The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Oppenheimer over Transformers OW club

Hold on, you’re actually on to something

[Dragoncaine]

35 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Oppenheimer over Transformers OW club

You just cooked

[keysersoze123]

FYI oppenheimer even for Imax is only selected in very limited screens and that too only for shows starting 7PM. Hopefully they only have previews starting at 7PM but rest of them will start presales on 8th. We will know if there is demand outside the big 70mm Imax and any other PLF Oppenheimer will get. 

[MrPink]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dunkirk was niche as a movie can be domestic. it still was leggier than most movies domestic. so Nolan movies are definitely nothing like SH movies. We have never tracked final week presales for a Nolan movie in a fine grained manner. So let us figure out how a Nolan movie does in final week. This has everything going for it despite being a '3 hour drama". Knowing Nolan's style it wont be long drawn scenes. I am expecting him to move across timelines and quick cuts. This is why Blunt said its a thriller disguised as a biography. 

 

The feeling I have is that Oppenheimer is just as niche. But don't get me wrong, I do think it'll have good legs, so long as the movie is good. I just think it'll be really pre-sale heavy for previews and opening day due to the PLF skew and Nolan's brand.

 

I would love for it to be successful obviously but I don't want to get ahead of ourselves here knowing that Nolan definitely has a very dedicated fanbase that would come out and pre-order tickets early (which includes me)

Edited June 4, 2023 by MrPink

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI oppenheimer even for Imax is only selected in very limited screens and that too only for shows starting 7PM. Hopefully they only have previews starting at 7PM but rest of them will start presales on 8th. We will know if there is demand outside the big 70mm Imax and any other PLF Oppenheimer will get. 

My local AMCs are starting their IMAX showtimes of Oppenheimer at 5 PM on July 20, then another at 9. Pretty sure they are LieMax, but still I doubt that there'd be a different embargo time for 70 mm showings.

 

Some Regals and the Cinemark here are also have PLF showtimes on the 20th before 7 PM.

[keysersoze123]

31 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

My local AMCs are starting their IMAX showtimes of Oppenheimer at 5 PM on July 20, then another at 9. Pretty sure they are LieMax, but still I doubt that there'd be a different embargo time for 70 mm showings.

 

Some Regals and the Cinemark here are also have PLF showtimes on the 20th before 7 PM.

You are right. At my AMC also they are starting at 5PM and 2 shows at 5 and 9. 

[M37]

Hold up … so knowing Opp was 3 hours long, Universal went with a 5pm preview start time, so shows are 5p and 9p for the PLF screens? Why in world would they not do 4p (& 8p) or even like 2p (plus 6 & 10) 

[charlie Jatinder]

MI7 14 JUN tix. 2PM TUE previews. Wonder if previews do discount tix.

[charlie Jatinder]

Oppenheimer MiniTC2

 

THU - 528/5747 (16 showings) $8411
FRI - 463/11952 (34 showings) $7554

2 IMAX shows make 75% tix sold on THU & 4 IMAX shows 78%. Low sales for other PLFs.

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderverse MTC1 Sat PS Final - 300128/1241146 4612697.48 7044 shows

 

Yesterday it finished at 551K and so today expecting 600K+. 

Spiderverse MTC1 Sun PS -  254676/1175301 3824451.72 6652 shows

 

Not bad at all. I am expecting another strong day. Saturday finished at 638.6K. 

[Cooper Legion]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderverse MTC1 Sun PS -  254676/1175301 3824451.72 6652 shows

 

Not bad at all. I am expecting another strong day. Saturday finished at 638.6K. 

Looks like teens drop, about as expected but still good.

[Porthos]

On 6/3/2023 at 2:42 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-6]

1357/19437 [6.98% sold] [+98 tickets]

0.32542x the sales of JWD at T-6                 [5.86m]

0.89218x the sales of Black Adam at T-6      [6.78m]

0.71496x the sales of Wick 4 at T-6              [6.36m]

0.86931x the sales of Fast X at T-6               [6.52m]

 

===

Removed the TGM and Shazam 2 comps as even on Quick and Dirty's I have my standards, and they're just not providing good info at the moment.

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-5]

1501/19437 [7.72% sold] [+144 tickets]

0.32496x the sales of JWD at T-5                 [5.85m]

0.89880x the sales of Black Adam at T-5      [6.83m]

0.72723x the sales of Wick 4 at T-5              [6.47m]

0.91804x the sales of Fast X at T-5               [6.89m]

Edited June 5, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18774	19527	753	3.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

24

 

T-27 Comps:

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.39		22	1589		0/171	22195/23784	6.68%		10966	6.87%		8.53m
FX	105.31		4	715		0/182	26985/27700	2.58%		8363	9.00%		7.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     132/6084  [2.17% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 7.30% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18747	19527	780	3.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	47.85		41	1630		0/171	22154/23784	6.85%		10966	7.11%		8.61m
FX	107.88		8	723		0/182	26977/27700	2.61%		8363	9.33%		8.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     134/6084  [2.20% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 7.05% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23867	25148	1281	5.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.22		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	10.90%		6.53m
BA	131.38		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	28.50%		9.99m
Wick 4	104.06		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	23.51%		9.26m
AtSV	61.91		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	13.15%		10.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     203/5286  [3.84% sold]
Matinee:    20/2140  [0.93% | 1.56% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

We have an AtSV comp now!!!!

 

...

 

And it's pretty similar to the other two comps I've already been using.  Meh.

 

Also decided it's time to bring back The Batman comp.  Not coz it's at all accurate (it isn't), but more for pace purposes.  I'll check out what other trackers are using and see which ones I like and possibly add them in the coming days.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23838	25148	1310	5.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	30.20		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	11.14%		6.52m
BA	127.18		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	29.15%		9.67m
Shazam 2	297.73		11	440		0/109	17259/17699	2.49%		1663	78.77%		10.12m
Wick 4	102.02		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	24.05%		9.08m
AtSV	60.82		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	13.44%		10.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     218/5286  [4.12% sold]
Matinee:    22/2140  [1.03% | 1.68% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Looked over some of the comps that were out there, but felt they were unsuitable for the Sacto market for one reason or another.  Then I thought to myself, instead of using something like GOTG3 or even Eternals, as there really does seem to be a difference between how (live-action) MCU and DC films play here why not go in a different direction?  So I had the bright idea of looking at Shazam 2 as something of a counterbalance to The Batman, which is still a pretty terrible comp right now.

 

...

 

Eep!

 

...

 

Okay, Shazam 2 is a pretty rotten comp about ten different ways from Sunday (not the least of which the baggage surrounding it just by mentioning it in the first place).  But... Have to admit I was surprised at how low of a current comp it spat out.  Mind, Shazam 2 was in pre-sales for five more days at this point in time,  so that actually matters at this level of sales.  And I fully expect The Flash to have a strong ramp up at the end.

 

Still... Is what it is.

[Porthos]

On 6/2/2023 at 1:31 AM, Porthos said:

I Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-49]

179/3488 [5.13% sold] (16 showtimes)

 

0.45431x Dune on Day 1                                   [2.32m]

3.14035x Nope on Day 1                                   [20.10m]

0.64621x No Time to Die on Day 1                   [4.01m]*

0.24895x Jurassic World Dominion on Day 1  [4.48m]

* [EA Showtimes for NTTD not recorded until Day 3— no more than 81 seats sold at EA showings]

 

===

 

Okay, Nope is clearly not a good comp on Day 1.  Aside from that?
 

 

FWIW, nearly half the tickets sold (85/179) were at the local True IMAX indie theater.

 

Still Don't Even Fucking Know - Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-47]

267/4146 [6.44% sold] (18 showtimes) [+40 tickets]

 

0.49171x Dune on Day 3                                    [2.51m]

0.54379x No Time to Die on Day 3                   [3.37m] (now includes all EA showings)

0.25847x Jurassic World Dominion on Day 3  [4.65m]

 

(once again, about half the sales today were at the indie one screen TrueIMAX theater)

[Starphanluke]

Took a peek at Flash sales near me, and at almost all the theaters around the city, Thursday previews look solid but the rest of the weekend looks... dire. 

 

Indy sales actually seem fine for being so far off. I'm still confused why they started sales so early.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Took a peek at Flash sales near me, and at almost all the theaters around the city, Thursday previews look solid but the rest of the weekend looks... dire. 

 

Indy sales actually seem fine for being so far off. I'm still confused why they started sales so early.

 

Badly misjudged what a certain class of critics would think of it/trying to build a month and a half worth of buzz.

 

Then again, Disney and Cannes have had a... curious relationship over the decades (and it's not recent either as we can go all the way back to POTC4) so it's not the first time something like this has happened.

 

Still, even outside that huge misfire there really was little reason to have such a long pre-sale window and they should have just ignored the siren song of Cannes altogether.  A pre-sale window of something like NTTD (21 days) or TGM (24 days) would have been much much better.

[vafrow]

On 6/1/2023 at 4:32 AM, vafrow said:

Transformers Rise of the Beasts, T-8

Milton, Ontario

 

I'm now close enough to release date to have at least one decent comp on this. It's currently 67% ahead of Fast X for $12.5M. A small sample with a recent surge doesn't mean too much, but I'll try and report back in a few days to see how it holds. Fast X actually saw steady performance over the final week. We'll see if Transformers can manage the same.

 

Beasts finally saw a small surge last night after being stagnant over the past week.

 

Milton, Ontario T-5 Rise of the Beasts update

 

This comparison has only gotten worse as Fast X sales picked up by this point, where Rise of the Beasts has stayed flat for the last few days.

 

T:ROTB is at 0.588x Fast X for a $4.4M opening.

 

Comparison is worse using Across the Spiderverse, which is at 0.162x for $2.8M.

 

 

[vafrow]

Milton, Ontario Flash T-12

 

With Across the Spiderverse totals in, it gives me a comp for Flash. Not the greatest, but it's something.

 

Flash is at 0.267X of S:ATS for $4.6M. 

 

Not great, but, looking around my area, the theatres with better and more premium screens are doing a lot better. This is likely drawing people to the better formats at this stage.

[rehpyc]

6 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

MI7 14 JUN tix. 2PM TUE previews. Wonder if previews do discount tix.

Typically not for Wed. release previews. A theater may accidentally price things wrong, but that won't be the norm.