The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@M37

 

Also, frankly when it comes right down to it, I don't want to succumb to the dangers of "herding" (which is something I try to fight).  If Sacto is an outlier, as it very likely is, so be it.

 

Accuracy matters, yes. But outliers are useful pieces of info too.  Plus it'll be important in the future for SV3/similar movies.

I understand, but the list of bigger films that skew pretty heavily to an Hispanic audience (which is the market variation I’m expecting here, and for which Sacto tends to under-index) is fairly small.  Basically Mario (which was OD/you didn’t track), Minions and Fast X

 

And tbh, I think even your Fast X & Minions comps will undershoot a bit 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I understand, but the list of bigger films that skew pretty heavily to an Hispanic audience (which is the market variation I’m expecting here, and for which Sacto tends to under-index) is fairly small.  Basically Mario (which was OD/you didn’t track), Minions and Fast X

 

And tbh, I think even your Fast X & Minions comps will undershoot a bit 

 

Are you thinking 40/30/12/18 (Hispanic, Caucasian, Black, Asian)?  

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

896

3193

28.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

667

2353

28.35%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4654	972	27638	16.84%	13	164

 

0.904	Guardians 3 T-1	15.82M
0.815	Ant-Man 3 T-1	14.26M
0.514	Thor L&T T-1	14.90M
0.664	Batman T-1	14.35M
1.627	Eternals T-1	15.46M

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1142

3198

35.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

902

2344

38.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6621	1967	27638	23.96%	13	164

 

0.971	Guardians 3 T-0	16.99M
0.921	Ant-Man 3 T-0	16.12M
2.276	Black Adam T-0	17.30M
0.541	Thor L&T T-0	15.69M
0.926	JW Dominion T-0	16.66M
0.764	Batman T-0	16.51M
1.487	Eternals T-0	14.13M

 

Denver seems to be underindexing. There is a major factor being the first NBA Finals that the city has seen is starting tonight. I also wanna point out that Regal is underindexing here, and while that's a small portion of my tracking here, it'll affect somewhere like Sacramento more. It's no surprise given the Atom tickets deal, but it is something to consider. I'll go with 18M.

[DAJK]

It’s not just the US guys. Spiderverse is selling like crazy in Canada too, especially west coast presales.

 

Honestly wouldn’t be shocked at all if this thing did 18-20M+ previews. This really is Gen Z’s Incredibles 2 I’m starting to think.

[keysersoze123]

Sac, Den etc we dont capture final walkups. This movie will do great with walkups. 

@ZackM said he will do his usual final day coverage for Spiderverse. It should be fun to track walkups. 

[el sid]

The Boogeyman had today for today 173 sold tickets with showtimes in 7 theaters.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Smile (2M from previews) had 467 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164,
M3gan (2.75M) had 782,
Barbarian (850k) had 289
and The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets.

Still ca. 600k-800k from previews in my theaters.

And for Friday it had today 193 sold tickets (again in 7 theaters). At least that's a good Thursday-Friday ratio.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Smile (22.6M OW) had 549 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 262,
M3gan (30.4M) had 752,
Barbarian (10M) had 249,
The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets
and Old (16.9M) had 500 sold tickets.

Walk-ups should be ok so my guess would be that it stays just below 10M OW.

[keysersoze123]

Oppenheimer Previews MTC1 - 6158/116302 134299.50 403 shows

 

They did add few more shows compared to morning but so far its minimal until next week when they open it all. Plus opening along side Barbie means there will be scramble for screens as we are already seeing. 

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

It’s not just the US guys. Spiderverse is selling like crazy in Canada too, especially west coast presales.

 

Honestly wouldn’t be shocked at all if this thing did 18-20M+ previews. This really is Gen Z’s Incredibles 2 I’m starting to think.

 

I'm in downtown Montreal right now, so I've been peaking at the sales at the big theatre downtown.

 

The early evening show has been down to final couple of rows all week, but the 3:40pm had decent capacity (only on one screen, but its IMAX).

 

I checked sales 45 minutes before showtime and it was at 144 tickets sold. Sales finished at 228. Tickets were being sold 15 minutes past posted showtime. I don't know this market well enough, but that's a crazy level of late walk-up business by any standard.

 

There's an energy for this film that we haven't seen too much of. I feel this is a movie that people are excited to see, but, may underestimate ticket availability. I think people are probably assuming that there will be seats available. I wouldn't be surprised that the late shows do really well as people show up and have to grab the later time.

[keysersoze123]

I wish this thread had lasted this day at least. New thread in the middle of a big preview day would be weird. @Shawn

[filmlover]

Showtimes for No Hard Feelings are starting to appear, begins at 4 that Thursday.

[XXR & Friends]

We all know ATSV previews will come in at 17.5, so there’s no need hand ringing about it. 
 

[Sckathian]

This is a good example of a concept that was a big sell but sold it BIG. Kind of amazing how its performing. If it does as well as its tracking then I think theres an argument for more non-live action CBMs. Helps this film has a really amazing cast which mixes so brilliantly with its art. I don't think I've seen an animated film which feels so 'live' outside that first film.

[ringedmortality]

46 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This really is Gen Z’s Incredibles 2 I’m starting to think

 

Incredibles 2 is Gen Z's Incredible's 2. Gen Z are 00s kids.

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sac, Den etc we dont capture final walkups. This movie will do great with walkups. 

@ZackM said he will do his usual final day coverage for Spiderverse. It should be fun to track walkups. 

 

Noting that Miami and Denver walkups might be terrible...although is game 1 in a possible slam dunk series gonna be a huge neg on them?

[Shawn Robbins]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish this thread had lasted this day at least. New thread in the middle of a big preview day would be weird. @Shawn

Was already going to wait until after preview numbers are out Friday morning.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Incredibles 2 is Gen Z's Incredible's 2. Gen Z are 00s kids.

The official 'Gen Z' age range is too big tbh. As a 98 birth, I don't have much of anything in common with how kids born in 08 grew up.

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The official 'Gen Z' age range is too big tbh. As a 98 birth, I don't have much of anything in common with how kids born in 08 grew up.

 

That's true of all generations. How many Xillennials feel like they have a lot in common with young millennials. I was born iyn 99 so we're both Zillennials. Kind of in-between.

 

Generation stuff is nonsense anyway, especially since Boomers are the only ones with an official birth year range from the government.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boogeyman	T-0	Jax	5	11	18	41	1,116	3.67%
		Phx	7	19	31	69	1,602	4.31%
		Ral	7	14	39	90	1,122	8.02%
	Total		19	44	88	200	3,840	5.21%
Spiderverse 2	T-0	Jax	6	88	731	2,472	12,824	19.28%
		Phx	7	92	794	2,602	14,076	18.49%
		Ral	8	88	698	2,175	10,529	20.66%
	Total		21	268	2,223	7,249	37,429	19.37%

 

Huge day for SV2, and a solid day for Boogeyman.  Show counts have picked up with most theaters adding one or two additional screens.  Hopefully they are catching on and allocating space for what looks to be the next big hit.

 

Spider-verse 2 T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 Total - 3.243x (20.27m)

 - Lightyear - 4.207x (20.62m)

 - Shazam 2 - 5.77x (19.61m)

 - Ghostbusters Total - 3.89x (17.5m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .89x (15.57m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.635x (21.42m)

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - .67x (21.25m)

 

Two-day increase

Spider-verse - +44.38%

Sonic 2 - +38.85%

Lightyear - +47.01%

Shazam 2 - +43.12%

Space Jam - +66.95% (OD so shows were closer to starting)

Ghostbusters - +39.12%

Ant-Man  3 - +21.64%

 

Crazy how one day can have such an impact.  (Probably would have been predicting higher if I had started tracking earlier and seen the growth rate).  I could definitely see this hitting 20m now and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets up to 20.5m.  Official projection for now is 20.25m.

 

Boogeyman + EA T-0 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 984x (1.18m)

 - M3GAN - .398x (1.095m)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.748x (1.154m)

 - The Invitation - 1.299x (1.007m)

 

Not too much change here; it's keeping up with the comps and should be able to eclipse the 1m mark.  I'll go with 1.1m for now. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spiderverse 2	1-Hr	Jax	6	89	930	3,402	13,029	26.11%
		Phx	7	92	516	3,118	14,076	22.15%
		Ral	8	94	610	2,785	10,935	25.47%
	Total		21	275	2,056	9,305	38,040	24.46%

 

SV2 T-1 hour comps

 - Lightyear - 3.747x (18.36m)

 - Ghostbusters - 3.9x (16.2m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.074x (22.3m)

 - Ant-man 3 - .966x (16.91m)

All animated movies - 22.55m

All CBM movies - 16.84m

All PG movies - 19.95m

All 2pm previews - 17.32m

All movies - 19.81m

 

Final day didn't quite live up to yesterday's boom, but still a very impressive run for Spider-Verse!  There's a pretty wide range in the comps so it's tough to offer up a prediction.  That being said, the whole point of tracking is to narrow the range down as small as possible.  As much as I want to see this hit 20m, I think a more realistic number, and my final prediction, would be around 18m. 

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

That relatively low theater count for Transformers leads me to believe they're expecting an underperformance.

Aren't we all? 🤪

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Was already going to wait until after preview numbers are out Friday morning.

If this is feasible behind the scenes (ie being able to mass cut/paste/move rather than having to individually move comments), can I suggest that the new thread start be (essentially) backdated to early April, starting somewhere around page 800 from this current thread? There's a ~2 day period of overlap between when GOTG3 went on sale just before Mario was about to open, and the only other active track of consequence around that time was Fast X [but with its like 80 day sales window, nothing to do about that].

 

It would probably be better to have that semi-clean break as the starting point, rather than a new page 1 being in the middle of what will be around 20-25 active [3-5 movies x 4-6 trackers] - and therefore nested back into old thread - tracking comments for films currently on sale [again, only if this is doable without a ton of extra work]