The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/25/2022 at 8:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
No Way Home	T-7	Jax	4	16	2	15	2,451	0.61%
		Phx	3	9	9	29	1,518	1.91%
		Ral	5	13	4	50	1,993	2.51%
	Total		12	38	15	94	5,962	1.58%
Rogue One (Fri)	T-1	Jax	2	7	5	72	2,912	2.47%
		Phx	1	3	8	95	1,230	7.72%
	Total		3	10	13	167	4,142	4.03%

 

NWH T-7 comps

 - Shang-Chi - .08x (708k)

 - Eternals - .045x (430k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Honk for Jesus	T-6	Jax	5	12	0	0	1,334	0.00%
		Phx	5	11	1	1	1,701	0.06%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,636	0.00%
	Total		17	38	1	1	4,671	0.02%
No Way Home	T-6	Jax	5	16	4	19	2,451	0.78%
		Phx	4	14	0	29	2,345	1.24%
		Ral	5	13	4	54	1,993	2.71%
	Total		14	43	8	102	6,789	1.50%
Rogue One (Fri)	T-0	Jax	2	7	22	94	2,912	3.23%
		Phx	1	3	10	105	1,230	8.54%
	Total		3	10	32	199	4,142	4.80%

 

NWH T-6 comps

 - Shang-Chi - .08x (691k)

 - Eternals - .046x (439k)

[M37]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't rule out a $20M+ opening for Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile which will be the first family film since Super-Pets (and the last until Strange World Thanksgiving weekend).

Fair, it could pull a Bad Guys … but despite being live action, the trailer came across very juvenile/babyish, aimed very much at younger kids (which may not matter if parents are desperate).  Though because there aren’t any other family releases behind it, probably not as much of an OW rush, but a lot of smaller drops along the way 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fair, it could pull a Bad Guys … but despite being live action, the trailer came across very juvenile/babyish, aimed very much at younger kids (which may not matter if parents are desperate).  Though because there aren’t any other family releases behind it, probably not as much of an OW rush, but a lot of smaller drops along the way 

FWIW it's also a musical with songs written by Pasek and Paul, so we probably shouldn't rule out a breakout run if those two have put together yet another dynamite movie soundtrack that catches on.

[AJG]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW it's also a musical with songs written by Pasek and Paul, so we probably shouldn't rule out a breakout run if those two have put together yet another dynamite movie soundtrack that catches on.

 

It didn't help Evan Hansen much.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It didn't help Evan Hansen much.

To be fair, that was a Broadway adaptation, which have always been hit-and-miss (with the misses being more notable than the hits). Original movie musicals like La La Land and The Greatest Showman (both also featuring songs by those two) have been much more successful in recent years.

[M37]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW it's also a musical with songs written by Pasek and Paul, so we probably shouldn't rule out a breakout run if those two have put together yet another dynamite movie soundtrack that catches on.

Breakout run and breakout OW are two different outcomes though - we can still see a lot of solid runs/totals without any $15-$20M+ OW given weakness in calendar. I just think the more casual GA is going to mostly catch-up on summer leftovers & rereleases and then check-out for a while, focus on football and streaming/TV for the next 6-7 weeks, leaving a smaller pool of frequent moviegoers/club members to keep box office afloat
 

Until Halloween & Black Adam (maybe Avatar?) bring them back, like Venom did last October. Keep in mind Venom had an unusually slow start to it’s advance sales, I would argue because in part a whole lot of the GA weren’t even paying attention to cinemas by the time tickets went on sale mid-September. It wasn’t until the Sunday before release that it started to take off

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

It’s just difficult for me to look at the past 18 months of largely mediocre results for non-IP adult-focused titles - especially last September’s trainwreck - and be hopeful for a breakout over next month.
 

Barbarian looks forgettable, think Woman King struggles to connect with GA especially for OW, Darling I wont’t be surprised if it gets mid to high teens given cast and ubiquitous advertising, and Avatar … we’ll see. Do think both WK and DWD can have good WOM and leggy runs, just not great/breakout OWs. Overall, not expecting anything to hit $20M OW (if not $15M) until Halloween, with the possible exception of a potential breakout from Smile, given horror track record for September 

 

MoviePass returns Sept 3...

 

Not saying I believe the company will last long, but it did have a big effect on film opens and legs when it existed last time...

[filmlover]

I disagree with the notion that September/October are without interesting releases (there's plenty that I want to see, actually). If anything this year has taught us that the mid-range movie is definitely not dead. Whether any of them actually catch on with audiences remains to be seen.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

MoviePass returns Sept 3...

 

Not saying I believe the company will last long, but it did have a big effect on film opens and legs when it existed last time...

 

Let's see which theaters actually accept MoviePass this go around first.

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

.Barbarian looks forgettable

The word on the street is that Barbarian is insane. Could have the run Malignant would've had without day-and-date.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The doom and gloom of Sept is becoming tiresome

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

The word on the street is that Barbarian is insane. Could have the run Malignant would've had without day-and-date.

Disney's pretty much dumping it without fanfare though. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if it makes a similar total to Malignant even without a day-and-date component.

[motionpic05]

36 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

The word on the street is that Barbarian is insane. Could have the run Malignant would've had without day-and-date.

I've heard it's shocking...

[Tinalera]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Fucking hell, life got in the way today and I wasn't able to get to the numbers before previews started. No T-0 numbers from the Twin Cities tonight, sorry y'all

 

What are y'all tracking next besides the re-releases? Is Honk for Jesus the only wide release coming out next weekend? Yikes

 

I can't speak for others but Im probably not tracking anything for another couple of weeks at least if not more. Just got stuff going on in the real world.

 

No worries about missing a day, we all do these things when we can, and life does happen to all of us.

[Tinalera]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Let's see which theaters actually accept MoviePass this go around first.

 

Yea, with the current financial stuff going on right now, it will be interesting to see which ones do. And even if Moviepass is accepted, how long do they stick around this time, and how many people will sign up for it after the last experience?

[poweranimals]

9 hours ago, Eric the Genie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/25/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.	$1,500,000 – $3,500,000		$3,500,000 – $8,500,000		Focus Features
9/2/2022	Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)	$1,500,000 – $3,000,000				Universal Pictures
9/2/2022	Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-Issue)					Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios
9/9/2022	Barbarian	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$22,000,000 – $37,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/9/2022	Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva					Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022	God’s Country					IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases					UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run					Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins					Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $50,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

Why are they ignoring NWH re-release? 

Edited August 26, 2022 by poweranimals

[misterpepp]

Barbarian tickets available this coming Wednesday, 8/31. Or at least, so I'm told (If my Discord pal is reading this, I promise I trust you!).

Edited August 27, 2022 by datpepper

[Goldenhour36]

Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. (Tracking Day 1) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

5:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

8:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 5 Tickets sold, 4.55% of seats (110) are sold 

 

Friday Showings: 

1:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

4:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

7:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 4 Tickets sold, 3.64% of seats (110) are sold 

10:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (110) are sold 

 

Total: 9 Tickets sold, 1.36% of seats (660) are sold 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) are sold (x0.191) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 2.08% of seats (674) are sold (x0.643) 

Mack and Rita (Tracking Day 1): 6 Tickets sold, 1.11% of seats (539) are sold (x1.500) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

No Showings Yet 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

No Showings Yet  

 

SUM Total: 

9 Tickets sold, 1.36% of seats (660) are sold 

Comps 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) are sold (x0.191) ($125,759) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 0.56% of seats (2498) are sold (x0.643) ($1,307,247) 

Mack and Rita (Tracking Day 1): 6 Tickets sold, 1.11% of seats (539) are sold (x1.500) ($596,536) 

 

 

Edited August 27, 2022 by Goldenhour36

[Goldenhour36]

Gigi and Nate (Tracking Day 1) 

 

AMC DINE-IN Disney Springs 24 

 

Thursday Showings: 

3:30 PM (Laser at AMC): 5 Tickets sold, 5.62% of seats (89) are sold 

6:30 PM (Laser at AMC): 2 Tickets sold, 2.25% of seats (89) are sold 

9:30 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (89) are sold 

 

Friday Showings: 

12:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 1 Tickets sold, 1.12% of seats (89) are sold 

3:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (89) are sold 

6:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 2 Tickets sold, 2.25% of seats (89) are sold 

9:00 PM (Laser at AMC): 0 Tickets sold, 0% of seats (89) are sold 

 

Total: 10 Tickets sold, 1.61% of seats (623) are sold 

Comps 

DC League of Super-Pets (Tracking Day 1): 69 Tickets sold, 1.85% of seats (3731) are sold (x0.145) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) are sold (x0.213) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 2.08% of seats (674) are sold (x0.714) 

 

Island Cinemas (St.Simon) 

No Showings Yet 

 

Valdosta Cinemas 

No Showings Yet 

 

SUM Total:  

10 Tickets sold, 1.61% of seats (623) are sold 

Comps 

DC League of Super-Pets (Tracking Day 1): 69 Tickets sold, 1.19% of seats (5805) are sold (x0.145)($1,352,506) 

Vengeance (Tracking Day 1): 47 Tickets sold, 8.80% of seats (534) are sold (x0.213) ($140,244) 

Easter Sunday (Tracking Day 1): 14 Tickets sold, 2.08% of seats (674) are sold (x0.714) ($1,451,594) 

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

I’m seeing Barbarian on Monday