The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Issac Newton]

How much accurate these admits numbers are? 🤔

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

How much accurate these admits numbers are? 🤔

 

 

Not at all. You'd have to knock about 20% off of these figures. 

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah that atp is very out of date.    
 

But if you use current atp as being ~20% higher, you don’t want to knock off 20%, just a sixth (~16.7%)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Yeah that atp is very out of date.    
 

But if you use current atp as being ~20% higher, you don’t want to knock off 20%, just a sixth (~16.7%)

 

[charlie Jatinder]

At 7PM PST, 3219/31269 (125 showings) $31,410 for Super Pets in Harkins. Final can be 3.7-3.9K range, that will be around $1.7-2M.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It seems there's still a fairly large range between estimates. If $1.7-2M comes to pass like Charlie and Katniss believe then we're likely looking at a sub-$20M OW. If it's $2.5M like M37 then maybe it pulls around $24-25M.

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

It seems there's still a fairly large range between estimates. If $1.7-2M comes to pass like Charlie and Katniss believe then we're likely looking at a sub-$20M OW. If it's $2.5M like M37 then maybe it pulls around $24-25M.

I'll probably be wrong/get laughed out of the room for this, but I think Super Pets could have a surprisingly good IM and do like what Paws of Fury did (12.5x). Like yeah I know it's opening a lot higher than that movie and its a DC property, but even with the franchise branding, this seems like a movie that's skewing to really young kids and won't have any Pixar/Minions style older crowd interested in checking the movie out right away and I don't think this is a big priority for DC fans to see right away like they would with a live-action piece.

[BruiseCruise]

83 Verified Audience score

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Superdog said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	292	16256	1.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

3.792x of Snake Eyes T-8 (5.31M)

0.760x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (3.12M)

4.294x of Free Guy T-8 (9.45M)

0.310x of No Time to Die T-8 (1.95M)

0.339x of Dune T-8 (1.73M)

0.874x of Uncharted T-8 (3.23M)

0.368x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-8 (2.21M)

0.152x of Top Gun 2 T-8 (2.93M)

0.137x of Jurassic World 3 T-8 (2.46M)

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	328	16256	2.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

3.952x of Snake Eyes T-7 (5.53M)

0.790x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (3.24M)

3.770x of Free Guy T-7 (8.29M)

0.311x of No Time to Die T-7 (1.96M)

0.355x of Dune T-7 (1.81M)

0.852x of Uncharted T-7 (3.15M)

0.368x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-7 (2.21M)

0.156x of Top Gun 2 T-7 (3.01M)

0.147x of Jurassic World 3 T-7 (2.64M)

[Cooper Legion]

Earlier in the week was thinking 13-15x, with most recent kantmiss data and very early reception indicators now on 10.5-12.5 or so

[ringedmortality]

Cinema is over

[M37]

57 minutes ago, Eric the Superdog said:

I'll probably be wrong/get laughed out of the room for this, but I think Super Pets could have a surprisingly good IM and do like what Paws of Fury did (12.5x). Like yeah I know it's opening a lot higher than that movie and its a DC property, but even with the franchise branding, this seems like a movie that's skewing to really young kids and won't have any Pixar/Minions style older crowd interested in checking the movie out right away and I don't think this is a big priority for DC fans to see right away like they would with a live-action piece.

I’m with you there; nothing in the sales pattern really suggests Super Pets is playing like an IP/fan driven title, but more of a generic/GA animated release, with no real rush to buy tickets or see it, either for opening weekend or for Thursday of that OW. I’m expecting at least a double digit IM, maybe not quite to Paws level, but 11-12x range. Wouldn’t rule out $30M+ yet, depending on where the Thursday number does indeed land. 

 

This isn’t Minions or Sonic IMO, for a handful of reasons but rather:

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

More and more evidence pointing at Minions 2 was just a fluke for post-pandemic animation.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

More and more evidence pointing at Minions 2 was just a fluke for post-pandemic animation.

It was literally inflated by a meme

 

But to be fair..

 

Superpets isn't a great concept IMO. The trailers never caught on. DC brand is broken

 

Lightyear, another weak concept. Weak reviews.

 

Not totally surprising these animated films suffered

[crazymoviekid]

At my 2 local NJ theaters, DC League of Super Pets Looks to Bark Up the 'Alright' Tree.

 

Thursday:

Ticket Solds      Total Seats        Capacity

Theater 1:

33

1106

2.98%

Theater 2:

59

780

7.56%

 

Lightyear Comp: $3.3M (.634x)

Minions: the Rise of Gru Comp: $1.57M (.146x)

 

Friday:

Ticket Solds      Total Seats        Capacity

Theater 1:

42

1580

2.66%

 

Theater 2:

103

980

10.51%

 

Lightyear Comp: $8.68M (.634x)

Minions: the Rise of Gru Comp: $4.43M (.118x)

 

Lightyear Comp: $11.96M (2.13x)

Minions: the Rise of Gru Comp: $6M (.428x)

 

Given its less than expected turn-out, Lightyear is looking to be the best comparison.  We're banking on Pets to have stronger Friday walk-ups, which could be possibly given its more positive WOM and cast.  Minions turned out to be way more front-loaded and played more like a blockbuster.  Nevertheless, this is probably a less than enthusiastic result than what WB would want.  Hopefully, the walk-ups will show up.

[filmlover]

I think WB was thinking that the star power in the voice cast and the DC brand would carry them to big numbers. But as we've seen time and time again, those ingredients don't mean much if the movie itself looks limited in appeal.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 7PM PST, 3219/31269 (125 showings) $31,410 for Super Pets in Harkins. Final can be 3.7-3.9K range, that will be around $1.7-2M.

Super Pets Harkins Final

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
125	31,269	3,514	11.24%	$34,637	$9.86

 

Comps

0.14x of Minions 2 Gross - $1.48M

3.29x of Paws of Fury Gross - $1.66M

 

Minions over-index in West, so that comp is lower than it should be. Normally around $1.7-1.8M seems like it. Best case may be around $1.9M. 

 

FRI sales suggesting somewhere around $5-5.5M. Will need walkups to hit $20M.

Edited July 29, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/22/2022 at 8:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Nope	3,333	105,754		91,661		14,093	5,034	0
Thor 4	3,480	66,410	-43.08%	63,993	399.72	2,417	18	1,332
Minions 2	3,167	57,722	-17.25%	56,144	384.77	1,578	6	1,346
Crawdads Sing	3,092	40,062	-12.31%	39,966	320.36	96	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,694	32,684	-6.45%	32,525	351.17	159	21	0
Paws of Fury	2,929	30,135	-30.24%	30,077	123.78	58	0	0
Elvis	2,593	24,185	-13.19%	24,127	287.17	58	0	0
The Black Phone	1,819	17,876	-22.61%	17,835	232.60	41	0	0
Jurassic World 3	1,865	15,737	-30.11%	15,548	228.83	189	0	132
Mrs. Harris	927	9,925	-17.18%	9,913	146.47	12	0	0
Marcel the Shell	524	7,388	257.95%	7,388	275.15	0	0	0
Lightyear	538	3,709	-53.05%	3,706	177.28	3	0	0
Shamshera	323	2,889		2,889		0	0	0
The Gray Man	278	2,215	-58.81%	2,208		7	0	0
Thank You	266	2,538		2,538		0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Nope - 105,754 (3,333) (14,093 PLF)

 - FB3 - 108,862 (3,417) (13,126)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529) (6,225 IMAX)

 - Suicide Squad - 99,553 (3,252) (4,272 IMAX)

 

T-1 Week

Super-Pets - 41,515 (2,437 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

Vengeance - 9,512 (658 TC)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - The King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Bullet Train 8/2 EA - 670 (608 TC)

Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877 TC)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706 TC)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Super-Pets	3,390	91,510		85,075		6,435	0	0
Nope	2,987	57,299	-36.76%	50,489	419.53	6,810	4,014	0
Minions 2	2,716	42,549	-26.29%	41,798	312.53	751	0	617
Thor 4	2,750	40,862	-38.47%	40,270	339.70	592	0	393
Crawdads Sing	2,688	32,152	-19.74%	32,064	258.56	88	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,376	29,125	-10.89%	28,994	314.25	131	15	0
Elvis	2,177	19,660	-18.71%	19,610	272.24	50	0	0
Vengeance	929	14,169		14,169		0	0	0
Paws of Fury	1,695	12,898	-57.20%	12,874	128.51	24	0	0
The Black Phone	1,315	11,338	-36.57%	11,310	196.29	28	0	0
Jurassic World 3	1,331	9,986	-36.54%	9,890	197.75	96	0	69
Everything Everywhere	1,253	7,797		7,786		11	0	0
Marcel the Shell	688	6,525	-11.68%	6,525	118.34	0	0	0
Mrs. Harris	720	5,658	-42.99%	5,646	141.79	12	0	0
Lightyear	229	1,586	-57.24%	1,586	192.42	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 7/29/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Super-Pets - 91,510 (3,390 TC)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

 - Uncharted - 85,247 (3,358)

Vengeance - 14,169 (929 TC)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083)

 - National Champions - 15,457 (1,174)

 

T-1 Week

Bullet Train 8/2 EA - 847 (771 TC)

Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579 TC)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950 TC)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495 TC)

 - Vengeance - 838 (455)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Dragon Ball Super - 6,877 (2,065 TC)

 - NTTD - 7,191 (1,520)

Beast - 872 (249 TC)

(Waiting for AMC and Regal to post shows before comping)

 

Expansion for Everything Everywhere this week; not sure if that affects anything.  

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/28/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
8/5/2022	Bullet Train	$30,000,000 – $40,000,000	+13%	$95,000,000 – $125,000,000	+3%	Sony Pictures
8/5/2022	Easter Sunday	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	-31%	$27,000,000 – $48,000,000	-31%	Universal Pictures
8/12/2022	Mack & Rita	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000		$8,000,000 – $25,000,000		Gravitas Ventures
8/12/2022	Summering					Bleecker Street Media
8/19/2022	Beast	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	+4%	$31,000,000 – $49,000,000	+4%	Universal Pictures
8/19/2022	Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000	NEW	Sony / Crunchyroll
8/26/2022	The Invitation	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000	NEW	Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Fear					Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Invitation - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Lestranger]

"Bullet Train continues to display encouraging potential in pre-sales, social metrics, and traditional tracking ahead of next week’s release. The last remaining piece of the puzzle will be reviews and how they might impact opening weekend interest." BO Pro

 

Just a random question, is there any place to find tracking info, probably not since it is mostly done internally, but just curious