The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Updated Chart through T-4

 

First, the good news: Sunday sales were much improved over Fri & Sat across all markets, and as a result both the overall and TGM averages held at around $18M. But I'm glad the consensus on the board has generally lowered expectations, because that's about the end of the good news (and so I'm going to be a bit more frank in my comments this time)

 

For the pre-release weekend, sales grew by less than 23% across all market samples (except one). While not on CBM level of low growth, for which there is a much higher initial base of sales and so naturally lower % growth over time, it suggests a very muted ramp up over the last few days, shallowing even the already average pace of the TGM comp and way below walk-up heavy JWD, trending between TGM and Batman (hey, that sounds familiar...). I've added more Batman figures to the chart, with the average there around $15.5M (with caveats of unweighted ATP and some comps include the EA shows, and that Batman was IMO a little ... weird)

 

Based on data in hand, I would project final Thursday ticket sales come in slightly above the TGM Thursday Only figures, albeit with a higher ATP, but putting the preview value in more mid to high teens than high teens to $20M+ range. With that said, reviews come out tomorrow, and that could result in a decent bump that pushes it back to the higher range

 

And if all of that isn't enough cold water for you, one more question to pose: if it looks as though Avatwo is going to be a pre-sale heavy for Thursday, with fewer walk-up sales, then perhaps those higher weekend tallies - which everyone (including me!) has said suggest a higher IM - may not be quite as robust as they seem

Preview Average Chart through T-3:

(Note: have removed all JWD data points as it no longer appears to be a good comp, and chart was getting cluttered anyway)

 

Without JWD, seems like $17M is the target, within a range of [15]16 - 18[19] - set expectations accordingly

 

However, one potential, optimistic scenario is that expansion of 2D showings will facilitate more late sales/walk-ups than the previous showing allotment was generating. I ran the numbers for the Tampa/St Pete market each of the last two days, but they really didn't have much added value in isolation, so didn't bother posting, but one trend that I do want to highlight

 

Here is the growth in tickets sold by format (shown on a log scale for ... reasons)

 

(the PLF 3D line is skewed a bit here due one location not putting IMAX shows on sale until ~10 days ago and playing catching up)

 

Can see that while the PLF sales have have lower growth rates which drag down the average, the 3D and especially 2D shows are adding tickets a much higher rate. It's almost as if we have to treat Avatwo as TWO films in one: the high demand and early purchased PLF, and the more walk-up/GA friendly 3D and 2D showings. That we're (likely) getting very good reviews and these added shows today could help push the Thursday sales up higher than the overall trajectory the last few days suggest

[M37]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	PLF	54	214	2,624	8,427	31.14%	$15.76	$41,345.27
		Standard	46	283	978	6,183	15.82%	$12.21	$11,943.52
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	81	462	2,863	12,771	22.42%	$16.17	$46,289.79
		Standard	61	273	903	8,052	11.21%	$12.08	$10,905.42
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	81	583	3,032	12,777	23.73%	$15.28	$46,322.01
		Standard	60	203	797	7,941	10.04%	$11.08	$8,831.36
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	81	293	1,785	12,771	13.98%	$14.93	$26,658.32
		Standard	59	150	551	7,838	7.03%	$9.96	$5,487.10
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	N	72	406	2,805	10,595	26.47%	$15.55	$43,622.47
		Y	28	91	797	4,015	19.85%	$12.13	$9,666.32
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	64	569	2,880	9,902	29.09%	$16.18	$46,611.59
		Y	78	166	886	10,921	8.11%	$11.95	$10,583.62
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	64	417	1,903	10,020	18.99%	$16.98	$32,312.49
		Y	77	369	1,926	10,698	18.00%	$11.86	$22,840.88
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	62	143	829	9,688	8.56%	$17.66	$14,643.79
		Y	78	300	1,507	10,921	13.80%	$11.61	$17,501.63
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

*All new sales since Saturday morning

 

Avatar previews T-3 comps

 - NWH - .21x (10.52m)

 - Batman - .78x (13.73m)

 - Thor 4 - .476x (13.8m)

 - DS2 - .286x (10.28m)

 - BP2 - .529x (14.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.178x (17.31m)

 - FB3 - 3.245x (19.47m)

 - JW3 - .702x (12.64m)

 

Avatar Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .264x (19.01m)

 - DS2 - .385x (21.05m)

 - Batman - .81x (28.37m)

 - TG2 - 1.059x (34.63m)

 - JW3 - .694x (28.85m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

Katniss, not knowing how your data collection looks on the back end, but is it possible to separate out standard 3D from the PLF umbrella? Going forward, but also retroactively (if it’s not aggregated by default). Curious how those sales patterns by format look not just for Thursday, but across the weekend. If it’s complicated/too much work then no big deal 

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Preview Average Chart through T-3:

(Note: have removed all JWD data points as it no longer appears to be a good comp, and chart was getting cluttered anyway)

 

Without JWD, seems like $17M is the target, within a range of [15]16 - 18[19] - set expectations accordingly

 

However, one potential, optimistic scenario is that expansion of 2D showings will facilitate more late sales/walk-ups than the previous showing allotment was generating. I ran the numbers for the Tampa/St Pete market each of the last two days, but they really didn't have much added value in isolation, so didn't bother posting, but one trend that I do want to highlight

 

Here is the growth in tickets sold by format (shown on a log scale for ... reasons)

 

(the PLF 3D line is skewed a bit here due one location not putting IMAX shows on sale until ~10 days ago and playing catching up)

 

Can see that while the PLF sales have have lower growth rates which drag down the average, the 3D and especially 2D shows are adding tickets a much higher rate. It's almost as if we have to treat Avatwo as TWO films in one: the high demand and early purchased PLF, and the more walk-up/GA friendly 3D and 2D showings. That we're (likely) getting very good reviews and these added shows today could help push the Thursday sales up higher than the overall trajectory the last few days suggest

Finally some good news, seems like US is still reluctant about embracing 3D again. 

 

Pushing it so hard was definitely a choice but nice they're providing more options now close to release.

[Gkalaitza]

A bunch of people that went online to book a PLF 3D seat in the last few days and saw that the good seats are gone will probably wait for later in the Holidays of course which will be adding legs to the that Avatar film (if we treat it like 2 films like you said) along with the great WOM for that format. But i wonder if good PLF 3D seats getting filled up also pushed some people to switch to other formats for the OW and maybe that will be even more apparent in these last couple of days. People that heard that they should see it in PLF 3D and said "ok lets look at whats available" but were overall ambivalent far from "Imax 3d or bust" or just really wanted to see the film OW above all else. So if they went to book tickets last week they would  have chosen PLF 3D but now 2d is the obvious choice. That could also contribute to that opposite trend in growth

Edited December 13, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Nero]

1 hour ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

You must be new here.

Definitely not lol. I know you change your name whenever new movie comes up. What I was curious about was if you changed the name to avatar the last Airbender because Avatar movie is coming or something related with Airbender?

[Eric S'ennui]

45 minutes ago, Nero said:

Definitely not lol. I know you change your name whenever new movie comes up. What I was curious about was if you changed the name to avatar the last Airbender because Avatar movie is coming or something related with Airbender?

Yeah I changed it because of The Way of Water coming out this week. Wanted to do Quaritch, because Stephen Lang's arms are 😍, but I thought being an ass and choosing the other Avatar was funnier lol

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	PLF	54	214	2,624	8,427	31.14%	$15.76	$41,345.27
		Standard	46	283	978	6,183	15.82%	$12.21	$11,943.52
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	PLF	81	462	2,863	12,771	22.42%	$16.17	$46,289.79
		Standard	61	273	903	8,052	11.21%	$12.08	$10,905.42
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	PLF	81	583	3,032	12,777	23.73%	$15.28	$46,322.01
		Standard	60	203	797	7,941	10.04%	$11.08	$8,831.36
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	PLF	81	293	1,785	12,771	13.98%	$14.93	$26,658.32
		Standard	59	150	551	7,838	7.03%	$9.96	$5,487.10
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Avatar 2	N	72	406	2,805	10,595	26.47%	$15.55	$43,622.47
		Y	28	91	797	4,015	19.85%	$12.13	$9,666.32
	Total		100	497	3,602	14,610	24.65%	$14.79	$53,288.79
T-4	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	64	569	2,880	9,902	29.09%	$16.18	$46,611.59
		Y	78	166	886	10,921	8.11%	$11.95	$10,583.62
	Total		142	735	3,766	20,823	18.09%	$15.19	$57,195.21
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	64	417	1,903	10,020	18.99%	$16.98	$32,312.49
		Y	77	369	1,926	10,698	18.00%	$11.86	$22,840.88
	Total		141	786	3,829	20,718	18.48%	$14.40	$55,153.37
T-6	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	62	143	829	9,688	8.56%	$17.66	$14,643.79
		Y	78	300	1,507	10,921	13.80%	$11.61	$17,501.63
	Total		140	443	2,336	20,609	11.33%	$13.76	$32,145.42

*All new sales since Saturday morning

 

Avatar previews T-3 comps

 - NWH - .21x (10.52m)

 - Batman - .78x (13.73m)

 - Thor 4 - .476x (13.8m)

 - DS2 - .286x (10.28m)

 - BP2 - .529x (14.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.178x (17.31m)

 - FB3 - 3.245x (19.47m)

 - JW3 - .702x (12.64m)

 

Avatar Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .264x (19.01m)

 - DS2 - .385x (21.05m)

 - Batman - .81x (28.37m)

 - TG2 - 1.059x (34.63m)

 - JW3 - .694x (28.85m)

 

Don't have any comps this far out for weekend sales unfortunately.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	3D	34	148	1,123	4,252	26.41%	$15.27	$17,153.74
		PLF	22	75	1,724	4,763	36.20%	$16.02	$27,625.43
		Standard	92	239	1,217	10,979	11.08%	$12.25	$14,905.02
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	48	102	1,077	5,949	18.10%	$15.46	$16,647.45
		PLF	33	232	2,120	6,822	31.08%	$16.42	$34,817.54
		Standard	67	232	1,135	8,559	13.26%	$11.82	$13,411.34
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	48	98	1,127	5,949	18.94%	$14.40	$16,233.30
		PLF	33	206	2,209	6,828	32.35%	$15.65	$34,565.39
		Standard	66	138	935	8,448	11.07%	$11.01	$10,293.14
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	48	48	560	5,949	9.41%	$13.80	$7,727.87
		PLF	33	109	1,382	6,822	20.26%	$15.34	$21,196.66
		Standard	65	100	651	8,345	7.80%	$10.02	$6,524.19
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	N	109	362	3,163	14,889	21.24%	$15.44	$48,847.22
		Y	39	100	901	5,105	17.65%	$12.03	$10,836.97
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	67	398	3,278	10,138	32.33%	$16.01	$52,469.67
		Y	81	168	1,054	11,192	9.42%	$11.77	$12,406.66
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	67	240	2,143	10,256	20.90%	$16.80	$35,996.21
		Y	80	202	2,128	10,969	19.40%	$11.79	$25,095.62
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	65	91	920	9,924	9.27%	$17.49	$16,095.11
		Y	81	166	1,673	11,192	14.95%	$11.57	$19,353.61
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

*Per M37 suggestion, I've split out 3D from the other PLF showings. 

 

Avatar previews T-2 comps

 - NWH - .227x (11.35m)

 - Batman - .789x (13.89m)

 - Thor 4 - .492x (14.26m)

 - DS2 - .3x (10.79m)

 - BP2 - .548x (15.33m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.124x (16.52m)

 - FB3 - 3.044x (18.27m)

 - JW3 - .659x (11.86m)

 

Underwhelming in Santikos to say the least.  At least Friday and Saturday are looking solid.

 

Avatar Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .283x (20.37m)

 - DS2 - .397x (21.73m)

 - Batman - .81x (28.24m)

 - TG2 - 1.051x (34.4m)

 - JW3 - .649x (26.99m)

 

 

Avatar Sat T-4 comps

 - NWH - .32x (23.69m)

 

Avatar Sun T-5 comps

 - NWH - .303x (19.47m)

 

[titanic2187]

The second largest cinema chain in my country deploy some weird pricing strategy. A strategy that I am not even sure if it is permissible. 

 

They charge 3D and the 2D with the same price but the 2D pricing is way more expensive than other recent movies. Seem like the 2D audience is subsidizing 3D audience. It is obvious they want to lure people to 3D show given that the resistance against 3D has been intense locally. A more expensive price tag will further push people away.

Does this work? Yes, apparently so. Avatar 2 the highest occupancy rate for 3D movies in many many years, even the regular 3D showtime high unusual high ticket sales.

[ChipDerby]

I'm curious, would any OW number for Avatar be "underwhelming" or no because we're all expecting huge legs?

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'm curious, would any OW number for Avatar be "underwhelming" or no because we're all expecting huge legs?

Not everyone is expecting huge legs, just the stans

[JustLurking]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

Not everyone is expecting huge legs, just the stans

Depends on what you mean by huge. A 4.5-5.5x multi range isn't insane but it's pretty huge for an opening of this scale.

 

If it drops below 150 for the OW I'm going to find that a bit disappointing though. Below 140 is quite a bit disappointing.

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'm curious, would any OW number for Avatar be "underwhelming" or no because we're all expecting huge legs?

i think below 150 would be concerning, 150-170 good, 170-200, great, 200+ astonishing

[M37]

24 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'm curious, would any OW number for Avatar be "underwhelming" or no because we're all expecting huge legs?

Whether it’s “underwhelming” probably depends on one’s overall expectations, but this is a title more than most that doesn’t need a HUGE OW to generate a high total gross. 

 

With that said, I think if one is projecting legs of 4.5x or greater, it’s really expecting a significant outlier outcome. It certainly can happen, but it’s not the where the midpoint should be. So an OW under $150/$160M probably - but not definitely - leads to a total under $700M

[XXR & Friends]

38 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'm curious, would any OW number for Avatar be "underwhelming" or no because we're all expecting huge legs?

I would say under $140M is underwhelming for me. That doesn’t mean it would be a bad number it would just be less than the lower threshold I built into my head.

[ThomasNicole]

I think maybe @M37 does have a strong point about A2 need to be treated as 2 movies. One that people planned to watch it on premium screens, and one more GP friendly that will just walkup. 

 

Deadline breakdown of presales seems to be in line with that in my reading: 

 

Domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water stand at an estimated $38M through yesterday, double that of Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World at the same point in time but behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which respectively opened to $181.3M and $187.4M. Seventy-four precent of the presales are for 3D showtimes and 15% of those advance ticket sales are for showtimes outside of opening weekend. The big chains are seeing a big proportion of advance ticket sales in Imax but not at the level of Marvel movies which is to be expected given the older adult nature of this property. Meaning, it’s typically the fanboys who pre-purchase their tickets.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think maybe @M37 does have a strong point about A2 need to be treated as 2 movies. One that people planned to watch it on premium screens, and one more GP friendly that will just walkup. 

 

Deadline breakdown of presales seems to be in line with that in my reading: 

 

Domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water stand at an estimated $38M through yesterday, double that of Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World at the same point in time but behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which respectively opened to $181.3M and $187.4M. Seventy-four precent of the presales are for 3D showtimes and 15% of those advance ticket sales are for showtimes outside of opening weekend. The big chains are seeing a big proportion of advance ticket sales in Imax but not at the level of Marvel movies which is to be expected given the older adult nature of this property. Meaning, it’s typically the fanboys who pre-purchase their tickets.

It's an intriguing point, but I'm wary of putting too much stock into this idea. I would imagine that nearly every movie sees lower growth rates in PLF relative to normal screens in the final days. Without comps on the relative growth rate, I'm not sure how much we can take from the split. 

[Derpity]

According to Deadline, these are Avatar 2's 3D pre-sales by region:

 

74% North America

81% Europe

70% Asia

65% Latin America

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water stand at an estimated $38M through yesterday, double that of Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World at the same point in time

While it can’t possibly follow those sales pattern percentages, even if it were to just add what JWD or TGM added from now through Sunday that would be a huge win.

[ThomasNicole]

I find interesting that the presales are very big overall, to a point where 15% of them aren't even for OW. This bodes very well to it's legs. 

 

Also nice to see that while the movie is getting behind TGM and JWD for previews, it's still double that overall. 

 

Liked it that they adressed that some factors maybe can bring the OW closer to 150M than the higher estimates discussed earlier.

 

Tbh, all this info just made it harder to precisely predict where this movie will land. If walkups ended up being weak through the weekend, maybe something like 140M between TGM and JWD can happen. But with good walkups, DS2 and BP2 doesn't look impossible at all. 

 

For now, i'll stick with my 155-160M prediction because i think it's the reasonable, not overly pessimistic or optmistic. But it's another sign we're in for a very fun run in the coming days / weeks.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Domestic presales for Avatar: The Way of Water stand at an estimated $38M through yesterday, double that of Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World at the same point in time but behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which respectively opened to $181.3M and $187.4M. Seventy-four precent of the presales are for 3D showtimes and 15% of those advance ticket sales are for showtimes outside of opening weekend. The big chains are seeing a big proportion of advance ticket sales in Imax but not at the level of Marvel movies which is to be expected given the older adult nature of this property. Meaning, it’s typically the fanboys who pre-purchase their tickets.

 

 

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I find interesting that the presales are very big overall, to a point where 15% of them aren't even for OW. This bodes very well to it's legs. 

 

One thing about this.  Seeing spread out pre-sales for the holiday season is pretty standard.  It's one of the reasons (besides it being Jimbo) that I've been expecting very good legs for A2.