recovery or not. 

 

My theory all along has been that the Sacto market, for whatever reason, recovered FAR FASTER than the overall DOM market, making previous comps pretty much gar-bage.  And I know my local market recovered almost instantly coz I can see the raw ticket sale data and compare it to previous years.  Even on a theater-by-theater basis, we haven't grown that much in population.

 

This is the second movie now where comps came in radically above most of my 2021 comps, with the exception of Dune and The Suicide Squad.  And both of them being sub-5m movies, comping them to 20m+ and 50m movies doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

What I am trying to figure out is if Sacto is coming more on line with what it used to be, signaling that the overall DOM is "catching up" with Sacramento.  Or is it more variance and/or 3pm start times fucking with things?  Are more theaters coming back online?  Did the 3pm start allow for more showings overall, and even if they weren't packed like NWH, it still allowed more ticket purchase opportunities?  Are staffing shortages lessening and/or more small/mid-range theaters coming back online? Or was it just "more folks interested in NWH/Batsy = more theaters giving more showtimes/hiring more staffers = more like previous years"?

 

I don't really know.  I don't think we can know quite yet, given the limited data.  But I'm def gonna be keeping an eye on my comps to see if there is a trend to overall recovery.  If so, that might mean my 2021 data will quickly become obsolete.  Or at least point to lower projections than they actually are.

 

Just something for folks to keep in the back of their heads as various movies come down the pike this year.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Dragoncaine]

Per Deadline, THE BATMAN received a 4.5/5, 88% positive rating, and 73% definite recommend from PostTrak's Thursday night polling. For reference, Captain Marvel received a 4/5 with 80% positive and still received an A Cinemascore. Joker came in at 4/5 with a 60% definite recommend for a B+.

 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Dragoncaine
added link

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Looking at Juju K for the Cinemark

 

Thursday 17th (38)

7pm DUBBED: (11)

730 SUBBED: (27)

 

Friday the 18th: (48)

12 SUBBED: (0)

250 SUBBED (5)

830 SUBBED (32)

540 DUBBED (11)

 

I think it can approach Demon Slayer's 21m OW?

Edited March 4, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[keysersoze123]