The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

8 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

I'm the only person who cares, but Super Pets has showtimes popped up at Cinemarks, with yet another 2 PM preview start time. @EmpireCity have any word on when tickets for that will drop?

 

Thursday morning.  Easter Sunday goes on sale tomorrow.  

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

How is Crawdads tracking?

 

With Thor looking to underwhelm and likely drop next weekend, the only 2 wide releases are  Crawdads and Paws of Fury. Wondering if it could overperform given the book's popularity and lack of major releases against it. Or it's an adult programmer that opens a bit low and holds on? ...or maybe it just flops

Don't know how it's looking where everyone else is but near me it seems to be doing...pretty good this far out? The 7:00 shows for next Wednesday and evening shows for that Thursday and Friday have actually sold a nice amount of seats so far. Imagine the book's considerable fan base will frontload it a bit, and crossover appeal will likely be determined by the reviews, but it should do high teens at least with a solid chance at $20M+ thanks to the aforementioned fan base + the lack of movies mostly targeting females (especially older ones) this summer.

[filmlover]

Also I saw that news about AMC doing $5 Tuesdays and it looks like it's only until the end of October? Feels like they know a relatively quiet couple of months is upon us after Thor opens until the holidays when two of the biggest movies of the year (Black Panther and Avatar) will be arriving.

[ZackM]

 

weeelp....

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	737	358	0	18	30
Seats Added	80,875	33,239	0	2,790	2,465
Seats Sold	26,190	16,409	10,747	8,949	10,115
7/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,623	320,317	1,235,307	25.93%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	32	207	643	1,195
ATP
$16.54

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Thursday morning.  Easter Sunday goes on sale tomorrow.  

Is Easter Sunday supposed to be a huge comedy smash? I’m surprised tickets are going up that early…

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

weeelp....

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	737	358	0	18	30
Seats Added	80,875	33,239	0	2,790	2,465
Seats Sold	26,190	16,409	10,747	8,949	10,115
7/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,623	320,317	1,235,307	25.93%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	32	207	643	1,195
ATP
$16.54

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

Can i get a Normie rundown if this is good or bad

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Borf the Borf said:

Can i get a Normie rundown if this is good or bad

It's a large bump in isolation, but it failed to make up enough ground against Dr Strange to make a dent in the comps. 

[Borf the Borf]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

It's a large bump in isolation, but it failed to make up enough ground against Dr Strange to make a dent in the comps. 

Ok I see large numbers and i think good but the bottom line is its not enough . . . . . . and can you enlighten me on Alphas like vibe i know each tracking sorta has its own nuances and demos or favorites.  Where is alpha in regards to Superhero/MCU accuracy?   Trying to pick it all up i know MTC is whjat people are waiting on.  

[John Marston]

So below JWD looking likely?

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	8271	34527	23.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 544

 

Comp

0.386x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-3 (19.31M)

1.061x of The Batman T-3 (22.92M)

0.574x of Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (20.66M)

 

Well...you guys really should hope on a Tuesday miracle

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	217	9229	39390	23.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 958

 

Comp

0.392x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-2 (19.58M)

1.057x of The Batman T-2 (22.83M)

0.594x of Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (21.38M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	263	13040	2.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.419x of F9 T-17 (2.97M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	273	13040	2.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.411x of F9 T-16 (2.92M)

4.707x of Space Jam 2 T-16 (61.66M)

[JustLurking]

I like the Space Jam comp.

[Eric Prime]

26 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Is Easter Sunday supposed to be a huge comedy smash? I’m surprised tickets are going up that early…

I'm still confused why this movie called Easter Sunday is coming out in early August? What weirdo Universal exec refused to just sit on this movie and let it come out in March or April?

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Ok I see large numbers and i think good but the bottom line is its not enough . . . . . . and can you enlighten me on Alphas like vibe i know each tracking sorta has its own nuances and demos or favorites.  Where is alpha in regards to Superhero/MCU accuracy?   Trying to pick it all up i know MTC is whjat people are waiting on.  

Alpha tends to be weaker for family films, higher priced, usually more presale heavy. Thor has been over performing there relative to Strange 2, one of its strongest chains.

[ThomasNicole]

The sales are obviously low but Nope doesn´t look too bad tbh, not completely stagnated at least, since it have no reason to be presale heavy i think it´s doing kinda fine

 

The premiere will be very close to release [July 19 iirc] probably because the movie wasn´t nearly close to be finished last month, but still, with good reviews i think final week could actually surprise and act close to US which also was kinda slow on presales until final days.

[Borf the Borf]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Alpha tends to be weaker for family films, higher priced, usually more presale heavy. Thor has been over performing there relative to Strange 2, one of its strongest chains.

Huh but i hear Thor ias a more family friendly MCU film . .maybe a ray of hope for 150m+ 

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/reviews/thor-love-and-thunder-review-release-b2116119.html

Edited July 6, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, Eric the Minion said:

I'm still confused why this movie called Easter Sunday is coming out in early August? What weirdo Universal exec refused to just sit on this movie and let it come out in March or April?

It was actually supposed to come out last April but got pushed to the summer for who knows what reason. Perhaps they saw this summer had no comedies and thought it could compete to add variety to a tentpole-heavy season, but Universal originally had Bros (which arguably has much more going for it) in that spot before moving it to late September. I truly don't know.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

weeelp....

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	737	358	0	18	30
Seats Added	80,875	33,239	0	2,790	2,465
Seats Sold	26,190	16,409	10,747	8,949	10,115
7/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,623	320,317	1,235,307	25.93%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	32	207	643	1,195
ATP
$16.54

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

Based on unweighted comps Thor is at 312,468 at like for like theaters. hmmm

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13423	13695	272	1.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

15

 

T-17 Comps

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	34.96		91	778		0/92	13323/14101	5.52%		4407	6.13%		2.60m
TSS	97.14		12	280		0/81	13672/13952	2.01%		2352	11.56%		3.98m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      48/3963  [1.21% sold]
Matinee:       8/861  [0.93% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13395	13695	300	2.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	n/a*
Total Seats Sold Today	28

* NOTE: The two added showings were at the local drive-in theater which finally checked in.

 

T-16 Comps

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.28		49	827		0/91	13323/14150	5.84%		4407	6.76%		2.70m
TSS	98.36		25	305		0/81	13647/13952	2.19%		2352	12.76%		4.03m
LTBC	40.87		59	734		0/153	25059/25793	2.85%		7712	3.89%		4.74m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     60/3963  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:      8/861  [0.93% | 2.67% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very nice day, albeit boosted by a couple of group sales at two different theaters.  Against my better judgement roped in LTBC, if temporarily.  Will probably bring in NTTD in a day or three.  Not really sure about any other comps, since none are probably terribly useful here.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	23592	33701	10109	30.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

550

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	198.45		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	109.93%		27.43m
NWH	47.13		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	35.87%		23.57m
MoM	65.69		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	47.87%		23.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       1156/4831  [23.93% sold]
Matinee:    551/2566  [21.47% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

It's like people had better things to do today than buy pre-sale tickets or sumthin.'  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	311	28171	39441	11270	28.57%

 

Total Showings Capped Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	60
Total Seats Added Today	5740
Total Seats Sold Today	1161

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	194.31		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	122.55%		26.86m
NWH	48.78		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	39.99%		24.39m
MoM	68.01		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	53.37%		24.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1318/6632  [19.87% sold]
Matinee:    667/3713  [17.96% | 5.92% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

Hard to suss, exactly, what was catch-up from 4th of July and what was a review bump.  As it is, it almost matched MoM today.  If  it matches MoM in sales the rest of the way, that'd point to around 26.5m-ish in previews.  If it does 80% of MoM the rest of the way, locally, that'd be about 25.5m. 

 

Have a better idea tomorrow just how much of this was catching up and how much wasn't (MoM sold 1695 tickets locally on its T-1 ftr).

Edited July 6, 2022 by Porthos