The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 3/23/2022 at 11:33 PM, Porthos said:

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	144	19867	20854	987	4.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	547
Total Seats Sold Today	61

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	60.15		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		5847	16.88%		5.29m
LTBC	67.33		107	1466		0/168	26584/28050	5.23%		7712	12.80%		7.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     163/5796  [2.81% sold]
Matinee:    61/1875  [3.25% | 6.18% of all tickets sold]

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	144	19809	20854	1045	5.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	58.91		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		5847	17.87%		5.18m
LTBC	63.53		179	1645		0/173	26553/28198	5.83%		7712	13.55%		7.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     171/5796  [2.95% sold]
Matinee:   59/1875  [3.15% | 5.65% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

This, on the other hand...  Yeah.  "Could be better" seems to be the right phrase if I don't want to overreact/meme-it-up.

[charlie Jatinder]

  

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1445 as at 20:00. Final can be 1550-1600 range perhaps. 

 

Comps will be all over the place I imagine. Provisionally it looks like this taking 1550 as final seats.

 

85% of Jackass Forever - $1.4M

61% of Uncharted - $2.27M

41% of Scream - $1.45M

128% of Free Guy - $2.81M

 

I think $2.25M will be best of them. JF and Scream over-indexed in the area. FG may have under-indexed. 

The Lost City Harkins California and Phoenix 4 Final

 

WED Early Screenings - 489/697 on 6 shows (70.15%)

 

Thursday Previews

California - 717/4185 on 14 shows

Phoenix - 870/2110 on 13 shows

 

Total - 1587/6295 on 27 shows

 

Comps

 

87% of Jackass Forever - $1.48M

63% of Uncharted - $2.34M

134% of Free Guy - $2.95M

 

Let's go $2.35M

[M37]

15 hours ago, Skim Beeble said:

I don't think I'll ever understand the reasoning of these absurdly early start times.

If a film has a demand of ~$25-30 million for the preview shows, doesn’t it make sense to spread that over 8-9 hours of shows (3p-11p/12a & later) rather than try to cram it into a shorter window starting at 6p/7p?

 

Also, in the post-COVID market, demand for PLFs has jumped, and since those screens are essentially fixed (for now), earlier start helps to spread it out. Getting the hardcore must-see immediately fans into a 3pm IMAX show clears space for the later showings, where someone willing to pay the up-charge for the 7pm IMAX gets bumped to the 730 standard instead because it’s full. 

 

It’s calling them “previews” and rolling the gross into Friday that’s a bit absurd - just open the film full on Thursday and be done with it.

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

If a film has a demand of ~$25-30 million for the preview shows, doesn’t it make sense to spread that over 8-9 hours of shows (3p-11p/12a & later) rather than try to cram it into a shorter window starting at 6p/7p?

 

Also, in the post-COVID market, demand for PLFs has jumped, and since those screens are essentially fixed (for now), earlier start helps to spread it out. Getting the hardcore must-see immediately fans into a 3pm IMAX show clears space for the later showings, where someone willing to pay the up-charge for the 7pm IMAX gets bumped to the 730 standard instead because it’s full. 

 

It’s calling them “previews” and rolling the gross into Friday that’s a bit absurd - just open the film full on Thursday and be done with it.

It becomes kind of a funny psychological game though — if you’re going to open full day Th, why not just open like Fri noon? Because you want a higher reported OW for deceptive headlines or course. Why not Wed at 6 to burn off more megafans in PLF? We are heading there, and the 6 hours wed+all day Th+fri will all be “Friday.”

Edited March 25, 2022 by Villain Legion

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-13	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	45	1	4.78%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	46	0	22.12%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	15	0	5.75%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	106	1	7.51%
T-14	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	37	5,419	90	0	1.66%
		Phoenix	6	22	3,740	124	5	3.32%
		Raleigh	8	24	3,273	107	14	3.27%
	Sonic Total		20	83	12,432	321	19	2.58%
T-7	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	266	18	2.35%
		Phoenix	6	48	9,045	282	15	3.12%
		Raleigh	8	35	4,876	236	18	4.84%
	Morbius Total		20	151	25,246	784	51	3.11%

 

Morbius T-7 comps

 - Eternals - .38x (3.59m)

 - SC - .671x (5.9m)

 - Venom 2 - .91x (10.6m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.98x (8.12m)

 

Sonic 2 T-14 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - .94x (3.91m)

 - Shang-Chi - .5x (4.44m)

 - F9 - .56x (4m)

 - TSS - 1.3x (5.33m)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-13 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .48x

 - Time to Die EA - 1.22x

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-12	Sonic (EA)	Jacksonville	5	6	942	49	4	5.20%
		Phoenix	1	1	208	46	0	22.12%
		Raleigh	1	1	261	15	0	5.75%
	Sonic (EA) Total		7	8	1,411	110	4	7.80%
T-13	Sonic	Jacksonville	6	37	5,419	96	6	1.77%
		Phoenix	6	22	3,740	137	13	3.66%
		Raleigh	8	24	3,273	127	20	3.88%
	Sonic Total		20	83	12,432	360	39	2.90%
T-6	Morbius	Jacksonville	6	68	11,325	297	31	2.62%
		Phoenix	6	48	9,045	304	22	3.36%
		Raleigh	8	35	4,876	237	1	4.86%
	Morbius Total		20	151	25,246	838	54	3.32%

 

Morbius T-6 comps

 - Eternals - .38x (3.6m)

 - SC - .645x (5.68m)

 - Venom 2 - .87x (10.13m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.97x (8.08m)

 

Sonic 2 T-13 comps (Thu sales only)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .51x (4.46m)

 - F9 - .56x (4m)

 - TSS - 1.35x (5.53m)

(Still no good comps, just using what I have)

 

Sonic 2 EA T-12 comp

 - Sing 2 EA - .44x

 - Time to Die EA - 1.05x

[BruiseCruise]

[Cap]

17 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Doctor Strange goes on sale Wednesday, April 6th.  3pm shows.  

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Sigh.

 

At least it's not 2pm.

 

I hate this. Excuse me, Marvel. A 3 PM Start time it is not what I scheduled for my trip to New York City. How am I supposed to see it with the super crazy fans in the very very first showing/Not accidentally get spoiled for anything walking into the lobby —  if we haven’t even gotten to the hotel room yet?!

 

😤😂
 

 

[Anthony]

42 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

I'm sorry, but you expect me to believe that after listing all those "Pros" for The Bad Guys, it's gonna open THAT LOW?!?!?

 

After kicking the marketing campaign into high gear for the next 3 weeks (Oscars, Grammys, Kids Choice, trailer in front of Sonic 2), I fully expect a $25M-30M OW, just like The Lost City...

[AJG]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

So another 3 Universal films that’ll be streaming after 17 days…

 

Also those Bad Guys numbers… I see why Turning Red went streaming.

[filmlover]

The Bad Guys looks cheap and DreamWorks' best days are behind them. I can easily see it opening on the low end.

[ScareLol]

The Bad Guys did amazing in Spain last weekend (beating the OW of Encanto and Sing 2) and the WoM is great. It could overperform

Edited March 25, 2022 by ScareLol

[EmpireCity]

Doctor Strange 2 run time is going to blow your mind.  

[BruiseCruise]

2 hours 28 minutes?

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

2 hours 28 minutes?

 

Nope.  4 minutes longer than Sonic 2.  

[YM!]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

So another 3 Universal films that’ll be streaming after 17 days…

 

Also those Bad Guys numbers… I see why Turning Red went streaming.

Tbf TR would’ve still opened to at least Onward or Encanto’s five day numbers due to the Pixar pedigree.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Nope.  4 minutes longer than Sonic 2.  

Should have tons of showings, and lots of room to play. 
 

Honestly wonder if a 200m opening isn’t so crazy anymore.

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Doctor Strange 2 run time is going to blow your mind.  

 

So the runtime is in a whole other universe in terms of Madness?

[Cap]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Doctor Strange 2 run time is going to blow your mind.  

THERE IS A GOD.  @Plain Old Tele, Look, Kevin gets me. A TWO HOUR MOVIE. 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥳🥳🥳🥳

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/18/2022 at 11:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Batman	3,435	86,042	-30.88%	78,740	7,302	2,366	0
Uncharted	3,073	35,555	-10.48%	35,485	70	0	0
Dog	2,790	31,335	-11.92%	31,269	66	0	0
X	2,619	34,402		34,310	92	0	0
JJK: 0	2,228	41,623		37,851	3,772	1,388	0
Spider-Man: NWH	2,189	21,593	-10.47%	21,501	92	0	36
Death on the Nile	1723	15603	-31.29%	15570	33	0	0
Sing 2	1,363	8,927	-21.44%	8,869	58	0	20
The Outfit	1,207	16,122		16,107	15	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	816	6,286	-13.93%	6,263	23	0	0
Jackass Forever	786	5,189	-54.25%	5,175	14	0	0
Umma	739	11,404		11,404	0	0	0
The Godfather	540	3,079		3,079	0	0	0
Stand With Ukraine	501	3,538		3,515	23	0	0
Belfast	464	1,098	-12.16%	1,098	0	0	0
Licorice Pizza	456	922	-18.62%	922	0	0	0
West Side Story	405	787		787	0	0	0
The LEGO Movie 2	357	2,177		2,177	0	0	0
Trolls World Tour	327	1,674		1,674	0	0	0
Scream	312	1,945	-47.60%	1,928	17	0	0
Bachchhan Paandey	307	2,672		2,672	0	0	0
Marry Me	245	1,485	-60.87%	1,485	0	0	0
Cyrano	245	1,470	-70.27%	1,470	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 3/18/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - 41,623 (2,228)

 - House of Gucci (OW) - 38,900 (2,933)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - MHA (no previews) - 25,807 (1,504)

 - Matrix - 38,807 (3,054)

X - 34,402 (2,619)

 - Last Night in Soho - 36,078 (2,701)

 - Blacklight - 33,722 (2,482)

 - Resident Evil - 34,564 (2,450)

The Outfit - 16,122 (1,207)

 - National Champions - 15,457 (1,174)

 - Belle - 16,995 (1,313)

Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - French Dispatch - 11,895 (750)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938)

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Lost City (Fandango EA 3/19) - 222 (222)

Lost City (Girls Night Out 3/22) - 123 (123)

Lost City (Date Night Out 3/23) - 431 (434)

Lost City (OW) - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

RRR - 17,065 (1,071)

 - Antlers - 17,679 (1,504)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

Infinite Storm - 10,576 (867)

 - King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Sonic 2 (EA) - 627 (623)

Sonic 2 - 7,639 (2,272)

 - No Time to Die - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lost City	3,443	81,686		75,224	6,462	0	0
The Batman	3,276	55,479	-35.52%	51,766	3,713	2,871	0
Uncharted	2,898	32,073	-9.79%	32,005	68	0	0
JJK: 0	2,347	29,306	-29.59%	28,626	680	282	0
X	2,618	26,206	-23.82%	26,139	67	0	0
Dog	2,444	24,140	-22.96%	24,086	54	0	0
RRR	1181	20636		18975	1,661	155	118
Infinite Storm	1,481	19,579		19,551	28	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	1,601	14,849	-31.23%	14,775	74	0	27
The Outfit	1,202	9,655	-40.11%	9,650	5	0	0
Sing 2 Sing-Along	1,840	9,649		9,638	11	0	0
Sing 2	873	4,727	-47.05%	4,674	53	0	16
Umma	736	7,735	-32.17%	7,735	0	0	0
Death on the Nile	996	6,977	-55.28%	6,955	22	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	512	3,626	-42.32%	3,620	6	0	0
Jackass Forever	508	2,551	-50.84%	2,546	5	0	0
Licorice Pizza	537	1,027	11.39%	1,027	0	0	0
Belfast	524	932	-15.12%	932	0	0	0
Scream	131	815	-58.10%	809	6	0	0
West Side Story	457	574	-27.06%	574	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley	474	536		536	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	11	281		236	45	28	0

 

US showtime sample for 3/25/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Lost City - 81,868 (3,443)

 - Uncharted- 85,247 (3,358)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318)

RRR - 20,636 (1,181)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 - Belle - 16,995 (1,313)

Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 

T-1 Week

Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 63,866 (2,826)

The Contractor - 3,249 (252)

 - The Card Counter - 3,428 (330)

 - The French Dispatch - 3,716 (342)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Sonic 2 (EA) - 678 (673)

Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142)

Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

Case for Heaven - 1,013 (954)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 - Ghostbusters - 3,137 (799)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 3,764 (573)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

 

T-4 Week Previews

The Bad Guys - 1,288 (486)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

[Dragoncaine]

Doctor Strange 2 running for 2 hours when it's seemingly cramming in so much would be concerning if anyone other than Raimi was directing. Dude put out a top 3 CBM of all time with spectacle and pathos aplenty in 2 hours 8 minutes.