The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Flash	T-7	Jax	6	64	36	486	10,050	4.84%
		Phx	6	48	35	581	8,749	6.64%
		Ral	8	63	26	431	8,688	4.96%
	Total		20	175	97	1,498	27,487	5.45%

 

Flash T-7 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.281x (11.28m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.02x (10.27m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.6x (10.77m)

 - F9 - 1.552x (11.02m)

 - Eternals - .722x (6.86m)

 - Black Adam - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-6	Jax	5	12	7	7	966	0.72%
		Phx	6	16	13	13	1,707	0.76%
		Ral	6	14	10	10	802	1.25%
	Total		17	42	30	30	3,475	0.86%
Blackening (EA)	T-5	Jax	4	4	44	44	357	12.32%
		Phx	3	3	58	58	210	27.62%
		Ral	6	6	20	20	655	3.05%
	Total		13	13	122	122	1,222	9.98%
Elemental	T-6	Jax	5	40	50	50	5,234	0.96%
		Phx	6	42	92	92	5,156	1.78%
		Ral	8	39	76	76	4,743	1.60%
	Total		19	121	218	218	15,133	1.44%
Flash	T-6	Jax	6	64	34	520	10,050	5.17%
		Phx	6	48	36	617	8,749	7.05%
		Ral	8	63	33	464	8,688	5.34%
	Total		20	175	103	1,601	27,487	5.82%

 

Flash T-6 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.232x (10.85m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.09x (10.51m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.536x (10.91m)

 - Eternals - .725x (6.89m)

 - Black Adam - 1.34x (10.16m)

 

Looking like in the 10.5m to 11m range.

 

Blackening T-6 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.034x (1.24m)

 - Men - 1.111x (470k)

 - Firestarter - .909x (341k)

 - Night House - 2.143x (557k)

 

Blackening + EA T-6 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .641x (1.92m)

 - Smile + EA - .707x (1.41m)

 

Will have a boost for the holiday Monday.  EA is selling really well so maybe this one surprises?

 

Elemental T-6 comps

 - Lightyear - .443x (2.17m)

 - Strange World - 9.083x (7.27m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 2.659x (3.99m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.45x (2.75m)

 

Pretty big range here but I'm currently thinking around 3m previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

EA is selling really well so maybe this one surprises?

I had same thing happen. Very low sales but suddenly two days ago EA got 250 seats sold. Nothing after that

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, across the Jat verse said:

I had same thing happen. Very low sales but suddenly two days ago EA got 250 seats sold. Nothing after that

Hmm that's interesting.  Will be something to monitor.  Was there maybe a deal a couple days ago?

[M37]

11 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

If Transformer can pull off some nice late-surprise, there shouldn't have any denial for Flash to replicate that. I remember even Shazam 2 had some late come back and finish above 30m when tracking once indicated slightly above 20m OW.

Yes, we should always remain open to the possibility that a film trends towards a high or low end outlier result. With that said, would absolutely not put any hopes into a Transformers like finish for Flash

 

The reality is that TF was pacing ahead of comps at the T-7 checkpoint, and while I personally chalked that to an EA show effect (aka overlooked it), it not only continued but improved over the final week. Flash on the other hand, is now pacing below the BA/ATSV range - even with an early review release - so an improvement might only get it back to or slightly ahead of those comps, not blowing past them like TF did

 

Hopefully @ZackM drops a T-7 update for Flash, but I expect it fall below the 70K benchmark I had set before, making it an uphill climb from there just to get to $11M+ for previews, with no review drop catalyst coming in the final week  

 

 

[M37]

27 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I had same thing happen. Very low sales but suddenly two days ago EA got 250 seats sold. Nothing after that

The film's twitter account had a tweet that went viral 2 days ago, 1.3M views vs like 10K for the rest (if you trust those figures...), so that may have helped drive a burst of sales (CC @katnisscinnaplex)

 

Seems like some interest on this one, but low awareness holding it back, so room to surprise a bit

[excel1]

how flash resales vs transformers? 

[charlie Jatinder]

The difference between Flash & Trans is that, the latter was making gains since three weeks, while Flash is in other direction. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/4/2023 at 10:04 AM, across the Jat verse said:

Oppenheimer MiniTC2

 

THU - 528/5747 (16 showings) $8411
FRI - 463/11952 (34 showings) $7554

2 IMAX shows make 75% tix sold on THU & 4 IMAX shows 78%. Low sales for other PLFs.

Oppenheimer MiniTC2 T-42

 

Previews -  774/24643 (94 showings) $12,173

FRI - 821/40142 (146 showings) $13,406

 

For THU, regular format has sold 22 tix. IMAX up from 396 to 542.

[charlie Jatinder]

Sound of Freedom MiniTC T-25

 

Previews - 752/15427 (104 showings) $7,574

TUE - 1773/16093 (107 showings) $16,561

WED -  465/15801 (106 showings) $4,655
 

FRI - 350/13449 (92 showings) $3,527

SAT - 402/13415 (93 showings) $3,947

We may get like $20-25M 6 days.

Edited June 9, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2023 at 3:07 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Indy 5 MiniTC2 T-24

 

Previews - 1176/52748 (186 showings) $17,097

 

Comps

1.32x Fast X - $9.9M

1.80x Transformers 6 - $14-16M

~0.56x Jurassic World 3 - $10.2M

Indy 5 MiniTC2 T-21

 

Previews - 1252/52748 (186 showings) $18,152
 

Comps

1.30x Fast X - $9.8M

1.63x Transformers 6 - $14.5M

~0.55x Jurassic World 3 - $10M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2023 at 2:56 PM, across the Jat verse said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-10

Previews - 2650/51286 (188 showings) $39,501

Comps
0.64x Spider-Verse 2 - $11.1M
0.99x Eternals - $9.8M (inflation-adjusted)
2.43x Black Adam - $18.2M
4.93x Shazam!! - $16.8M

The Flash MiniTC2 T-7

Previews -  3087/56046 (206 showings) $45,620

Comps
0.57x Spider-Verse 2 - $9.9M
0.96x Eternals - $9.5M (inflation-adjusted)
2.11x Black Adam - $16M
4.90x Shazam!! - $16.5M

[filmlover]

Not surprised about the relatively soft tracking for Indiana Jones tbh. Even before the tepid reviews out of Cannes came in, I was never sure where some of the "this year's Top Gun: Maverick" predictions being thrown around were coming from when it always seemed to have less going for it than Kingdom of the Crystal Skull did when it came out.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Blackening MiniTC2 T-7

 

Early Shows - 293/4458 (27 showings) $3595

Previews - 7/7909 (56 showings) $89
FRI - 19/20326 (144 showings) $234

 

Weird. 

 

Usually I would take Early Shows with Previews, but this is an isolated case.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2023 at 3:03 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Elementals MiniTC2 T-10

 

Previews - 110/33771 (172 showings) $1264

 

Comps

0.70x Puss in Boots - $2.3M

0.16x Minions 2 - $1.7M

 

FRI - 222/65266 (297 showings) $2443

 

Comps

0.32x Minions 2 - $11.2M

Elementals MiniTC2 T-7

 

Previews - 199/32142 (168 showings) $2288

 

Comps

0.97x Puss in Boots - $3.2M

0.20x Minions 2 - $2.2M

Best day of sales so far.

 

FRI - 306/64921 (296 showings) $3450

 

Comps

0.27x Minions 2 - $9.5M (adjusted)

[killbill]

8 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-7

Previews -  3087/56046 (206 showings) $45,620

Comps
0.57x Spider-Verse 2 - $9.9M
0.96x Eternals - $9.5M (inflation-adjusted)
2.11x Black Adam - $16M
4.90x Shazam!! - $16.5M

So about $16M preview for Flash 

[Wotad]

20 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Honestly shocked over the sales from The Flash, was sure that 115M+ was a slam dunk and like 20M + previews was all but certain. Guess I overestimated it big time.

The universe has a bad perception and no good will they need to build it up again, flash seems decent but early stuff about Aquaman 2 is a diaster. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, killbill said:

So about $16M preview for Flash 

No more like 9-10 from minitc2

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

44 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

The difference between Flash & Trans is that, the latter was making gains since three weeks, while Flash is in other direction. 

Also Flash a comic book movie vs Transformers which is more of a general audience franchise.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23414	25148	1734	6.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

74

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	33.46		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	14.75%		7.23m
BA	124.12		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	38.58%		9.43m
Shazam 2	346.80		16	500		0/107	16507/17007	2.94%		1663	104.27%		11.79m
Wick 4	99.43		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	31.83%		8.85m
AtSV	57.25		1285	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	17.80%		9.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     281/5286  [5.32% sold]
Matinee:    37/2140  [1.73% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

Something off with ATSV tickets sold? It cannot be that high for T-7

[killbill]

14 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

No more like 9-10 from minitc2

 

Comps say $16M from the 2 DC movies.