The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Time for a Little Mermaid Update? Before I dive in, just want to make something clear that perhaps I failed to do before: the process I use is mostly title blind, in that it is based almost exclusively on the trends in ticket sales, and I'm largely trying to avoid incorporating my own personal or even industry tracking expectations into the results; not determining how the data could/would arrive at an expected outcome. That may generate a forecast range and mid-point that is much higher or lower than the general consensus, but is very much supported by the data, even if I think its reasonable to expect the actual outcome to trend much closer to the high or low side of the range. However, the data set being used is limited, making it difficult to truly know what is a repeatable high or low end result vs true outlier exception, and in order to keep the width of the range limited and useful - particularly before T-7 in the sales cycle - somewhat subjective choices have to be made on the upper, lower, and midpoint expected outcomes

If you are unsure what all of that means, then please feel free to ignore what follows, because it will be open to misinterpretation

 

With that mouthful of caveats out of the way, what is does the sales data look like at T-10? Really freakin good - can certainly make a case that the Memorial Day weekend record set last year by TGM may be in jeopardy. We're still flying a bit blind with lack of a good comp, but the early sales volume is high enough that even if it were to pace a little below the JW4/BA/Scream VI grouping from this point, still likely gets to double digits for Thursday ... and the pace over the last week is slightly above that range, tracking closer to Sonic 2. Now as @Porthos has mentioned, there has been a marketing push over that period, so that very well may be inflated, but even Scream VI pace from here gets you to ~$12M (after adjusting the PSM)

 

As for the IM, the 10x range of Minions/Lightyear/Ghostbusters is still in play, and the Thu/Fri/Sat ratio of sales from latest Drafthouse updates are off the charts for releases of this size, well ahead of even Avatar 2, which had a 7.88x (and 5.74x by Sat). However, last MTC1 Friday count isn't as glowing, but pacing better than Thursday, so will have to see how that shakes out as release approaches. Still in the ~8-10x+ range, tentatively

 

Enough data to bump up the Thursday range somewhat, but unfortunately not enough clarity on trajectory yet to really start narrowing it down. Personally, based on the soft tracking numbers like Quorum and what Shawn & Co use, I again think this display overestimates the potential outcome, but also can't ignore the sales data in hand, until (if?) we start to see it level off a bit and find the groove it will follow to the finish

Thursday Forecast: $10-$16M

OW 3-day Forecast: $95-$130M

 

Mermaid 3-Day OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$10.0	$11.0	$12.0	$13.0	$14.0	$15.0	$16.0	$17.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	8.00	$72.0	$80.0	$88.0	$96.0	$104.0	$112.0	$120.0	$128.0	$136.0
	8.31	$74.8	$83.1	$91.4	$99.8	$108.1	$116.4	$124.7	$133.0	$141.3
	8.63	$77.6	$86.3	$94.9	$103.5	$112.1	$120.8	$129.4	$138.0	$146.6
	8.94	$80.4	$89.4	$98.3	$107.3	$116.2	$125.1	$134.1	$143.0	$151.9
	9.25	$83.3	$92.5	$101.8	$111.0	$120.3	$129.5	$138.8	$148.0	$157.3
	9.56	$86.1	$95.6	$105.2	$114.8	$124.3	$133.9	$143.4	$153.0	$162.6
	9.88	$88.9	$98.8	$108.6	$118.5	$128.4	$138.3	$148.1	$158.0	$167.9
	10.19	$91.7	$101.9	$112.1	$122.3	$132.4	$142.6	$152.8	$163.0	$173.2
	10.50	$94.5	$105.0	$115.5	$126.0	$136.5	$147.0	$157.5	$168.0	$178.5

 

 

 

So so soooooo many posts made overnight.

 

FWIW, I've been mentally pegging TLM at 12-14 for the last couple of days, so this absolutely tracks with my expectations.

 

And, yes, possibly... possibly, even beyond 14m Thur as your chart suggests if this really does break out.

 

====

 

FWIW, I want to see one or two days more of data before really using the "b" word, but at a certain point, the data is the data.  And right now, TLM has all the hallmarks of a breakout waiting to happen.  Doesn't mean it will; just that the data supports the possibility. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

If originals can still succeed on streaming there has to be some sort of angle for them to succeed in theaters too. It's harder, certainly, but there is no way something like Encanto can go on to be the biggest film of the year in streaming and yet have absolutely no way of breaking out in theaters.

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If originals can still succeed on streaming there has to be some sort of angle for them to succeed in theaters too. 

 

I guarantee you that if studios released the most popular made-for-streaming movies into theatres most of them would have tanked.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

If originals can still succeed on streaming there has to be some sort of angle for them to succeed in theaters too. It's harder, certainly, but there is no way something like Encanto can go on to be the biggest film of the year in streaming and yet have absolutely no way of breaking out in theaters.

Also it's not even remotely true, Meg3n was successful in January for example and we've seen original films break out in recent years like Everything, Everywhere All At Once last May. 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah Pixar only need the movie to be really good and they’re fine (considering the Cannes premiere it should be great) 

 

If it didn’t find audience on theaters people will watch it on streaming like Soul, Luca and Red which was all huge in this regard. 
 

It will be sad tho seeing that happening, but i doubt it would devaluate Pixar importance for Disney, not only creatively but also in pushing technological boundaries. 
 

That said, i do think when it come to originals WOM can operate miracles. Give me 35-40M opening and if the movie clicks with it’s audience, it can just leg out to 170-200M.

 

Lightyear bombing imo have more to do with the concept not clicking with audience due to previous expectations and the movie wasn’t good enough to compensate.
 

For Elemental while There’s a lot of competition, the first big animated movie after it is Ninja Turtles 2 months after it’s release, it can thrive in this spam of time if It’s good enough.
 

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[JWR]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

For Elemental while There’s a lot of competition, the first big animated movie after it is Ninja Turtles 2 months after it’s release, it can thrive in this spam of time if It’s good enough.

 

My sentiment as well.

[Boxofficerules]

How’s Boogyman looking?

[YM!]

I think Soul, Luca and Turning Red would've all done well theatrically. At least over 100m domestically each.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Exhibition is not taking any more chances on Disney animations after Lightyear and Strange World bombed. This is the unfortunate reality of what happens when a branded movie bombs. It causes exhibitors to lose faith and giving far less screens to said studio's next movie.

[DC Rich]

On 4/15/2023 at 10:41 PM, XXR Anti-Hero said:

Moderation 

I know I gave a warning less than a week ago about derailing the tracking thread with non-tracking discussions. The next time it happens in mass there's gonna be thread bans and warning points. 

 

 

This seems relevant. Could just be me though.  

[Flamengo81]

12 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

 

 

This seems relevant. Could just be me though.  

I thought the same thing, was just waiting for a mod to come in and stop the discussion 🤣

[AniNate]

I don't think it's drifted that far, tickets did just go on sale today and everyone's just drawing their own narratives from it. I do think if we focus too much on a certain provocative angle things might get out of hand though.

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

 

 

This seems relevant. Could just be me though.  

 

8 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I thought the same thing, was just waiting for a mod to come in and stop the discussion 🤣

 

The Report post link is your friend in these situations. 👍

 

(speaking of which gonna follow my own advice here, presently)

Edited May 16, 2023 by Porthos

[AniNate]

For the record the first screening of Elemental at Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls remains completely open

Edited May 16, 2023 by AniNate

[TheFlatLannister]

Elemental is not looking so good here. It will live or die by WOM as many trackers here expected 

[XXR & Friends]

What’s this? What’s this?!? A forum thread to discuss Elemental that doesn’t bog down the tracking thread with banter and speculation? Well whatda know…..

 

 

[AN9815]

59 minutes ago, YM! said:

I think Soul, Luca and Turning Red would've all done well theatrically. At least over 100m domestically each.

If COVID would not have happened I think Soul would have easily done +$300m DOM in summer 2020. Luca and Turning Red would likely had been +$200m hits as well. 

[Flamengo81]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Report post link is your friend in these situations. 👍

 

(speaking of which gonna follow my own advice here, presently)

To be clear, I just thought the mods would eventually intervene since it was an extended discussion, not exactly that I wanted them to do.

[misterpepp]

Asteroid City tix on sale May 24

[Tinalera]

Fast X

Thurs May 18 and Fri May 19 (T-3)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

Vancouve	Thurs	4	28	364	5298	5662	0.0642
	Fri	4	25	527	4866	5393	0.0977
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	31	288	4789	5077	0.0567
	Fri	4	38	580	5017	5597	0.1036

 

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken feb 12)

Vancouver BC and Calgary AB

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	29	1414	4448	5862	0.2412
	Fri	3	25	1325	3552	4877	0.2716

 

 

Calgary	# theatre	#show	Seats       Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	30	735	5992	6327	0.1161
Fri	4	30	640	5935	6575	0.0973

 

 

GOTG 3

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	26	1157	4192	5349	0.2163
	Fri	4	26	1161	2879	4040	0.2873
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	26	656	3097	3753	0.1747
	Fri	4	19	744	3592	4336	0.1715

 

 

Total Seat Availability

 

	V T	V F	C T	C F
Fast X	5662	5393	5077	5597
Antman	5862	4877	6327	6575
diff	-200	516	-1250	-978
Fast X	5662	5393	5077	5597
GOTG 3	5349	4040	3753	4336
diff	313	1353	1324	1261