The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

Easter Sunday Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	24	5392	0.45%

 

Comp

0.155x of Free Guy T-3 (341K)

0.087x of Jackass Forever T-3 (143K)

0.375x of Marry Me T-3 (197K)

0.046x of The Lost City T-3 (151K)

0.124x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent T-3 (104K)

0.088x of The Bob's Burgers Movie T-3 (132K)

 

I don't know if this will be male-skewing (I don't know who Jo Koy is, but I'm assuming guys like him) or female-skewing comedy (it's about family! Like Crazy Rich Asians!), so I went for both. Either way...yeah, why did they put this out in August?

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	660	17673	3.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

4.400x of Snake Eyes T-3 (6.16M)

0.891x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (3.65M)

4.258x of Free Guy T-3 (9.37M)

0.423x of No Time to Die T-3 (2.67M)

0.503x of Dune T-3 (2.57M)

1.178x of Uncharted T-3 4.36M)

0.505x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-3 (3.03M)

0.215x of Top Gun 2 T-3 (4.15M)

0.212x of Jurassic World 3 T-3 (3.82M)

 

Still on a great pace, but we'll see if those potentially bad reviews squander the film.

I think Lost City, Crawdads and Elvis will be good comps. Basically Pitt+Bullock and two Summer films with early showings. I would have suggested Nope but that would have overindexed in Philly.

[Fincher00]

So Bullet Train will do less than 30m now?🤔 reactions were brutal.

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, Fincher00 said:

So Bullet Train will do less than 30m now?🤔 reactions were brutal.

Sandro and I have been sub 30 before reactions 👀  

 

There’s a fair degree of regional variation and relatively scant fri info though, still a wide range for a 90% CI.

[Fincher00]

9 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Sandro and I have been sub 30 before reactions 👀  

 

There’s a fair degree of regional variation and relatively scant fri info though, still a wide range for a 90% CI.

 

I didn't understand what you said. I just saw a tweet of someone saying the AMC seats aren't even sold .

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

I've got faith in Beast as a nice summer ender with a decent 18/55 run, maybe even into the 60M range. There's always a market for these kinds of "man vs. animal" movies, especially if they have a name actor attached. The Shallows did 55M in the heart of summer with a similar premise and starpower, so why not this with zilch competition until Woman King?

 

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Fall is a dumped flop in waiting.

 

I've seen a number of ads for Beast over the past week and it's still more than two weeks away. Universal seems confident in it so far, if nothing else.

I agree, I think Beast could do decently. It’s an easy plot to sell/advertise. Maybe Crawl numbers if it turns out to be as good. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-3	Jax	7	52	31	135	9,681	1.39%
		Phx	6	29	18	182	6,222	2.93%
		Ral	8	33	16	117	4,218	2.77%
	Total		21	114	65	434	20,121	2.16%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	5	10	83	1,201	6.91%
		Phx	1	1	8	52	208	25.00%
		Ral	1	1	16	55	261	21.07%
	Total		7	7	34	190	1,670	11.38%
Dragon Ball	T-17	Jax	6	26	8	145	5,795	2.50%
		Phx	6	22	16	218	4,486	4.86%
		Ral	7	21	15	168	2,812	5.97%
	Total		19	69	39	531	13,093	4.06%
Easter Sunday	T-3	Jax	6	20	5	48	2,835	1.69%
		Phx	6	18	2	11	2,255	0.49%
		Ral	8	22	0	5	2,342	0.21%
	Total		20	60	7	64	7,432	0.86%

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-3 comps

 - Dune - .368x (1.877m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .3x (2.13m)

 - Lost City - 1.59x (3.97m)

 - Morbius - .387x (2.21m)

 - Free Guy - 1.423x (3.13m)

 - Nope - .531x (3.4m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - .995x (1.99m)

 

Growth Rate Check

3-day pace

Bullet Train +26.5%

F9 +28%

Lost City +25.6%

Morbius +25.3%

Free Guy +33.4%

Nope +29%

Crawdads +39%

 

Comp Tracking

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4	T-5	T-6	T-7
Bullet Train
F9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.300	0.297	0.294	0.306	0.281
Morbius	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.387	0.375	0.374	0.381	0.346
Nope	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.531	0.518	0.533	0.550	0.515
Crawdads	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.995	1.076	1.060	1.199	1.168

 

Easter Sunday T-3 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .593x (415k)

 - Vengeance - 2.37x

 - Elvis - missed

 

Dragon Ball T-17 comp

 - JJK:0 - 1.23x (3.54m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-2	Jax	7	57	22	157	10,374	1.51%
		Phx	6	31	20	202	6,391	3.16%
		Ral	8	33	49	166	4,218	3.94%
	Total		21	121	91	525	20,983	2.50%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	5	39	122	1,201	10.16%
		Phx	1	1	17	69	208	33.17%
		Ral	1	1	12	67	261	25.67%
	Total		7	7	68	258	1,670	15.45%
Dragon Ball	T-16	Jax	6	26	2	147	5,795	2.54%
		Phx	6	22	23	241	4,486	5.37%
		Ral	7	21	5	173	2,812	6.15%
	Total		19	69	30	561	13,093	4.28%
Easter Sunday	T-2	Jax	6	21	15	63	2,895	2.18%
		Phx	6	20	7	18	2,468	0.73%
		Ral	8	22	4	9	2,342	0.38%
	Total		20	63	26	90	7,705	1.17%

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-2 comps

 - Dune - .348x (1.777m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .303x (2.15m)

 - Lost City - 1.504x (3.76m)

 - Morbius - .37x (2.11m)

 - Free Guy - 1.496x (3.29m)

 - Nope - .509x (3.256m)

 - Crawdads (Thu) - .924x (1.85m)

 

Growth Rate Check

1-day

Bullet Train +17.3%

Dune +21.77%

F9 +16.3%

Lost City +21.78%

Morbius +20.94%

Free Guy +13.11%

Nope +20.83%

Crawdads +23.24%

 

3-day pace

Bullet Train +36.19%

F9 +34.1%

Lost City +38.97%

Morbius +36.88%

Free Guy +32.19%

Nope +39.15%

Crawdads +44.37%

 

 

Comp Tracking

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4	T-5	T-6	T-7
Bullet Train
F9	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.303	0.300	0.297	0.294	0.306	0.281
Morbius	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.370	0.387	0.375	0.374	0.381	0.346
Nope	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.509	0.531	0.518	0.533	0.550	0.515
Crawdads	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.924	0.995	1.076	1.060	1.199	1.168

 

Easter Sunday T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - .657x (460k)

 - Vengeance - 1.875x

 - Elvis - .121x (388k)

 

Dragon Ball T-16 comp

 - JJK:0 - 1.18x (3.4m)

[M37]

8 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

Definitely not much in Fall's favor, but I think there's some mild potential with Beast. Something about Idris Elba vs. a lion seems too irresistible, but maybe that's just my own weird taste talking.

I agree, eyeing low teens for Beast, but also doubt it will generate much presales before the last couple of days 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Bullet Train (EA)	PLF	5	94	94	1,268	7.41%	$14.94	$1,404.50
	Total		5	94	94	1,268	7.41%	$14.94	$1,404.50
T-3	Bullet Train	PLF	18	54	54	4,755	1.14%	$15.10	$815.23
		Standard	23	64	64	2,666	2.40%	$10.64	$681.00
	Total		41	118	118	7,421	1.59%	$12.68	$1,496.23
T-3	Easter Sunday	Standard	13	47	47	1,556	3.02%	$13.12	$616.47
	Total		13	47	47	1,556	3.02%	$13.12	$616.47

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Bullet Train	N	25	97	97	4,891	1.98%	$13.35	$1,294.90
		Y	16	21	21	2,530	0.83%	$9.59	$201.33
	Total		41	118	118	7,421	1.59%	$12.68	$1,496.23

 

Bullet Train T-3 comps

 - Crawdads - .67x (1.34m)

 - Morbius - .125x (714k)

 - Nope - .311x (1.99m)

 

Easter Sunday T-3 comps

 - Massive Talent - 2.35x (1.96m)

 - Crawdads - .267x (534k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .303x (455k)

 

Both movies are much lower than expected.  Need a really good final week.

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Bullet Train (EA)	PLF	5	45	139	1,268	10.96%	$14.97	$2,080.37
	Bullet Train (EA) Total		5	45	139	1,268	10.96%	$14.97	$2,080.37
T-2	Bullet Train	PLF	29	15	69	6,627	1.04%	$14.87	$1,026.32
		Standard	36	38	102	4,293	2.38%	$11.34	$1,156.38
	Bullet Train Total		65	53	171	10,920	1.57%	$12.76	$2,182.70
T-2	Easter Sunday	Standard	13	3	50	1,556	3.21%	$13.13	$656.52
	Easter Sunday Total		13	3	50	1,556	3.21%	$13.13	$656.52

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Bullet Train	N	45	42	139	7,697	1.81%	$13.47	$1,872.04
		Y	20	11	32	3,223	0.99%	$9.71	$310.66
	Bullet Train Total		65	53	171	10,920	1.57%	$12.76	$2,182.70

 

This is just depressing at this point.

 

Bullet Train T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - .692x (1.38m)

 - Morbius - .15x (857k)

 - Nope - .319x (2.042m)

 - Northman - 1.305x (1.76m)

 

Easter Sunday T-2 comps

 - Massive Talent - 1.786x (1.49m)

 - Crawdads - .202x (405k)

 - Bob's Burgers - .233x (349k)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The reviews for Bullet Train are alright, but nowhere near enough to entice audiences in a more picky and selective world. A world where mediocre reviews basically get you sent to "wait for streaming^{if you haven't faded away completely from consciousness by then}" hell. I wouldn't be surprised to see it open below $30M at this point.

[filmlover]

You knew the studio had no faith in Easter Sunday when they suddenly shifted it from its original timely early April release to August. Even if the movie wasn't going to be ready in time, they would've at least sat on it until next spring for maximum profits.

[p a p i]

38 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The reviews for Bullet Train are alright, but nowhere near enough to entice audiences in a more picky and selective world. A world where mediocre reviews basically get you sent to "wait for streaming^{if you haven't faded away completely from consciousness by then}" hell. I wouldn't be surprised to see it open below $30M at this point.

Uncharted didn't need good reviews. Nor Where The Crawdads Sing

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, p a p i said:

Uncharted didn't need good reviews. Nor Where The Crawdads Sing

The power of Sony Law! @CJohn

 

Although Morbius would like to have a word lol.

[CJohn]

34 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The power of Sony Law! @CJohn

 

Although Morbius would like to have a word lol.

Morbius was just too toxic. 30-40% would have been enough for a fine run.

[JustLurking]

Audiences still liked Uncharted, Morbius beyond having far worse reviews was trashed by critics and audiences alike.

[M37]

On 8/1/2022 at 12:36 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

40+ for Bullet Train?

 

The Tuesday early access showings here are more than Lost City but not as much as Elvis. that said, I doubt Elvis is a good comp since that was frontloaded and more fan driven. Bullet Train shouldn't be and also skews younger. I also don't remember Elvis having early showings at the Cinemark

 

EARLY ACCESS TUESDAY:

 

AMC DOLBY: (55)

CINEMARK XD: (10)

At this point, I’m dubious it makes $40M for the full first week, off a mid (maybe high) $20s OW …

Edited August 2, 2022 by M37

[Goldenhour36]

Bullet Train Early Access (Final Tracking Day) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Tuesday Showings: 

7:00 PM (Dolby Cinema): 243 Tickets sold, 86.48% of seats (281) are sold (37 New Tickets, 13.02% Increase) 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

7:00 PM (GTX): 55 Tickets sold, 20.99% of seats (281) are sold (34 New Tickets, 161.90% Increase) 

 

I did miss the whole Tracking Day 4 for Bullet Train and Easter Sunday since I was busy but did get a chance to count the final totals for Early Access with the following two theaters showing it.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The EA of Bullet Train had like 30 total people. The audience reacted to the movie and seemed to enjoy. We'll see how it does this weekend. 

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	660	17673	3.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

4.400x of Snake Eyes T-3 (6.16M)

0.891x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (3.65M)

4.258x of Free Guy T-3 (9.37M)

0.423x of No Time to Die T-3 (2.67M)

0.503x of Dune T-3 (2.57M)

1.178x of Uncharted T-3 4.36M)

0.505x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-3 (3.03M)

0.215x of Top Gun 2 T-3 (4.15M)

0.212x of Jurassic World 3 T-3 (3.82M)

 

Still on a great pace, but we'll see if those potentially bad reviews squander the film.

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	964	17673	5.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 304

 

Comp

4.749x of Snake Eyes T-2 (6.65M)

1.073x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (4.4M)

4.323x of Free Guy T-2 (9.51M)

0.516x of No Time to Die T-2 (3.25M)

0.635x of Dune T-2 (3.24M)

1.395x of Uncharted T-2 (5.16M)

1.426x of The Lost City T-2 (4.63M)

0.651x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 (3.91M)

0.268x of Top Gun 2 T-2 (5.16M)

0.275x of Jurassic World 3 T-2 (4.96M)

1.499x of Elvis T-2 (5.25M)

 

Added in some of the comps @charlie Jatinder suggested. I had a commitment that didn't allow me to track all the Early Access shows at 7 PM exactly, but I still tracked these showtimes a couple hours in advance. So while not perfect, at least part of their growths were still included here. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Around 1.2 EA for BT.

Edited August 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder