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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted (edited)

Still a decent bit of runway to change course but the last week of Flash sales looks to me like indicating the same range as d1 — 11-14ish

Edited by Legions of the Galaxy
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Ohana Sleeper Hit

Ohana

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

Why are you choosing to compare to The Batman, a character who has a massive fanbase including Pattinson fans, and not Black Adam and Shazam?

 


Maybe because the movie has 2 Batmans in it.

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YSLDC Sleeper Hit

YSLDC

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Ohana said:


Maybe because the movie has 2 Batmans in it.

 

Oh so you think Flash will open to half of The Batman? Because that's what pre-sales are saying.

 

Civil War had The Avengers and Spider-Man. It didn't make it an Avengers level movie

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted

The Boogeyman is gonna mega bomb, isn't it?

 

You all wasting time with these big dumb blockbusters and I just want to know more about the small things in life like The Boogeyman and No Hard Feelings.

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Ohana Sleeper Hit

Ohana

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

Oh so you think Flash will open to half of The Batman? Because that's what pre-sales are saying.

 

Civil War had The Avengers and Spider-Man. It didn't make it an Avengers level movie


Personally I think it will open with 100M+
Wonder Woman was tracking at 65M 3 weeks before the movie was out 
and had 11M thursday preview which led to a 103M OW. 
I believe The Flash will do more than 11M.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

Oh so you think Flash will open to half of The Batman? Because that's what pre-sales are saying.

 

Civil War had The Avengers and Spider-Man. It didn't make it an Avengers level movie

 

I'm not sure what point you're making, as Civil War opened to almost what Age of Ultron made its opening weekend the year earlier. From a tracking perspective, it absolutely would have been used as one of the main comparisons.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ohana said:


Personally I think it will open with 100M+
Wonder Woman was tracking at 65M 3 weeks before the movie was out 
and had 11M thursday preview which led to a 103M OW. 
I believe The Flash will do more than 11M.

Flash likely needs more like 17 or atleast 16 for 100M+, which...it isn't really pacing towards, but perhaps pace will get better when spiderverse is out of the way

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Boxofficerules Box Office Gold

Boxofficerules

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Boogeyman is gonna mega bomb, isn't it?

 

You all wasting time with these big dumb blockbusters and I just want to know more about the small things in life like The Boogeyman and No Hard Feelings.

Is it true The Boogeyman cost $40 million?

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

Posted
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8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Flash likely needs more like 17 or atleast 16 for 100M+, which...it isn't really pacing towards, but perhaps pace will get better when spiderverse is out of the way

I think the Sunday hold will be very strong given it's Father's Day and many are off the following Monday for Juneteenth. I think it could get there with 14M~ Thursday. Friday proper will be inflated too as we're into summer days by 6/16.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think the Sunday hold will be very strong given it's Father's Day and many are off the following Monday for Juneteenth. I think it could get there with 14M~ Thursday. Friday proper will be inflated too as we're into summer days by 6/16.

7.2x seems way too high for a summer cbm imho, especially one that has a batman in it, personally, and what little fri-sun sales were posted didn't really seem particularly spectacular compared to thursday either at the moment

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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TMobile deal is up and my 2 Atom Cinemarks do not yet have final sets...these 2 things do not go together:)...

 

PS - Remember codes can be used through Sunday, so the sales will go up today, but will keep backloading the weekend all week...

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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31 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it true The Boogeyman cost $40 million?

To my knowledge yes, but I guess we will know for sure over the weekend.

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YSLDC Sleeper Hit

YSLDC

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Ohana said:


Personally I think it will open with 100M+
Wonder Woman was tracking at 65M 3 weeks before the movie was out 
and had 11M thursday preview which led to a 103M OW. 
I believe The Flash will do more than 11M.

 

I agree. Old audiences wanting to see Keaton/Reeve can become what the female demo was for Wonder Woman.

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it true The Boogeyman cost $40 million?

 

8 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Why would they spend that amount on a streaming movie? Evil Dead Rise and Smile both look like they cost much more to

make.


I think that’s the pre tax-credit number someone got from a location website. But yeh we’ll find out tomorrow probably.  

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YSLDC Sleeper Hit

YSLDC

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

What is Flash’s numbers in comparison to Top Gun Maverick?

 

Only comp I can find is Porthos.

 

17 days before release,

 

Top Gun sold 223 tickets for a total of 3,387 tickets

 

vs

 

Flash 72 tickets sold for a total of 1,082. 

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

Only comp I can find is Porthos.

 

17 days before release,

 

Top Gun sold 223 tickets for a total of 3,387 tickets

 

vs

 

Flash 72 tickets sold for a total of 1,082. 

TGM overindexed huge in sancto iirc.

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saying Flash will get huge walk ups that will make up for weaker presales seems like wishful thinking. Indy 5 is a better example of a film that should get huge walk ups. Yet people seem to have written that one off from presales 

Edited by John Marston
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Ohana Sleeper Hit

Ohana

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Saying Flash will get huge walk ups that will make up for weaker presales seems like wishful thinking. Indy 5 is a better example of a film that should get huge walk ups. Yet people seem to have written that one off from presales 


But the reactions for Indy 5 were mixed to negative unlike The Flash.

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