The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

BTW, y'all, I have ABSOTIVELY NO IDEA when I am gonna get to the JWD track tonight.  Was planning on quickly knocking it out before Kenobi dropped, but found out a few minutes ago that it's dropping three hours early tonight at 9pm PDT/midnight EDT and I have NO IDEA how long it's gonna take me to come down from a SW High, if this is any good.

 

So, like, fair warning. It might be really late.  Like even later than it has been sometimes lately.  

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Bob's Burgers Harkins T-1

 

Phoenix 4 - 327/1422

California - 199/1946

 

Total - 526

 

Comps

0.34x Sonic 2 - $1.7M

1.65x Downton Abbey - $1.7M

 

Very big difference between Phoenix and California individual comps. Sonic CA suggesting $1.1M while Phoenix suggesting $2.6M. 

At 8PM, 985 sold for The Bob's Burgers in these 8. Not a great increase from sales but fine. Eventually came closer to usual ratios in CA:P4, with CA at 441 vs P4 at 444. 

There are 8 shows left for walk-ins and may reach 1050+. 

 

Comps
2.2x Downton Abbey - $2.23M (But checking other cinemas in chain, the whole chain will come around $1.8M)

0.27x Sonic 2 - $1.35M

0.5x The Lost City - $1.25M (including EA comp because Idk true THU)

2.1x The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - $1.75M

1.29x The Bad Guys - $1.5M {adj for ATP $1.75M)

 

Yeah throwing all my comps there. I think it will be around $1.75M is coming quite repetitively but there are some $1.25-1.3M as well. jackass forever is even worse at $1M, which is very over indexed title in my tracking areas. I think $1.5M may be.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I blame Sacto, personally. 

 

(and Denver to a degree.... I suppose)

I been thinking to have a mean, median number of Sacto, Denver and Philly, since they have different demos and geographical presence. 

 

Ofc none of this is to do with Top Gun results, but in general. Tracking thread did well for this one IMO. So far it's nothing catastrophic and playing along in realms of conceivable possibilities.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Downgraded 😮

 

 

[Ozymandias]

54 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

 

Probably more to do with the strong military theme and lack of trendy subject matter 

 

Look at American Sniper, that movie did really well everywhere in the states and that was was glorifying a soldier who had like 150+ kills and it came out not long after the Iraq withdrawal.  I wouldn't worry about any kind of meaningful anti-war/militarist sentiment hurting this movie after that because it doesn't really exist in the modern American psyche outside a brief moment in 05-08 when Iraq went to shit.  I think Top Gun is gonna have more crossover appeal anyways.  The Republican media machine were wanking themselves off over American Sniper not necessarily because it was a pro-military, but because they saw Chris Kyle as a reflection of their values(God, Guns, Country, etc).  Is Tom Cruise playing that type of character? No.

[titanic2187]

So TGM is basically American sniper all over again. A patriotic pro-military movie with huge star power in the centre, debuting over a holiday weekend with multiple preview showing before its wide release.
 

 

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Downgraded 😮

 

 

flop Gun?

[Borf the Borf]

24 minutes ago, Eric Belcher said:

This feels like the setup to a really good romantic comedy.

Was going with more a 'The Cable Guy' vibe personally

[Alex SciChannel]

8 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Downgraded 😮

 

 

The upper end of the range still hasn't changed.

[ZackM]

Final update until I post final numbers in the morning:

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	15,177	40.1%	68.0%		3:00-3:59	10,478	50.0%	88.2%
4:00-4:59	6,266	25.5%	71.0%		4:00-4:59	6,052	45.8%	157.6%
5:00-5:59	3,383	19.7%	45.5%		5:00-5:59	2,716	25.9%	60.4%
6:00-6:59	17,410	39.4%	120.9%		6:00-6:59	11,114	42.0%	121.2%
7:00-7:59	19,802	41.4%	51.4%		7:00-7:59	15,053	49.6%	62.3%
8:00-8:59	7,042	22.7%	29.7%		8:00-8:59	5,772	31.7%	51.7%
9:00-9:59	9,098	22.3%	72.5%		9:00-9:59	5,629	26.3%	84.8%
10:00-10:59	6,122	20.2%	68.7%		10:00-10:59	3,548	20.5%	76.5%
11:00-11:59	492	6.0%	4.8%		11:00-11:59	223	5.9%	3.8%
12:00+	119	2.4%	10.4%		12:00+	0	0.0%	0.0%
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	4,163	72.8%	123.2%		3:00-3:59	7,778	38.8%	61.2%
4:00-4:59	1,512	44.3%	168.9%		4:00-4:59	4,567	38.4%	87.0%
5:00-5:59	968	36.7%	81.6%		5:00-5:59	2,223	21.5%	57.8%
6:00-6:59	3,910	54.7%	172.9%		6:00-6:59	8,402	36.9%	100.0%
7:00-7:59	4,437	64.0%	71.9%		7:00-7:59	9,626	41.1%	49.4%
8:00-8:59	1,691	42.8%	61.9%		8:00-8:59	4,376	26.7%	38.9%
9:00-9:59	1,608	29.7%	101.1%		9:00-9:59	5,398	26.1%	72.0%
10:00-10:59	902	21.0%	93.5%		10:00-10:59	3,651	20.3%	66.6%
11:00-11:59	87	12.4%	5.0%		11:00-11:59	499	6.8%	6.5%
12:00+	0	0.0%	-		12:00+	127	1.9%	7.8%

[Ronin46]

Just listening to a podcast while at the gym. It was "The Town" on the Ringer with Matt Belloni and he had Scott Mendelson from Forbes on there talking about Box Office.

Scott said Top Gun would do 80 to 110 4 day and 450M WW (yes that includes domestic). Matt tried to not laugh at him to much and said would do 500 /600 world wide etc. Some crap about 2.2 multiplier in there as well. So I guess he is thinking 90 odd leading to 210 total. 

 

I turned it off after that. 

 

Moron.

[keysersoze123]

Bob Burgers Preview MTC1 - 25845/154432 346494.15 1360 shows.

 

Run started around 5PM PST. So thinking 28k finish. ~ 1.4m previews. 

[excel1]

55 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Downgraded 😮

 

 

 

low end fig would still be excellent

[Ryan Reynolds]

so what are we expecting for total previews for Maverick and weekend multiplier ?

[Maverick123]

38 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Just listening to a podcast while at the gym. It was "The Town" on the Ringer with Matt Belloni and he had Scott Mendelson from Forbes on there talking about Box Office.

Scott said Top Gun would do 80 to 110 4 day and 450M WW (yes that includes domestic). Matt tried to not laugh at him to much and said would do 500 /600 world wide etc. Some crap about 2.2 multiplier in there as well. So I guess he is thinking 90 odd leading to 210 total. 

 

I turned it off after that. 

 

Moron.

Scott’s lost the plot these days. From predicting a $125m domestic finish just a couple of weeks back to ending his most recent post saying that this movie’s box office will not make Cruise an A+ box office star again. If Cruise, with a $100m domestic start for his 2nd franchise, at a time when even the biggest non-CBM or Jurassic World movies are opening at best to $70m odd, then Idk who is!

[The Dark Rock]

57 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Final update until I post final numbers in the morning:

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	15,177	40.1%	68.0%		3:00-3:59	10,478	50.0%	88.2%
4:00-4:59	6,266	25.5%	71.0%		4:00-4:59	6,052	45.8%	157.6%
5:00-5:59	3,383	19.7%	45.5%		5:00-5:59	2,716	25.9%	60.4%
6:00-6:59	17,410	39.4%	120.9%		6:00-6:59	11,114	42.0%	121.2%
7:00-7:59	19,802	41.4%	51.4%		7:00-7:59	15,053	49.6%	62.3%
8:00-8:59	7,042	22.7%	29.7%		8:00-8:59	5,772	31.7%	51.7%
9:00-9:59	9,098	22.3%	72.5%		9:00-9:59	5,629	26.3%	84.8%
10:00-10:59	6,122	20.2%	68.7%		10:00-10:59	3,548	20.5%	76.5%
11:00-11:59	492	6.0%	4.8%		11:00-11:59	223	5.9%	3.8%
12:00+	119	2.4%	10.4%		12:00+	0	0.0%	0.0%
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	4,163	72.8%	123.2%		3:00-3:59	7,778	38.8%	61.2%
4:00-4:59	1,512	44.3%	168.9%		4:00-4:59	4,567	38.4%	87.0%
5:00-5:59	968	36.7%	81.6%		5:00-5:59	2,223	21.5%	57.8%
6:00-6:59	3,910	54.7%	172.9%		6:00-6:59	8,402	36.9%	100.0%
7:00-7:59	4,437	64.0%	71.9%		7:00-7:59	9,626	41.1%	49.4%
8:00-8:59	1,691	42.8%	61.9%		8:00-8:59	4,376	26.7%	38.9%
9:00-9:59	1,608	29.7%	101.1%		9:00-9:59	5,398	26.1%	72.0%
10:00-10:59	902	21.0%	93.5%		10:00-10:59	3,651	20.3%	66.6%
11:00-11:59	87	12.4%	5.0%		11:00-11:59	499	6.8%	6.5%
12:00+	0	0.0%	-		12:00+	127	1.9%	7.8%

 

 

Not sure if I got this right. But looks like 65-70% of sales in comparison to The Batman. So probably around $14m or so for the previews? (given Batman did $21.5m)

 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

 

Not sure if I got this right. But looks like 65-70% of sales in comparison to The Batman. So probably around $14m or so for the previews? (given Batman did $21.5m)

 

These are comps just for Thursday and only meant for general reference.  The full The Batman comp puts Maverick at about $15M, but net Alpha comps point towards $17M

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

 

Not sure if I got this right. But looks like 65-70% of sales in comparison to The Batman. So probably around $14m or so for the previews? (given Batman did $21.5m)

 

but the Tuesday ea screenings were much closer, nearly matching , than Thursday

[Maggie]

Just now, ZackM said:

These are comps just for Thursday and only meant for general reference.  The full The Batman comp puts Maverick at about $15M, but net Alpha comps point towards $17M

Is this true Thursday or includes Tuesday screenings?

[Ryan Reynolds]

will the corporate / group sales really add anything close to a million to preview numbers?