The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

16 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days (48hr Update)
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	6	4,565
Seats Added	1,178	859,653
Seats Sold	10,202	88,502
1/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,571	98,704	860,831	11.47%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	13	78	179
ATP
$18.35

 

Here is the "true" T-29 (as opposed to the 48hr update) from last night.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	7	4,565
Seats Added	1,228	859,653
Seats Sold	11,444	88,502
1/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,572	99,946	860,881	11.61%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	15	80	182
ATP
$18.34

[Verrows]

Well if $16M previews is pretty much impossible then I guess I can throw out my 15-45-110-128 (Previews-OD-3dOW-4dOW) predict. My internal multi may have been generous cut I can't see it doing just $110M now off $20M+ previews.

[el sid]

Missing, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 73 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): still no showtimes
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 54 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 56+ → error reports the whole day

Total tickets sold in 5/6 theaters: 209. When I assume that it had the same jump in the AMC Universal as in the other theaters then it had 221 sold tickets for today (68 instead of 56 in the AMC Universal).
I saw that the design of the website has changed and noticed some other small changes but I can only hope that these annoying error reports vanish.

Up modest 22% since yesterday in the theaters where I could count.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Crawdads (2.3M from previews) had 262 sold tickets,

The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets

and Barbarian (850k) had 289 sold tickets.

The Crawdads comp would suggest around 2M but of course I doubt that. From the other two comps it's rather 700k-800k but I would rather go a bit lower (500k+) because of the pretty bad jump.

Missing, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 97 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 51 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 32+ → also error reports the whole day

Total tickets sold in 6/7 theaters: 195+. When I again assume that it had the same jump in the AMC Universal then its presales number is 204 for Friday.

Up 27% since yesterday in the theaters where I could count.
Comps (both counted on Thursday for Friday): Crawdads (17.3M) had again 262 sold tickets,

The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets.
Barbarian (10.5M) had 249 sold tickets

Old (16.9M) had 500 sold tickets

and Last Night in Soho (4.2M) had 283 sold tickets.
 

Exactly the number of the Invitation so maybe around 7M OW. But could also come in lower.

[filmlover]

 

[keysersoze123]

Regal is shutting down locations even in big markets like NY and CA. I fondly remember Regal Union Square selling out all midnight shows for Dark Knight. It was so much fun tracking just the sellouts in the pre reserved seating era. Since mojo forums dont exist, the thread at KJ was super fun back then. 

 

So Cinemark should exceed Regal after this? @charlie Jatinder what do you think?

[Eric is Quiet]

16 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

Missing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	150	5021	2.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.586x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (703K)

0.570x of Old T-1 (855K)

0.505x of Don't Breathe 2 T-1 (487K)

0.250x of Candyman T-1 (474K)

0.485x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (340K)

1.240x of X T-1 (545K)

0.204x of The Black Phone T-1 (612K)

0.086x of Nope T-1 (550K)

0.746x of Beast T-1 (690K)

1.442x of The Invitation T-1 (1.12M)

0.244x of The Woman King T-1 (415K)

Missing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	367	5360	6.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 217

 

Comp

0.635x of Escape Room 2 (762K)

0.430x of Old (645K)

0.358x of Don't Breathe 2 (345K)

0.259x of Candyman (493K)

0.948x of Last Night in Soho (664K)

1.535x of X (676K)

0.276x of The Black Phone (827K)

0.116x of Nope (744K)

0.882x of Beast (816K)

1.257x of The Invitation (974K)

0.295x of The Woman King (502K)

[Boxofficerules]

When would Scream VI tracking start?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Regal is shutting down locations even in big markets like NY and CA. I fondly remember Regal Union Square selling out all midnight shows for Dark Knight. It was so much fun tracking just the sellouts in the pre reserved seating era. Since mojo forums dont exist, the thread at KJ was super fun back then. 

 

So Cinemark should exceed Regal after this? @charlie Jatinder what do you think?

 

If the Always Accurate™ WIkipedia is something to go by:

 

Quote

Theatre Chain	Theatres Count(2018)	Screens Count(2018)	Website	Headquarters	Markets	Parent Chain	Chains Acquired	Notes
AMC Entertainment	591	7,712	https://www.amctheatres.com/	Leawood, KS	United States, Europe - Total of 16 countries		Carmike Cinemas[17] Kerasotes Theatres Starplex Cinemas Cinetopia in 2019[18]	[19]
Regal Cinemas	558	7,306	https://www.regmovies.com/	Knoxville, TN	United States	Cineworld	Regal Cinemas (2002) United Artists Theatres (2002) Edwards Theatres (2002) Sawmill Theaters Hoyts Cinemas (2003 US locations) Eastern Federal Theatres (2005) Consolidated Theatres (2008) Great Escape Theatres (2012) Hollywood Theaters (2013; "Wallace Theaters") Warren Theatres (2017)	[32]
Cinemark Theatres	525	4,566	[1]	Plano, TX	United States, Central America, South America		Century Theatres[20] Rave Cinemas[21]	[22]

(offer not applicable in the very rare cases where Wikipedia is not accurate)

[Shawn Robbins]

9 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

When would Scream VI tracking start?

If you mean for pre-sales in this thread, it will be when those tickets go on sale. Likely within a few hours to a day for the first scrapers and manual counters.

 

Independent tracking (presales + other metrics) will go public February 10, regardless of sales beginning or not, though my team and I already have it on radar for non-public forecasts until then.

 

What the industry calls "traditional" tracking (NRG's sample audience polling) will probably leak to Deadline and other trades around February 15 at the earliest. Maybe later since it's not a big tentpole and they aren't consistent about reporting those.

[misterpepp]

On 1/5/2023 at 4:40 PM, datpepper said:

To follow up on this, I'm hearing Magic Mike 3's release is also going to be similarly scaled down. Less promotion than originally anticipated for it, potentially less theaters too. Starting to believe those "WBD has no money" rumors are true.

 

While it doesn't seem like it'll be as limited as House Party... it does seem like there was truth to this. Think even a certain banned BOT member has mentioned that WB is turning some theaters down from playing it. A pal of mine has the release projected for ~2k locations, but again that could fluctuate.

 

Should have a ticket sale date very soon.

Edited January 19, 2023 by datpepper

[thajdikt]

5 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

16 is impossible. I would bet like $5k for a $10 return. 

Impossible as in that high or that low?

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

Impossible as in that high or that low?

16 is too low now that we have early PS data. It’s running about 15-20% behind Wakanda Forever (which did 28). It may not keep that pace but it’s not dropping down to over 40% behind it.

[Manny G]

24 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

While it doesn't seem like it'll be as limited as House Party... it does seem like there was truth to this. Think even a certain banned BOT member has mentioned that WB is turning some theaters down from playing it. A pal of mine has the release projected for ~2k locations, but again that could fluctuate.

 

Should have a ticket sale date very soon.

Those were movies produced as direct to HBOMax movies. Expect for tentpole like Blue Beetle, they don’t want to attach a theatrical marketing budget to those as their balance sheet would explode. That what happened with Paramount and Smile despite being a mega hit it didn’t serve their balance sheet much. Some of you should start listening to earning calls you’ll get many insights. 

[misterpepp]

13 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Those were movies produced as direct to HBOMax movies. Expect for tentpole like Blue Beetle, they don’t want to attach a theatrical marketing budget to those as their balance sheet would explode. That what happened with Paramount and Smile despite being a mega hit it didn’t serve their balance sheet much.

 

I don't recall Paramount spending next-to-nothing on promoting Smile, and last I checked they opened it at 3.6k+ locations. If WB is upgrading these titles to theatrical, they have the choice to not bother with upgrading the marketing spend as well (a la House Party), but I think they'll find that they'll be making a mistake with Magic Mike 3, a movie that I and others believe has potential.

 

Quote

Some of you should start listening to earning calls you’ll get many insights. 

 

Very rude and condescending.

Edited January 19, 2023 by datpepper

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

 

Thought the Berkeley Regal was gonna close immediately last year when it was announced that there's gonna be new housing built, but I guess this makes it official. Also the last cinema that's walkable from campus. Kinda sucks eventhough the Landmark cinema loss was a bigger hit.

[filmlover]

Honestly I'm just grateful that a Magic Mike 3 exists in the world at all, let alone is coming to theaters lmao.

 

Let's not forget the last one saw a pretty hefty financial decline and that is coming up on almost a decade ago. But 1) these movies are so cheap that this is destined to be profitable even with another 50% drop and 2) diminished returns are hardly unsurprising for any franchise that wasn't initially planned as one (and is almost always the case for sequels to movies sold on marketing hooks - first major movie about male strippers starring notable actors - that were always going to be fresh for only one movie).

Edited January 19, 2023 by filmlover

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

When You Finish Saving the World T-2: 12.39% Awareness, 4.97 Interest

80 for Brady T-16: 28.35%, 4.95

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-23: 34.98%, 5.18

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-72: 28.69%, 5.06

Chevalier T-79: 15.37%, 4.54

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-177: 33.34%, 5.96

 

Missing T-2: 30.46% Awareness, 5.74 Interest

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 72% chance of 10M

 

Inside T-51: 12.97% Awareness, 5.28 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 73% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 5M

Original - Low Interest: 71% chance of 5M, 57% chance of 10M

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-30: 40.11% Awareness, 5.81 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 33% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 25% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 90M, 10% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 90M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 90M

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-65: 55% Awareness, 6.61 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 87% chance of 100M

[Shawn Robbins]

Friendly note about comping Quantumania to Wakanda Forever: the latter had Veterans Day deflating Thursday and inflating Friday, not to mention an extra week of sales (T-39 vs Quant's T-31).

 

This will be noted in tracking going out tomorrow, but Thursday sales shares for Quant are a bit higher than Friday relative to where BP: WF stood at the same point.

 

I'd be careful leaning on WF too closely this early (which may overinflate expectations unnecessarily) and would consider DSITMOM to balance things out as a recent MCU title without a holiday on Thursday or Friday and when school was still in session before the weekend. Both also started sales with a similar lead time to release (T-30 for DSITMOM, T-31 for Quant).

 

To that end, weighing Friday business is also important. Granted, Quantumania has Presidents Day on Day 4, but is anything ever apples-to-apples? 

 

TL; DR -- $16M is certainly on the table, IMHO, even if it's at the (very) conservative end. That's not to say that a higher preview target of $22-25M is impossible either. A lot can happen (or not happen) in four weeks.

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Friendly note about comping Quantumania to Wakanda Forever: the latter had Veterans Day deflating Thursday and inflating Friday, not to mention an extra week of sales (T-39 vs Quant's T-31).

 

This will be noted in tracking going out tomorrow, but Thursday sales shares for Quant are a bit higher than Friday relative to where BP: WF stood at the same point.

 

I'd be careful leaning on WF too closely this early (which may overinflate expectations unnecessarily) and would consider DSITMOM to balance things out as a recent MCU title without a holiday on Thursday or Friday and when school was still in session before the weekend. Both also started sales with a similar lead time to release (T-30 for DSITMOM, T-31 for Quant).

 

To that end, weighing Friday business is also important. Granted, Quantumania has Presidents Day on Day 4, but is anything ever apples-to-apples? 

 

TL; DR -- $16M is certainly on the table, IMHO, even if it's at the (very) conservative end. That's not to say that a higher preview target of $22-25M is impossible either. A lot can happen (or not happen) in four weeks.

A couple of responses:

 

I agree of course that WF shouldn't be used for weekend comps due to Veteran's day. But I don't think that the extra week means that it shouldn't be used as one of the chief comps for Thursday. While the Friday distribution was atypical, its Thursday presale run followed fairly normal trends for an MCU film, and importantly it is one of the closest starts to Quantumania in Thursday sales volume

 

Despite the similarity in PS sales length, I think DS2's initial sales are simply too high to make it an appropriate initlal comp for Quantumania. Generally the best comps are fairly close in volume, since PS ratio tends to exaggerate what the final Thursday ratio would be. For example, DS2's day 1 was a bit over half of NWH, but the actual Thursday was closer to 75%. Thor 4 was around 60% of DS2 but ended up more like 80%. It's a normal trend that we see for pretty much every PS run, especially when the comps being used are of similar genre (and here, it's the same franchise and fanbase). 

 

As far as 16, it seems like going that low would require a huge outlier run. As I mentioned before, that would require a preview below Avatar 2 (not just a decrease in the ratio, but actually losing tickets relative to A2, which didn't exactly have incredible walkups). For an MCU comp, we had BW do 13.2 previews in 2021 with a much lower presales start than Ant-Man 3, and while the situation has changed since then, a preview finish only 20% higher would be quite surprising to me, especially since BW's late burst wasn't anything amazing. My personal low end is around 19M at the moment. 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

16 is too low now that we have early PS data. It’s running about 15-20% behind Wakanda Forever (which did 28). It may not keep that pace but it’s not dripping down to over 40% behind it.

I see. Thanks for the answer. Looks like I´m going to eat my words about this having previews closer to Ant-Man 2