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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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ConnorFilm Indie Sensation

ConnorFilm

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

 

Horrible if all that comes to fruition. The Flash and Indy should be films easily opening around the $100M range. Nostalgia for Indy has crapped out and DC’s brand power is in the trash can if this happens. 

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

yikes,  writer's strike may be hurting awareness with no late night talkshows 


 

 

these  shows average about a million views. They probably don’t have much of a factor at fall. 

Edited by John Marston
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
On 6/10/2023 at 10:15 AM, M37 said:

 

Couple days later, not much has changed - if anything, there are reasons to be a bit pessimistic about the last week acceleration. I would not (yet) say the floor is dropping, but there are definitely some cracks that suggest it might

 

The average here is a bit overstated, being pulled up but a few high end outliers (Philly, plus Denver & Drafthouse vs BA) which have been steadily declining, so realistically more in the $10.5-$11M range than the $11.5M shown

 

KSgcdRF.png

 

Bigger question is about the IM. I maybe kinda sorta forgot to account for Father's Day and Juneteenth in looking at the IM in previous post? But Friday presales do not inspire a lot of confidence, way below the Thursday figures. Generally, DC films tend to be weekend audience friendly (see BA's 8.6x despite a weaker Sun vs Football), plus the double holiday effect on OW Sunday, but we're pretty much fully into summer now, so less of distinction between weekdays/weekends. By pure numbers, 6.5x or below seems plausible, but I personally don't think it will go quite that low

 

The weaker pace over the last week, despite review release, has me lowering the Thursday range a bit, while IM range nudged up a bit. Really should have a better sense of where things are headed by T-4. To keep pace with the BA et all pace grouping, looking for a +25% or so jump for AlphaMTC1, or over 85K sales

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$9.0 $9.4 $9.9 $10.3 $10.8 $11.2 $11.6 $12.1 $12.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
6.25 $56.3 $59.0 $61.7 $64.5 $67.2 $69.9 $72.7 $75.4 $78.1
6.44 $57.9 $60.8 $63.6 $66.4 $69.2 $72.0 $74.8 $77.7 $80.5
6.63 $59.6 $62.5 $65.4 $68.3 $71.2 $74.1 $77.0 $79.9 $82.8
6.81 $61.3 $64.3 $67.3 $70.3 $73.2 $76.2 $79.2 $82.2 $85.2
7.00 $63.0 $66.1 $69.1 $72.2 $75.3 $78.3 $81.4 $84.4 $87.5
7.19 $64.7 $67.8 $71.0 $74.1 $77.3 $80.4 $83.6 $86.7 $89.8
7.38 $66.4 $69.6 $72.8 $76.1 $79.3 $82.5 $85.7 $89.0 $92.2
7.56 $68.1 $71.4 $74.7 $78.0 $81.3 $84.6 $87.9 $91.2 $94.5
7.75 $69.8 $73.1 $76.5 $79.9 $83.3 $86.7 $90.1 $93.5 $96.9

 

Sticking with this range for both, though leaning more towards to the the lower ranges pending more data

Flash T-7 Forecast: $10-$12M preview, $65-$85M OW

Flash T-4 (Ok, 3.5) Update

 

Isn't it ironic that a movie about a guy who can run really fast is having problems with ... pace? Not breaking any news here to anyone paying attention, but the trendline vs comps has not been good, pretty much on a steady downward trajectory across most samples [Drafthouse loves them some DC] since T-10 (would think reviews were on JWD level instead of ~70% RT)

 

0IwSk0Z.png

 

While the raw average shown here is again probably a bit overstated, in that $10M for Thursday is now closer to the mid-point of the expected range than the lower bound, not totally ready to waive the white flag just yet.

 

The one [hopeful?] comp that Flash has been not really been sliding down against is Fast X. Now a big caveat that Fast X had tickets on sale forever, so there was probably less lower hanging fruit to pick off in the T-14 to T-4 time frame, but it did have an above average finish from where pace was looking at this same checkpoint. Now that we're basically in full summer, the baseline walk-up rate could be higher than even ATSV 2 weeks ago. Fast X is still probably not a great comp in terms of market performance/raw values, so it wouldn't hit the $12.5M shown for Orlando (other comps not shown are in similar ~$12M range), but doing just enough to wind up around $11M cannot be ruled out. YET

 

Finally, as far as potential IM, Friday sales still look weak in relation to Thursday, and not gaining much ground; if plays like a traditional CBM, the OW could get ugly, in that sub-$60M is very much in play. Not going to do an updated chart and/or forecast, but every indication is start eying that top left quadrant from the one above ...

 

This was only meant to be a joke!

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Flash T-4 (Ok, 3.5) Update

 

Isn't it ironic that a movie about a guy who can run really fast is having problems with ... pace? Not breaking any news here to anyone paying attention, but the trendline vs comps has not been good, pretty much on a steady downward trajectory across most samples [Drafthouse loves them some DC] since T-10 (would think reviews were on JWD level instead of ~70% RT)

 

0IwSk0Z.png

 

While the raw average shown here is again probably a bit overstated, in that $10M for Thursday is now closer to the mid-point of the expected range than the lower bound, not totally ready to waive the white flag just yet.

 

The one [hopeful?] comp that Flash has been not really been sliding down against is Fast X. Now a big caveat that Fast X had tickets on sale forever, so there was probably less lower hanging fruit to pick off in the T-14 to T-4 time frame, but it did have an above average finish from where pace was looking at this same checkpoint. Now that we're basically in full summer, the baseline walk-up rate could be higher than even ATSV 2 weeks ago. Fast X is still probably not a great comp in terms of market performance/raw values, so it wouldn't hit the $12.5M shown for Orlando (other comps not shown are in similar ~$12M range), but doing just enough to wind up around $11M cannot be ruled out. YET

 

Finally, as far as potential IM, Friday sales still look weak in relation to Thursday, and not gaining much ground; if plays like a traditional CBM, the OW could get ugly, in that sub-$60M is very much in play. Not going to do an updated chart and/or forecast, but every indication is start eying that top left quadrant from the one above ...

 

This was only meant to be a joke!

Love these analysis! Opening below Black Adam was definitely not on my 2023 summer bingo card...Goes to show how great the WB propaganda machine was working 

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AJG Global Phenomenon

AJG

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

 


Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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Posted
2 minutes ago, AJG said:


Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

I know they're big IPs but hard to say animation is dead when it's possible the #1 and #2 movies DOM will be Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across the Spider-Verse.

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AJG Global Phenomenon

AJG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I know they're big IPs but hard to say animation is dead when it's possible the #1 and #2 movies DOM will be Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across the Spider-Verse.


“ORIGINAL animation”

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