The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For opening day, it will be 4-8%. 

 

Not a prediction for BP previews but Philly could give 50M+ previews comps I guess.

So as I get more comps, and assuming I don't find a magical source for Canada only numbers, whats' the best way to figure out a percentage for Canada? Like say a movie makes 50 million opening day, how would one approximately calculate what percentage Canada would get (like 8, 9, 10 percent)? I mean once I would have that percentage then good to go that a 50 million opening would be 5 mil in Canada if at 10, so I could calculate the comp from that 5 million. Or is that where having more comps comes in, and then kind of averaging it out?

 

Or am I just doing a whole lot of guesstimation? 

[M37]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis Harkins T-1 Day

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,579	69.16%	$24,403	$15.45
Thursday	113	27,549	2,082	7.56%	$23,614	$11.34
Total	120	29,832	3,661	12.27%	$48,017	$13.12

 

Big growth for Elvis, adding over 700 seats in THU. Should hit 5.25-5.5K for THU I believe i.e. $60K, which will normally means $3M approx nationwide, with EA should come around $4M. 

 

Comps

0.53x of Eternals - $5M (THU only $2.85M)

That is a really sold sales day, +56% growth for just Thursday shows. However, Marcus was +29%, @katnisscinnaplex markets +34%, and Philly just +15%, so there's some divergence here - could be with EA being limited, those with more supply (like Harkins) were taking away from Thursday, now playing catch-up, while other chains/market were just funneling to Thursday

 

@keysersoze123 - did you happen to run an MTC1 grab for Thursday Elvis yesterday? Curious whether those totals are closer to the higher or lower end of the wide range here (ie how far over/under 30K/+30%)

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So as I get more comps, and assuming I don't find a magical source for Canada only numbers, whats' the best way to figure out a percentage for Canada? Like say a movie makes 50 million opening day, how would one approximately calculate what percentage Canada would get (like 8, 9, 10 percent)? I mean once I would have that percentage then good to go that a 50 million opening would be 5 mil in Canada if at 10, so I could calculate the comp from that 5 million. Or is that where having more comps comes in, and then kind of averaging it out?

 

Or am I just doing a whole lot of guesstimation? 

I will try to post as many Canada ODs I can in Canada thread. @DAJK can help 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

That is a really sold sales day, +56% growth for just Thursday shows. However, Marcus was +29%, @katnisscinnaplex markets +34%, and Philly just +15%, so there's some divergence here - could be with EA being limited, those with more supply (like Harkins) were taking away from Thursday, now playing catch-up, while other chains/market were just funneling to Thursday

Yes EA factor involved there but also Harkins is backloaded than national trend.

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will try to post as many Canada ODs I can in Canada thread. @DAJK can help 

Thank you. I really am enjoying the comps and being able to do Canada to Canada would obviously help. 

 

Now you say Canada thread-is that in international or in another thread with Canada stuff in it? 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Tinalera

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I think Nope is going to be our first true bomb of the summer.  You could argue that Lightyear is, but I could see Nope not catching on at all unless Universal figures out a way in the next 2 weeks to actually market the film.  

 

They are relying on name recognition of Jordan Peele at this point.  Unfortunately for them, not enough people really know who he is and Get Out was 5 years ago and Us just wasn't well received.  

 

I get that they want to take the high level approach to the marketing, but quite frankly the movie looks very uninteresting visually and the premise is about as clear as mud.  

 

The daily ticket sales updates seem to indicate that there is little interest at this point.  It could surprise, but Universal has to get moving.  

Eeek! That doesn’t sound good. 
 

I’d agree though, the trailer hasn’t become a phenomenon like Us was with the use of the song. Plus, Peele’s films were both huge hits so this has big shoes to fill. 
 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

FYI AMC has updated their fall list of movies that are getting Dolby/PLFs:

 

New Movies, Theaters Near You, Movie Tickets, Showtimes, Movie Trailers, Movies in Theaters (amctheatres.com)

 

Salem's Lot, The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, Lyle Lyle Crocodile, Tar (guessing this will be select theaters since it's Focus), Halloween Ends, Black Adam. Also not included yet but the trailers for Devotion say it'll be in PLF so guessing it takes over when it goes wide October 28.

Salem’s Lot opens in 3 months. We don’t even have a teaser poster yet lol. 

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Eeek! That doesn’t sound good. 
 

I’d agree though, the trailer hasn’t become a phenomenon like Us was with the use of the song. Plus, Peele’s films were both huge hits so this has big shoes to fill. 
 

Salem’s Lot opens in 3 months. We don’t even have a teaser poster yet lol. 

 

I have seen the Salem's Lot footage, it looked good.  

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Salem’s Lot opens in 3 months. We don’t even have a teaser poster yet lol. 

I would've figured it would have something ready for The Black Phone but guess not lol. If there's nothing in time for Nope than yeah, it's moving. The Woman King still doesn't have any marketing materials either (wasted opportunity to not release something for Juneteenth IMO) but I imagine Sony's gonna premiere the trailer in time for Crawdads.

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I would've figured it would have something ready for The Black Phone but guess not lol. If there's nothing in time for Nope than yeah, it's moving. The Woman King still doesn't have any marketing materials either (wasted opportunity to not release something for Juneteenth IMO) but I imagine Sony's gonna premiere the trailer in time for Crawdads.

 

I saw the footage for that as well, looks pretty damn good.  

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I have seen the Salem's Lot footage, it looked good.  

I’ve heard good things, hoping for a trailer soon. WB really know how to market a horror film when they try. 
 

Also noticed Evil Dead Rise (which is for HBOMax) had footage shown at CineEurope so I’m hoping that means it’s going theatrical here and they change their mind in the US too. 

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, M37 said:

That is a really sold sales day, +56% growth for just Thursday shows. However, Marcus was +29%, @katnisscinnaplex markets +34%, and Philly just +15%, so there's some divergence here - could be with EA being limited, those with more supply (like Harkins) were taking away from Thursday, now playing catch-up, while other chains/market were just funneling to Thursday

 

@keysersoze123 - did you happen to run an MTC1 grab for Thursday Elvis yesterday? Curious whether those totals are closer to the higher or lower end of the wide range here (ie how far over/under 30K/+30%)

I did run Elvis late night yesterday. Just did not post. 

 

Elvis MTC1

Thursday Previews - 29925/223413 470430.43 1565 shows

Friday - 41704/485730 588840.52 3446 shows

 

I would say very good boost for both days. Now thinking this will do mid thirties and win the weekend. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

So as I get more comps, and assuming I don't find a magical source for Canada only numbers, whats' the best way to figure out a percentage for Canada? Like say a movie makes 50 million opening day, how would one approximately calculate what percentage Canada would get (like 8, 9, 10 percent)? I mean once I would have that percentage then good to go that a 50 million opening would be 5 mil in Canada if at 10, so I could calculate the comp from that 5 million. Or is that where having more comps comes in, and then kind of averaging it out?

 

Or am I just doing a whole lot of guesstimation? 

That’s a good place to start, but it’s not the whole story. One thing you have to remember is that Canada and the US are very different markets, and have somewhat different tastes when it comes to certain movies. Last year in particular, I remember Free Guy and Shang Chi massively overperforming in Canada relative to their US grosses. On the flip side, horror is generally less strong in Canada (with the exception of the It movies which were very strong). So for example, I have a feeling Nope will underperform hard in Canada relative to the US. Same with Black Phone, but to a lesser extent.

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

That’s a good place to start, but it’s not the whole story. One thing you have to remember is that Canada and the US are very different markets, and have somewhat different tastes when it comes to certain movies. Last year in particular, I remember Free Guy and Shang Chi massively overperforming in Canada relative to their US grosses. On the flip side, horror is generally less strong in Canada (with the exception of the It movies which were very strong). So for example, I have a feeling Nope will underperform hard in Canada relative to the US. Same with Black Phone, but to a lesser extent.

So a big part of it (is Im understanding right) is looking at past numbers from Canada, looking at the states, seeing how my past counts have compared previous movies, and then working it out. And its taking that whole percentage into consideration and seeing how those movies performed. Like you said, a Shang Chi may not perform as much as a Nope in Canada compared to US. So I think see it. Even if I went and made the calculations of Nope and maybe in Canada it was a 87 percent-doesnt mean its going to be 87 in US, where it might, based on previous horror films, might be a 95 percent. 

 

And then the fun part is "well Canada and US are combined so how much of Canadas take is part of that Nope number because of its underperformance compared to say a MCU tentpole". What I am understanding then is that its not just using the xpercentage of sales X opening because US and Canada could be very different. So Canada basically has to be treated as its own beast, and using a little more guesswork and estimation accordingly. 

 

In the grand scheme of things people will see Canadas numbers are really only a 8-12 percent ish variation of what US is. But Canada is important because to use the same idea an 8-12 percent is....well 8-12 percent of estimating a final Friday for US.

 

So what essentially should I be doing right now as a starting point? It was suggested do my comps just take those precautions and as I said I would do would do comp with an advisory that these are numbers based on Canada only, and to take with appropriate grain of salt? Then if I am able to acclumulate some actual Canada Friday numbers over time at that point can start doing (again they be Canada Specific) comps?

 

BTW Thanks to you and @charlie Jatinder) for taking the time to talk to me and encourage me on this. It really means alot as I try and figure things out here

Edited June 23, 2022 by Tinalera

[Daxtreme]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

That’s a good place to start, but it’s not the whole story. One thing you have to remember is that Canada and the US are very different markets, and have somewhat different tastes when it comes to certain movies. Last year in particular, I remember Free Guy and Shang Chi massively overperforming in Canada relative to their US grosses. On the flip side, horror is generally less strong in Canada (with the exception of the It movies which were very strong). So for example, I have a feeling Nope will underperform hard in Canada relative to the US. Same with Black Phone, but to a lesser extent.

 

Dune would be another example of Canada overperformance vs USA, mainly because Denis Villeneuve is from Quebec.

 

And in Canada for instance, when TFA ended its run, it out-grossed Avatar domestically massively. But I remember back then, I think it was RTH who said that Avatar was still the highest grossing movie of all-time in Canada, although TFA beat it by like almost $200M in North America overall.

 

So yeah, not the same market. Not the same tastes.

[Tinalera]

12 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Dune would be another example of Canada overperformance vs USA, mainly because Denis Villeneuve is from Quebec.

 

And in Canada for instance, when TFA ended its run, it out-grossed Avatar domestically massively. But I remember back then, I think it was RTH who said that Avatar was still the highest grossing movie of all-time in Canada, although TFA beat it by like almost $200M in North America overall.

 

So yeah, not the same market. Not the same tastes.

Yet they won't separate canada boxoffice from US when it comes to totals. I think it will be an interesting kind of experiment/observation to see how Canada does as its own animal as I do these numbers over time.

 

Anyway, apologies from kind of detracting a bit from the thread itself. Appreciate all the feedback!

Edited June 23, 2022 by Tinalera

[Daxtreme]

I'd love it if someone could double-check my affirmation above on Avatar vs TFA in Canada. Not sure if that's even possible though lmao

 

They should indeed split them IMO

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

 

BTW Thanks to you and Charlie Jatinder (don't know how to tag)

All you have to do to tag someone is use the @ symbol and start typing the username right after it.  @Tinalera

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-0	Jax	6	23	56	179	2,416	7.41%
		Phx	7	26	150	303	3,479	8.71%
		Ral	7	17	41	194	1,842	10.53%
	Total		20	66	247	676	7,737	8.74%
Elvis	T-0	Jax	7	33	66	376	5,349	7.03%
		Phx	7	24	152	399	2,800	14.25%
		Ral	8	21	75	378	2,146	17.61%
	Total		22	78	293	1,153	10,295	11.20%
Malcolm List	T-7	Jax	5	8	0	0	859	0.00%
		Phx	4	7	3	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	3	4	1	1	191	0.52%
	Total		12	19	4	4	1,624	0.25%
Minions 2	T-7	Jax	7	104	8	127	17,171	0.74%
		Phx	6	66	18	146	12,191	1.20%
		Ral	8	59	19	172	7,630	2.25%
	Total		21	229	45	445	36,992	1.20%
Nope	T-28	Jax	7	51	2	46	8,591	0.54%
		Phx	6	20	1	74	4,344	1.70%
		Ral	8	25	0	54	3,411	1.58%
	Total		21	96	3	174	16,346	1.06%
Thor 4	T-14	Jax	7	112	48	1,526	17,265	8.84%
		Phx	6	111	60	1,954	18,041	10.83%
		Ral	8	63	56	1,734	8,326	20.83%
	Total		21	286	164	5,214	43,632	11.95%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Candyman - 1.31x (2.48m)

 - Firestarter - 4.57x (1.71m)

 - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.22x (2.08m)

 - Halloween Kills - .373x (1.81m)

 - Antlers - 5.73x (2.12x)

 - X - 3.03x (1.33m)

 - Men - 4.48x (1.89m)

 

Bumping up to 1.8m for Thursday; with EA it should be easily above 2m

 

Elvis (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.91x (3.55m)

 - F9 - .377x (2.68m)

 - Ghostbusters - .643x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - 1.68x (4.2m)

 - Father Stu - 5.17x (2.84m)

 

Minions 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .809x (4.03m)

 - FB3 - .375x (2.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .77x (3.2m)

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 

Nope T-28 comp

 - JW-D - missed

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .528x (19m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.51m)

 - No Way Home - .317x (15.83m)

 - Black Widow - 2.75x (36.32m)

 - JW3 - 2.04x (36.76m)

https://myfox8.com/news/north-carolina/movie-theater-with-pod-seating-huge-66-foot-wide-screen-outdoor-screen-coming-to-cary-in-july/

 

Another theater just opened in the Raleigh area. Not planning on tracking it (mainly because each showtime has FIVE reserved areas I'd have to check!), but just noting that it may affect comps.  The article states July 1st opening, but there are showtimes with sales for today.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/17/2022 at 3:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

837

3809

21.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

806

4985

16.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3823	158	37793	10.12%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	2741
Cinemarks sold	508
Regals sold	315
Harkins sold	259

 

0.660x Doctor Strange MoM Day 4 (23.75M)

1.26x Batman Day 4 (27.24M)

0.327x NWH Day 4 (16.36M)

 

The two day pace of Thor is outpacing Doctor Strange here. Bodes well if it can keep it up. Next time I count, which won't be for several days, I'll go to the T-X comps

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1025

3809

26.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1008

4985

20.22%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4627	804	37793	12.24%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3288
Cinemarks sold	649
Regals sold	372
Harkins sold	318

 

1.63x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (31.46M)

0.635x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (22.87M)

0.396x NWH T-14 (19.81M)

 

The 6 day sales of Doctor Strange at this point was 803. If Thor continues to closely follow it, then the comp will end up around 30M.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/17/2022 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-20 Thursday(190 showings): 3421(+154)/47563

0.582x Doctor Strange MoM Day 4 (20.94M)

0.905x Batman Day 4 (19.54M)

0.205x NWH Day 4 (10.27M)

 

T-21 Friday(258 showings): 1721(+115)/67683

0.626x Doctor Strange MoM Day 4 (34.23M)

1.49x Batman Day 4 (52.29M)

0.150x NWH Day 4 (10.79M)

 

T-22 Saturday(264 showings): 828(+55)/69227

0.599x Doctor Strange MoM Day 4 (34.64M)

1.47x Batman Day 4 (63.40M)

0.152x NWH Day 4 (11.20M)

 

T-23 Sunday(253 showings): 255(+43)/68879

0.773x Doctor Strange MoM Day 4 (30.05M)

2.38x Batman Day 4 (81.36M)

0.236x NWH Day 4 (15.14M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex [6 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(190 showings): 4349(+928)/47563

1.37x Top Gun Maverick T-14 (26.32M)

0.545x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (19.61M) [+1119]

0.261x NWH T-14 (13.06M)

 

T-15 Friday(258 showings): 2371(+650)/67683

0.787x Top Gun Maverick T-15 (25.78M)

0.551x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (30.14M) [+881]

0.207x NWH T-15 (14.87M)

 

T-16 Saturday(264 showings): 1155(+327)/69227

0.606x Top Gun Maverick T-16 (23.03M)

0.473x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (27.33M) [+589]

0.211x NWH T-16 (15.62M)

 

T-17 Sunday(253 showings): 430(+175)/68879

0.973x Top Gun Maverick T-17 (35.68M)

0.734x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (28.54M) [+140]

0.398x NWH T-17 (25.53M)