The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

42 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

40M from Wed-Sunday for WF would be bad no?

They’re just taking a guess. The article is mostly about the openers.

[Pinacolada]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline Thanksgiving:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-wakanda-forever-strange-world-disney-bob-iger-thanksgiving-1235179433/
 

Strange World: $30M+ 5-day and will be on Disney+ by Christmas

Bones and All: $7-9M 5-day

Glass Onion: $6-8M 5-day

Devotion: $7-8M

The Fabelmans: no number

It blows my mind that Devotion is gonna do that poorly. The only war movie that I can think of in like the last decade that didn't do well was Midway, and that wasn't even a war movie really. It was a dumb Roland Emmerich jerkoff movie. 

But yeah, how is this a hard sell? Based on a real war so it has the "America, fuck yeah" angle to it that appeals to more conservative audiences, well reviewed, another fighter pilot movie after Top Gun Maverick, and literally stars one of the breakouts from that movie. "Hey you liked Hangman from Top Gun 2? Come watch him do the same shit again but this time it's about a real war"

 

I dont get it

 

[filmlover]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

It blows my mind that Devotion is gonna do that poorly. The only war movie that I can think of in like the last decade that didn't do well was Midway, and that wasn't even a war movie really. It was a dumb Roland Emmerich jerkoff movie. 

But yeah, how is this a hard sell? Based on a real war so it has the "America, fuck yeah" angle to it that appeals to more conservative audiences, well reviewed, another fighter pilot movie after Top Gun Maverick, and literally stars one of the breakouts from that movie. "Hey you liked Hangman from Top Gun 2? Come watch him do the same shit again but this time it's about a real war"

 

I dont get it

 

I’m not surprised Devotion is doomed. No buzz and historical war dramas have always struggled at the box office unless they were Oscar contenders and/or had big stars in them (ala Fury), and this has neither. Perhaps they should’ve saved it for late spring after Ant-Man/Creed raise Majors’ profile, though it might not have made much of a difference anyway.

[M37]

48 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

40M from Wed-Sunday for WF would be bad no?

It would be terrible, and it’s honestly laughable that Deadline wrote that - should easily clear $40M for just the 3-day

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

54 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

40M from Wed-Sunday for WF would be bad no?

 

It'll be closer to $60M than $40M.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Wut

just having a movie dozen years ago does not build fanbase. Its not as if we were seeing huge amount of content that builds and sustains them across media. I am sure JC/Avatar movie have many fans but its still negligible compared to fan driven movies like MCU, DC or Potter etc. Even Potter fan base is on the decline I would say as there is not that much content anymore. Only crappy FB movies which also I think has ended with JKR controversy. 

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

It blows my mind that Devotion is gonna do that poorly. The only war movie that I can think of in like the last decade that didn't do well was Midway, and that wasn't even a war movie really. It was a dumb Roland Emmerich jerkoff movie. 

But yeah, how is this a hard sell? Based on a real war so it has the "America, fuck yeah" angle to it that appeals to more conservative audiences, well reviewed, another fighter pilot movie after Top Gun Maverick, and literally stars one of the breakouts from that movie. "Hey you liked Hangman from Top Gun 2? Come watch him do the same shit again but this time it's about a real war"

 

I dont get it

 

 

It looks like Top Gun 3's straight to DVD/streaming version without Tom Cruise...and everyone already saw Top Gun 2 this summer, just a few months ago.

 

This was DOA.  Maybe next Thanksgiving, with some time and distance from the Cruise missile, and it could have done okay as a "I missed this" movie, but not now...

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

It blows my mind that Devotion is gonna do that poorly. The only war movie that I can think of in like the last decade that didn't do well was Midway, and that wasn't even a war movie really. It was a dumb Roland Emmerich jerkoff movie. 

But yeah, how is this a hard sell? Based on a real war so it has the "America, fuck yeah" angle to it that appeals to more conservative audiences, well reviewed, another fighter pilot movie after Top Gun Maverick, and literally stars one of the breakouts from that movie. "Hey you liked Hangman from Top Gun 2? Come watch him do the same shit again but this time it's about a real war"

It's gonna do better than that. 

[Fanboy]

49 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Since we all know A2 will be a WOM movie, I think it's clear that The Batman is the correct comp.

 

 

200M Sunday incoming. 😈

[ringedmortality]

Shame Fabelmans isn’t hitting double digits.

[lorddemaxus]

So I see not a single Regal around me is showing The Fabelmans. Is it the same across the country?

[Eric Prime]

Devotion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	97	5868	1.65%

 

Comp

1.590x of The Last Duel T-1 (556K)

0.265x of House of Gucci T-1 (448K)

0.361x of The King's Man T-1 (288K)

1.276x of The 355 T-1 (447K)

0.396x of Moonfall T-1 (277K)

0.669x of Ambulance T-1 (468K)

0.234x of The Northman T-1 (316K)

0.061x of Bullet Train T-1 (282K)

[WrathOfHan]

A 9-10M 5 day for Bones and All would be impressive since the movie basically disappeared after the fall festivals (even the lower end of tracking isn't terrible). 30M+ domestically would be in reach on the higher end.

 

(Sidenote: it's gonna do very well on next year's horror countdown  )

Edited November 22, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

So I see not a single Regal around me is showing The Fabelmans. Is it the same across the country?

It's playing at a number of Regals near me.

[Eric Prime]

Strange World Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	163	5423	3.01%

 

Comp

0.606x of The Boss Baby 2 T-1 (794K)

0.521x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (1.41M)

1.552x of The Addams Family 2 T-1 (854K)

5.621x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-1 (1.35M)

0.527x of Encanto T-1 (791K)

1.072x of The Bad Guys T-1 (1.23M)

0.148x of Lightyear T-1 (771K)

2.362x of Paws of Fury T-1 (1.19M)

0.570x of DC League of Super Pets T-1 (1.25M)

2.860x of Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-1 (1.64M)

 

@YM! Here you go.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

So I see not a single Regal around me is showing The Fabelmans. Is it the same across the country?

We are getting it at one Regal and one AMC here-there are 6 Regals vs 2 AMCs within 25 miles or so.

[Eric Prime]

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	144	897	25560	3.51%

 

Comp

2.768x of No Time to Die's First Day of Sales (17.44M)

2.034x of Dune's First Day of Sales (10.37M)

3.385x of Fantastic Beasts 3's First Day of Sales (20.31M)

1.759x of Top Gun 2's First Day of Sales (33.87M)

1.677x of Jurassic World 3's First Day of Sales (30.18M)

0.675x of Jurassic World 3 T-23 (12.15M)

 

@Blankments @IronJimbo Here you go!

[Eric Prime]

On 11/20/2022 at 11:13 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	76	11535	0.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.174x of Sing 2 T-31 (1.69M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-30 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	96	11535	0.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

0.182x of Sing 2 T-30 (1.77M)

[Eric Prime]

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

2.034x of Dune's First Day of Sales (10.37M)

How many Dune tix did you book?