The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

52 minutes ago, Eric Foreman said:

Thank goodness I now work the dayside shift.

Solidarity retracted you no good daywalker 😔

[screambaby]

Glad to see star wars is stil breathing even if we have to go back 40 years and have ewoks.

 

[screambaby]

GoTG  2 made 145 OW if I'm not mistaken?150 after 6 years would be disappointing?

 

I think we're being spoiled  by the debuts of creed 3 scream six and Wick 4....I mean even age of ultron didn't beat avenger ones opening weekend..

 

Now If it comes in between 90 and a 120 like I saw someone estimate that would be a disaster...

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by screambaby

[keysersoze123]

On 4/26/2023 at 2:21 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians MTC2

Previews - 74125/598057 1053759.68 3804 shows + 2703

Friday(overnight run) - 58553/834224 774753.28 5305 shows // grew about 15K in past week

 

Definitely showing some sign of life now. 

 

Guardians MTC2 

Previews - 77434/598717 1127001.73 3806 shows +3309

 

It did boost yesterday. more than 20%. I expect even stronger days ahead. Let us see where it lands by end of this week. I am hoping 90k+ at worst and if it gets major boost tomorrow it could go even higher. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1

Previews -  3394/125996 42418.22 1150 shows

Margaret MTC1 Previews - 6734/125291 82308.10 1144 shows

 

I tracked this thinking this will be a mini breakout based on @Shawn predictions. may be this is doing badly in the coasts and doing better in heartland or something? I am not sure how wide the early shows were but its going to struggle to hit even 500K in previews today. Based on sales seen today and friday sales, I am not seeing double digits OW.  

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Have to wonder if Return Of The Jedi could have had the highest gross of the new releases this weekend if it got a bigger theater release. It's less than a thousand right?

[TheFlatLannister]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1 Previews - 6734/125291 82308.10 1144 shows

 

I tracked this thinking this will be a mini breakout based on @Shawn predictions. may be this is doing badly in the coasts and doing better in heartland or something? I am not sure how wide the early shows were but its going to struggle to hit even 500K in previews today. Based on sales seen today and friday sales, I am not seeing double digits OW.  

I was seeing maybe $300k-$400k in previews 

 

 

 Not sure if it can do $10M+ but walkups could be strong

[Porthos]

@Menor Reborn

 

I decided to sit down and try to figure out a good ATP + Lack of Ontario adjustment for F9 to 2023 and came up with something that looks semi reasonable.

 

What I did was take four movies from 2022/23 (Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World Dominion, Black Adam, and John Wick 4) and then compare what both No Time to Die and F9 would have predicted for them locally.  Then I turned around took the percentage difference of that prediction with the actual result and then averaged that out to come up with an ad-hoc adjustment.

 

Funnily enough, NTTD was nearly perfectly predictive [go Sacto Dark Magic!]:

 

NTTD
TGM:    1.012 [pred 19.04m act 19.25m] 
JWD:    0.989 [pred 18.19m act 18.00m]
BA:     1.019 [pred 7.46m  act 7.6m]
Wick 4: 0.985 [pred 9.04m  act 8.9m]
AVG:    1.001

NOTE: the number in the second column is what needs to be multiplied against the predicted number to get the reported number

 

Unsurprisingly F9, possibly due to sampling differences, was a bit more over the map:

 

F9
TGM:    1.184 [pred 16.27m act 19.25m]
JWD:    1.127 [pred 15.98m act 18.00m]
BA:     1.132 [pred 6.72m  act 7.6m]
Wick 4: 1.086 [pred 8.20m  act 8.9m]
AVG:    1.132

 

Naturally the biggest difference between the two is a lack of Ontario.  But also slightly different demos between something like NTTD, which should skew slightly older, and something like F9.  Also early access PLF showings for NTTD, which bumped up the ATP, but not for F9.

 

The two outliers for F9 are TGM and Wick 4.  If I remove Wick 4 due to it being an R-rated film, but keep TGM for demo reasons, then that shifts the average to 1.147 for F9 (it doesn't materially change the avg for NTTD [1.007]).

 

That lines up fairly well with the NATO ticket ATP adjustment of +14.9%.  Is lack of Ontario, but then again local markets and have their quirks plus the sampling issues I've mentioned too many times.  Plus, as @keysersoze123 has mentioned a few times, the DOM wasn't nearly as recovered when F9 was around as it would be later in the year, so that's an x-factor that could counteract Ontario being missing.

 

I think I'm going to go with 1.147x as I do kinda sorta want an upper and lower bound, if within a tight-ish range. And I like the fact that it lines up with the NATO ticket adjustment fairly well.  Frankly though, as more time goes by, more of the comps will be able to come in, so F9 as a comp will become less important.

 

Anyway, that's my rationale for what really is an ad-hoc measurement anyway.  And I'll roll it out starting with tonight's update.  NTTD will come online in a couple of days.  Little leery of throwing in TGM right now given how massively it over-performed at the beginning of its run here in Sacto, but maybe it'll be interesting for pace purposes.  Black Adam will have something of the opposite problem as Fast X will have soooooooo many more days of pre-sales as to swamp it for a while.  Wick 4, even if it being R-rated might be "within the ballpark enough" to at least be worth a look, again if only for pacing.

 

But the real problem here is:  99 days of pre-sales is gonna throw just about ***ALL*** pace comparisons out of wack, probably until a couple of weeks before release.  Maybe even a week and a half/week plus.  Just sooooooo much demand burnt off that might ordinarily be sold at this point in a pre-sale run that we probably won't be able to have meaningful comparisons concerning pace for a while.  Even so, maybe something can be gleaned from all of it.

 

tl;dr:
F9 will be close to but not exactly the reported NATO ATP hike while NTTD, when it comes online, won't be adjusted at all.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Porthos

[cooldude97]

And know it's still far out but how is fast x doing?

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But the real problem here is:  99 days of pre-sales is gonna throw just about ***ALL*** pace comparisons out of wack, probably until a couple of weeks before release.  Maybe even a week and a half/week plus.  Just sooooooo much demand burnt off that might ordinarily be sold at this point in a pre-sale run that we probably won't be able to have meaningful comparisons concerning pace for a while.  Even so, maybe something can be gleaned from all of it.

Fwiw, I don’t think this long of a pre-sale period matters much in terms of where sales numbers would be at T-21 or T-14, and can even argue that not having a kick-off/marketing pushing when putting tickets on sale in the ~22-38 day range, when people really start to plan out and buy tickets, might actually diminish sales prior to the last couple of weeks when the final interest grows, rather than pulling sales earlier [when I log tracking numbers from this thread, I don’t even bother with anything before T-21]

 

I do agree it makes more difficult to pick up pace (growth rate) before it starts to move up, because the U-curve bottoms out so much, but the once that turn begins, IMO it behaves largely as it would have with a shorter sales period 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/26/2023 at 6:57 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
231	6389	34715	18.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

172

 

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

ATP - $14.40

 

 

 Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 3

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
231	6262	34715	18.0%

^{*Numbers taken as of 9:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

ATP - $14.40

 

 

 Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

 

The Little Mermaid

ATP $14.38

 

The script I was running picked up out of market data yesterday so ignore seats sold for today 

(Yesterday's numbers should have been around 6100)

 

Tomorrow the script should be working fine so numbers will be more accurate 

 

Note: It's at roughly half of Mario's OD

[kayumanggi]

 

[screambaby]

3 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Have to wonder if Return Of The Jedi could have had the highest gross of the new releases this weekend if it got a bigger theater release. It's less than a thousand right?

Does it matter if it sells the most tickets?

Having 97 SE Flashbacks

Edited April 28, 2023 by screambaby

[keysersoze123]

On 4/26/2023 at 9:35 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC2 Previews - 8108/429589 116800.16 2852 shows

 

F2 did like 21k+ on its OD and it was backloaded towards its OW. That said to reiterate F2 had a short presale cycle and so it was at accelerated pace. Mario did 18200K tickets but I started the run next day morning and it ran all day !!!. On itself this is not a bad number and it has a long presale window as well. 

Mermaid

MTC1 Previews - 15497/891741 276262.57 5432 shows // around 330PM PST

MTC2 Previews - 10070/448086 148996.90 2962 shows. 

 

It will plod along until closer to release. Dont know what the OW will be at this time. 

[charlie Jatinder]

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-7

Previews - 7,887/86,731 (341 showings) 

 

Comps
0.83x Ant-Man 3 - $14.5M

0.64x BP:WF - $17.9M

0.60x Thor 4 - $17.4M

2.45x Eternals - $23.3M

1.90x Black Widow - $26.5M

Looks good for $20M+ previews to me.

[stripe]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GoTG 3 MiniTC2 T-7

Previews - 7,887/86,731 (341 showings) 

 

Comps
0.83x Ant-Man 3 - $14.5M

0.64x BP:WF - $17.9M

0.60x Thor 4 - $17.4M

2.45x Eternals - $23.3M

1.90x Black Widow - $26.5M

Looks good for $20M+ previews to me.

 

Nice! 20M would be great after all

[Porthos]

On 4/27/2023 at 1:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26942	27722	780	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

16

 

T-22 Comp:

%

Sold T-22

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.12

56

1768

0/179

22879/24647

7.17%

33839

2.31%

7.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10130  [1.17% sold]
Matinee:    15/3525  [0.43% | 1.92% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Menor Reborn Ran out of time today to really sit down and hack out a good adjustment for F9, but I plan on working on it tomorrow before Jedi Survivor drops when I have the time.  FWIW, NTTD will be coming online very soon, and possibly a couple of others.  So more comps coming soon — just not tonight.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26937	27722	785	2.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-21 Comp:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	142.99		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		16962	4.63%		11.65m
JWD	41.76		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		33839	2.32%		7.52m
TG:M	34.15		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	6.84%		6.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     120/10130  [1.18% sold]
Matinee:    15/3525  [0.43% | 1.91% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/27/2023 at 1:05 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	25574	29983	4409	14.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

170

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	36.47		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	20.88%		13.13m
L&T	55.57		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	25.99%		16.12m
Bats	88.61		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	37.50%		19.14m
BP2	52.59		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	26.24%		14.72m
AM3	76.24		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	42.09%		13.34m
JWD	123.47		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	40.21%		22.22m
TGM	79.16		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	38.43%		15.25m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      916/11539  [7.94% sold]
Matinee:    142/3372  [4.21% | 3.22% of all tickets sold]
3D:            520/5478  [9.49% | 11.79% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	207	25352	29983	4631	15.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

222

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	121.42		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	50.36%		18.85m
ET	174.56		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		6409	72.26%		18.75m
MoM	36.88		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	21.93%		13.28m
L&T	55.97		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	27.30%		16.23m
Bats	89.37		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	39.39%		19.30m
BP2	53.17		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	27.57%		14.89m
AM3	77.39		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	44.21%		13.54m
JWD	119.20		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	42.23%		21.46m
TGM	77.92		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	40.36%		15.01m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     954/11539  [8.27% sold]
Matinee:    165/3372  [4.89% | 3.56% of all tickets sold]
3D:            565/5478  [10.31% | 12.20% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/27/2023 at 1:06 AM, Porthos said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21451	21905	454	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

454

 

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	249.45		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	11.49%		15.59m
BA	106.57		426	426		0/142	21387/21813	1.95%		4494	10.10%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        50/5794  [0.86% sold]
Matinee:        3/625  [0.48% | 0.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            86/4228  [2.03% | 18.94% of all tickets sold]

---

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***
TLM = 1.74026x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales [14.01m]
TLM = 0.58345x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [8.05m]
TLM = 0.34957x TLK at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales      [9.25m]

NOTE:  All three films have been adjusted upwards by approx 15 percent to reflect the official NATO ATP difference in ticket price between 2019 and 2023.

 

====

 

Right off the bat, gonna mention that as have been noted by others, The Little Mermaid is in this weird place where it's a little too big for most family films but too small for the heavy hitters.  Thus really don't have great comps for this.

 

I've laid out all the reasons why I don't like comping films from before COVID, but I threw them in anyway.  FOR NOW I'm using the official ATP adjustment for 2019->2023 from NATO (14.956% hike) because, well, I really don't have any better.  And, frankly, it's an extremely unofficial comp so I don't want to waste too much time/brain power thinking about it.

 

As for sales?  Good enough, but I am a tiny bit concerned about how it was concentrated at a few theaters.  But it is a month out, and this is still a family film, so far too soon to make any sort of judgment.

 

Running super later so other thoughts will have to wait.   If anyone wants any other comps, lemme know and I'll see if I can didg something up when I have the time.

 

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	21462	22006	544	2.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	90

 

Day Two Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	251.85		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	13.77%		15.74m
BA	108.37		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	12.11%		8.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:          72/5794  [1.24% sold]
Matinee:          7/625  [1.12% | 1.29% of all tickets sold]
3D:            106/4329  [2.45% | 19.49% of all tickets sold]

---

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***
TLM = 1.19554x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales [9.62m]
TLM = 0.53846x TS4 at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales      [7.43m]
TLM = 0.34231x TLK at the same sources of tracking after two days of sales       [9.05m]

NOTE:  All three films have been adjusted upwards by approx 15 percent to reflect the official NATO ATP difference in ticket price between 2019 and 2023.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Porthos

[el sid]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Margaret MTC1 Previews - 6734/125291 82308.10 1144 shows

 

I tracked this thinking this will be a mini breakout based on @Shawn predictions. may be this is doing badly in the coasts and doing better in heartland or something? I am not sure how wide the early shows were but its going to struggle to hit even 500K in previews today. Based on sales seen today and friday sales, I am not seeing double digits OW.  

I can only report from my theaters and Margaret had the best presales in California, by far. But maybe interested moviegoers in the heartland noticed that they don't have to buy tickets early because all shows are almost empty? Or there's just no interest.