The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Boxofficerules]

What are the chances of $50 million for Knock?

[GOGODanca]

8 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances of $50 million for Knock?

opening weekend? zero

 

domestically: 100% unless its complete garbage

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	185	7393	2.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp - T-5

1.667x of M3GAN (4.58M)

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	208	7393	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-4

1.677x of M3GAN (4.61M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Slay said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3756	31384	11.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 89

 

Comp - T-19

2.492x of Black Widow (32.9M)

3.130x of Eternals (29.73M)

0.890x of The Batman (19.23M)

0.426x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.34M)

0.801x of Thor 4 (23.23M)

0.607x of Black Panther 2 (17M)

2.557x of Avatar 2 (43.47M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3841	31384	12.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 85

 

Comp T-18

2.442x of Black Widow (32.23M)

3.151x of Eternals (29.93M)

0.881x of The Batman (19.03M)

0.429x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.46M)

0.800x of Thor 4 (23.2M)

0.613x of Black Panther 2 (17.17M)

2.486x of Avatar 2 (42.26M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28384	32556	4172	12.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-19 Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.11		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	19.76%		15.88m
L&T	73.45		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	24.60%		21.30m
BP2	66.08		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	24.83%		18.50m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     815/12953  [6.29% sold]
Matinee:    127/3317  [3.83% | 3.04% of all tickets sold]
3D:           469/6479  [7.24% | 11.24% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	28265	32556	4291	13.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

119

 

T-18 Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.54		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	20.32%		16.03m
L&T	73.03		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	25.30%		21.18m
BP2	66.75		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	25.54%		18.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     854/12953  [6.59% sold]
Matinee:    133/3317  [4.01% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            491/6479  [7.58% | 11.44% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/29/2023 at 8:17 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-4	Jax	5	15	8	45	1,926	2.34%
		Phx	5	12	3	29	1,360	2.13%
		Ral	7	22	4	67	1,887	3.55%
	Total		17	49	15	141	5,173	2.73%
Ant-Man 3	T-18	Jax	6	91	25	1,070	15,860	6.75%
		Phx	6	85	17	1,135	15,027	7.55%
		Ral	8	102	30	1,116	13,657	8.17%
	Total		20	278	72	3,321	44,544	7.46%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-2	Jax	3	3	9	59	446	13.23%
		Phx	1	1	9	47	106	44.34%
		Ral	1	1	0	5	139	3.60%
	Total		5	5	18	111	691	16.06%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-3	Jax	3	3	0	19	446	4.26%
		Phx	1	1	2	18	106	16.98%
		Ral	1	1	0	2	73	2.74%
	Total		5	5	2	39	625	6.24%
Knock at Cabin	T-4	Jax	6	17	1	57	2,908	1.96%
		Phx	4	10	1	42	1,554	2.70%
		Ral	7	19	4	46	2,927	1.57%
	Total		17	46	6	145	7,389	1.96%
Magic Mike 3	T-11	Jax	4	20	1	33	2,295	1.44%
		Phx	4	9	0	4	1,567	0.26%
		Ral	7	16	0	30	2,018	1.49%
	Total		15	45	1	67	5,880	1.14%

 

80 for Brady T-4 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.474x (1.24m)

 - Menu - missed

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - 1.057x (3.43m)

 - Downton + EA - .523x (941k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - missed

 

Knock at the Cabin T-4 comps

 - Nope - .203x (1.3m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Northman - missed

 - Crawdads - .423x (845k)

 - Old - 1.859x (2.79m)

 - Smile - missed

 

Magic Mike 3 T-11 comps

 - 80 for Brady - missed

 - Violent Night - 1.196x (1.32m)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-18 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.14x (28.23m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-3	Jax	5	15	11	56	1,926	2.91%
		Phx	5	12	2	31	1,360	2.28%
		Ral	7	22	3	70	1,887	3.71%
	Total		17	49	16	157	5,173	3.03%
Ant-Man 3	T-17	Jax	6	91	51	1,121	15,860	7.07%
		Phx	6	85	36	1,171	15,027	7.79%
		Ral	8	102	26	1,142	13,657	8.36%
	Total		20	278	113	3,434	44,544	7.71%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-1	Jax	3	3	6	65	446	14.57%
		Phx	1	1	3	50	106	47.17%
		Ral	1	1	4	9	139	6.47%
	Total		5	5	13	124	691	17.95%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-2	Jax	3	3	1	20	446	4.48%
		Phx	1	1	1	19	106	17.92%
		Ral	1	1	0	2	73	2.74%
	Total		5	5	2	41	625	6.56%
Chosen 3 Finale	T-3	Jax	5	12	302	302	1,677	18.01%
		Phx	4	10	518	518	1,813	28.57%
		Ral	7	16	518	518	1,827	28.35%
	Total		16	38	1,338	1,338	5,317	25.16%
Knock at Cabin	T-3	Jax	6	19	13	70	3,674	1.91%
		Phx	4	9	1	43	1,400	3.07%
		Ral	7	18	10	56	2,812	1.99%
	Total		17	46	24	169	7,886	2.14%
Magic Mike 3	T-10	Jax	4	20	6	39	2,295	1.70%
		Phx	4	9	0	4	1,567	0.26%
		Ral	7	16	11	41	2,018	2.03%
	Total		15	45	17	84	5,880	1.43%
Titanic	T-10	Jax	5	13	17	17	1,950	0.87%
		Phx	4	8	16	16	1,086	1.47%
		Ral	6	12	19	19	1,372	1.38%
	Total		15	33	52	52	4,408	1.18%

 

80 for Brady T-3 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.453x (1.23m)

 - Menu - 1.04x (1.04m)

 - Violent Night - 1.377x (1.51m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .974x (3.16m)

 - Downton + EA - .497x (895k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - missed

 

Knock at the Cabin T-3 comps

 - Nope - .207x (1.32m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Northman - .587x (792k)

 - Crawdads - .388x (775k)

 - Old - 1.69x (2.54m)

 - Smile - missed

 

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-3 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .653x (2.45m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.224x (2.49m)

 - Left Behind - 5.107x (3.12m)

 

Magic Mike 3 T-10 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.183

 - Violent Night - 1.355x (1.49m)

 

Titanic T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .205x (655k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-17 comps

 - NWH - .44x (21.98m)

 - Black Widow - 2.08x (27.51m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .372x (13.38m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - 2.9x (27.55m)

[thajdikt]

Was Eternals ever on the cards to get 100M+ OW? Before it got terrible reviews and WOM? Or was it always going to end up in 70-80M range?

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Was Eternals ever on the cards to get 100M+ OW? Before it got terrible reviews and WOM? Or was it always going to end up in 70-80M range?

I expected 100+ after the first day, after that it's pace wasn't as great, but still looked like 90+ before reviews iirc. After reviews started coming out there was a pretty noticeable stall in sales. 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I expected 100+ after the first day, after that it's pace wasn't as great, but still looked like 90+ before reviews iirc. After reviews started coming out there was a pretty noticeable stall in sales. 

Thanks! Is Ant-Man showing any similar signs to Eternals in regarding to pace?

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17

East Coast/ Overall total

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	18	860	3783	4643	0.1852
	Fri	4	23	623	5670	6293	0.0989
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	18	592	4050	4642	0.1275
	fri	4	26	258	6402	6660	0.0387
New B	Thurs	3	7	87	1329	1416	0.0614
	fri	3	14	73	2680	2753	0.0265
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	6	249	1138	1387	0.1795
	fri	1	8	161	1685	1846	0.0872

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	831	2661	3492	0.2379
Calgary	Thurs	4	23	375	6072	4884	0.0767
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	1541	5532	7073	0.2178
Quebec	Thurs	4	18	860	3783	4643	0.1852
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	18	592	4050	4642	0.1275
New B	Thurs	3	7	87	1329	1416	0.0614
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	6	249	1138	1387	0.1795
Thurs	Total	23	117	4535	24565	27537	0.1646
Vancouve	Fri	3	20	534	3492	4026	0.1326
Calgary	Fri	4	29	231	4499	6173	0.0374
Toronto	Fri	4	36	998	8529	9527	0.1047
Quebec	Fri	4	23	623	5670	6293	0.0989
Nova Sc	fri	4	26	258	6402	6660	0.0387
New B	fri	3	14	73	2680	2753	0.0265
St Jon NF	fri	1	8	161	1685	1846	0.0872
Friday	Total	23	156	2878	32957	37278	0.0772

 

 

I won't be posting again until at least early next week. got stuff going on this week and won't be able to get and do a proper roundup.  That will though give me at least one more coast to coast count before Antman opens

[M37]

43 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Thanks! Is Ant-Man showing any similar signs to Eternals in regarding to pace?

I can't speak to Eternals, wasn't tracking then and haven't really looked back at that data, but ...

 

Pace has slowed over the last 3-6 days, running more on par with BPWF and Thor L&T. That's not a bad pace: continuing that trajectory still probably gets you to $20M+ for Thursday and over $100M for the 3-day - but that expectation was that a smaller starting value would then later pace ahead of the big brothers, and at this point its really not.  Still plenty of time for that to change, and this far out the advance are way more sensitive to outside factors, but going to take some work to get the $23-$25M+ numbers that were floated after the opening day of sales

[misterpepp]

Marlowe’s preview shows start as early as 10am on the day before the official release date. Think that sets a new preview start time record by multiple hours. It’s a true full day of previews now.

 

@Porthos Just checking in on how you’re feeling for no reason at all.

[M37]

1 minute ago, datpepper said:

Marlowe’s preview shows start as early as 10am on the day before the official release date. Think that sets a new preview start time record by multiple hours. It’s a true full day of previews now.

 

@Porthos Just checking in on how you’re feeling for no reason at all.

Those aren’t preview, it’s just opening day, regardless of what the “official” day is. Makes sense given it’s Valentine’s Day, but I’m not sure why they’re playing the semantics game here; not every movie has to have “previews”

[misterpepp]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Those aren’t preview, it’s just opening day, regardless of what the “official” day is. Makes sense given it’s Valentine’s Day, but I’m not sure why they’re playing the semantics game here; not every movie has to have “previews”

It should be considered opening day, but as far as I can tell, these are all going to be rolled into the Wed box office for the movie. 🥴

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

Thanks! Is Ant-Man showing any similar signs to Eternals in regarding to pace?

No.

31 minutes ago, M37 said:

I can't speak to Eternals, wasn't tracking then and haven't really looked back at that data, but ...

 

Pace has slowed over the last 3-6 days, running more on par with BPWF and Thor L&T. That's not a bad pace: continuing that trajectory still probably gets you to $20M+ for Thursday and over $100M for the 3-day - but that expectation was that a smaller starting value would then later pace ahead of the big brothers, and at this point its really not.  Still plenty of time for that to change, and this far out the advance are way more sensitive to outside factors, but going to take some work to get the $23-$25M+ numbers that were floated after the opening day of sales

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by on par with BPWF and Thor. It isn't on par with Thor, but being on par with BPWF will reach 23-25 if it continues on that trajectory. Sacto had a couple of bad days, but overall I haven't seen anything to change the overall outlook since the first day. 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Marlowe’s preview shows start as early as 10am on the day before the official release date. Think that sets a new preview start time record by multiple hours. It’s a true full day of previews now.

 

@Porthos Just checking in on how you’re feeling for no reason at all.

 

 

Spoiler

I can 100% guarantee you I won't be tracking anything that comes close to that line, so I really am "Feelin' Fine". 👍

 

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

No.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by on par with BPWF and Thor. It isn't on par with Thor, but being on par with BPWF will reach 23-25 if it continues on that trajectory. Sacto had a couple of bad days, but overall I haven't seen anything to change the overall outlook since the first day. 

 

Demos will not be the same for BPWF and Ant Man - Reminder from Deadline - "Wakanda Forever pulled in a Black audience of 43% and Latino and Hispanic of 22%, per PostTrak, which combined at 65% is greater than the first 2018 movie’s respective demos, which counted a 58% turnout."

 

Between the widly different demos and the holiday weekend (which spurred sales for Friday over Thursday night), BPWF is an awful Thursday presale comp for this movie.  The on point comp should be Dr Strange + 15% ticket inflation - no skew on Dr Strange from a normal MCU demo (which Ant Man should also have), it is the most recent non-summer/non-holiday open, etc...

 

And to balance Dr Strange, if you think it was too much of an event and too humorless, the 2nd closest is Thor is you think this is a walkup humor/more family skewing MCU...

 

So, for me, I add both and divide by 2 and then add 15%:)...

 

If I'm wrong, it won't be the 1st time...but I don't think I'm wrong - I don't see a 65% Black/Hispanic overall demo turnout for this movie.

 

PS - And to continue how awful the BPWF comp is, this is one more Deadline nugget that will not repeat here..."Even more amazing is that this time around, women over 25 repped the biggest crowd for Wakanda Forever at 32%",

 

https://deadline.com/2022/11/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-marketing-campaign-nba-lexus-adidas-target-1235171140/

Edited January 30, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-46: 47.61% Awareness, 5.57 Interest

About My Father T-88: 11.74%, 4.76

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-88: 18.55%, 4.77

Strays T-130: 12.61%, 5.0

Barbie T-172: 38.26%, 4.64

 

80 for Brady T-4: 35.61% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 14% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M

 

Knock at the Cabin T-4: 37.61% Awareness, 6.13 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 30M, 76% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-11: 39.32% Awareness, 5.17 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 14% chance of 20M

 

Creed III T-32: 53.62% Awareness, 6.14 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 70M, 57% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M

 

Champions T-39: 12.97% Awareness, 4.84 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M, 

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance of 5M, 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 40% chance of 5M, 20% chance of 10M

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by on par with BPWF and Thor. It isn't on par with Thor, but being on par with BPWF will reach 23-25 if it continues on that trajectory. Sacto had a couple of bad days, but overall I haven't seen anything to change the overall outlook since the first day. 

I’m looking at growth rates and the trajectory vs comps, it’s been very flat-ish for the past week

 

I’m not sure from where you got $23-$25, as the average of the BPWF comps has been in $19-$20 range since T-24, Thor in $22-23 range since T-22 (keeping in mind Thor had a later sales start and had only recently reached the bottom of the U-curve). 

 

It’s probably a lot easier to see than explain; I hope to have the chart set up by tomorrow

[ky02121]

When are the reviews for Knock at the Cabin coming out?