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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Thor 4 (Sat) PLF 82 1,712 6,309 16,938 37.25% $14.90 $94,019.41
    Standard 155 2,188 5,175 20,994 24.65% $10.43 $53,965.94
  Thor 4 (Sat) Total   237 3,900 11,484 37,932 30.28% $12.89 $147,985.35

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Thor 4 (Sat) N 122 1,558 5,293 19,598 27.01% $15.00 $79,393.10
    Y 115 2,342 6,191 18,334 33.77% $11.08 $68,592.25
  Thor 4 (Sat) Total   237 3,900 11,484 37,932 30.28% $12.89 $147,985.35

 

T-1 to T-0 sales for Thor

Thu: 9,248 to 11,332

Fri: 7,776 to 11,239

Sat: 7,584 to 11,484

 

Crazy how close all three days finished in tickets sold.

 

Unadjusted T-0 Sat comps

 - NWH - .542x (40.04m)

 - Batman - 1x (43.43m)

 - DS2 - .643x (37.14m)

 - TG2 - 1.28x (48.77m)

 - JW3 - .742x (34.77m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 41m Fri)

 - NWH - 44.1m

 - Batman - 44.56m

 - DS2 - 39.49m

 - TG2 - 45.94m

 - JW3 - 45.5m

 

Looking at how final presales multipliers change from Fri to Sat, only DS2 has decreased (6%) while all other comps have increased between 5% and 10%.  I want to balance summer (higher walkups) and the slightly worse reception/reviews to give around a 2% increase in multiplier.  That would put Saturday at 42.9m.

Just noticed I had overwritten my formula in my comps section to look at hypothetical comps.  I was using the 11,239 number from Friday, which caused comps to be a little lower.  Post has been updated and I'm sticking with my projection (and feel even better about it now)

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Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) PLF 83 3,261 3,261 17,054 19.12% $14.52 $47,336.86
    Standard 154 2,300 2,300 20,768 11.07% $10.29 $23,661.06
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77 $70,997.92

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) N 121 1,924 1,924 19,377 9.93% $15.18 $29,208.27
    Y 116 3,637 3,637 18,445 19.72% $11.49 $41,789.65
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77

$70,997.92

 

Sunday presales are looking better than I expected to see.  

 

Unadjusted Sunday T-1 comps

 - NWH - .506x (32.5m)

 - Batman - 1.032x (35.23m)

 

NWH and Batman had pretty similar presales increase in the final day (83% and 84.9%).  A similar increase for Thor would give us an adjusted comp total of 35.3m

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9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cant they just drive to the plex and get the tickets at the box office? Especially in the absence of tv/internet/cell service, people would rather go to the plex for entertainment. 

ATM and Interac (Debit) was (apparently Rogers is up again now) was affected too, so people driving would have had to have cash on hand, which meant probably having to go through the bank teller to get cash. Now credit cards were being mostly accepted in places, but I guess my thinking was at the time how many people will want to go through all that to go to movies.

 

But its apparently moot now as most stuff is back online-there was a bit going about it was going to go till monday, but I guess Rogers fixed whatever they fixed. :)

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13 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) PLF 83 3,261 3,261 17,054 19.12% $14.52 $47,336.86
    Standard 154 2,300 2,300 20,768 11.07% $10.29 $23,661.06
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77 $70,997.92

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) N 121 1,924 1,924 19,377 9.93% $15.18 $29,208.27
    Y 116 3,637 3,637 18,445 19.72% $11.49 $41,789.65
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77

$70,997.92

 

Sunday presales are looking better than I expected to see.  

 

Unadjusted Sunday T-1 comps

 - NWH - .506x (32.5m)

 - Batman - 1.032x (35.23m)

 

NWH and Batman had pretty similar presales increase in the final day (83% and 84.9%).  A similar increase for Thor would give us an adjusted comp total of 35.3m

18-20% sun drop seems pretty normal to me.

 

Sun drops have been within this range for most of June.

 

Summer is basically strong weekdays ,mute Fri and sat jumps,softer sun drops.

 

It's what I was expecting.

29

41

43-44

34.4-35.2

147.5-149.2m

Approx 148-150m.

 

 

Edited by Liiviig 1998
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12 hours ago, M37 said:

Props to @Inceptionzq and @katnisscinnaplex for pretty much nailing True Friday 

 

He, my number was also not bad - 38M 😊.

 

But I think I made a mistake when it comes to the Sunday number. I mentioned that Thor had better jumps than Doctor Strange 2 but I forget that these trends normally continue and Thor still had 3 days left to come closer (from Thursday to Sunday in this case).

So the number would have been +3M and then 29M.

And I guess that number is also too low because my Friday estimate definitely was a bit too low and more important,@katnisscinnaplex has it at 35M+.

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7 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

What’s crawdads looking to open at?

It's selling pretty well near me (both the Wednesday Early Access show and the only evening show so far for Thursday are pretty much full in a 65 seat auditorium while the main evening show for Friday has already sold about 1/4 of one of the bigger theaters at the most popular theater near me). FWIW the book is back at #1 on the NYT best sellers list, almost certainly because of the promotion for the movie, so clearly there's interest in it.

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On 7/8/2022 at 10:51 PM, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 65 333 13040 2.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.424x of F9 T-13 (3.01M)

2.296x of Space Jam 2 T-13 (30.08M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 65 348 13040 2.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.411x of F9 T-12 (2.92M)

2.175x of Space Jam 2 T-12 (28.49M)

1.074x of Halloween Kills T-12 (5.21M)

1.098x of Scream T-12 (3.84M)

 

Huh...I guess those comps are good after all.

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On 7/8/2022 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13327

13691

364

2.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-13

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

107.69

 

14

338

 

0/81

13614/13952

2.42%

 

2352

15.48%

 

4.42m

LTBC

37.53

 

92

970

 

0/155

24891/25861

3.75%

 

7712

4.72%

 

4.35m

NTTD

46.67

 

57

780

 

0/135

20479/21259

3.67%

 

3737

9.74%

 

2.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-13

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

36.62

 

48

983

 

0/79

11432/12415

7.92%

 

4407

8.17%

 

2.72m

Nope (adj)

 

13

360

 

0/72

11120/11480

3.14%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     71/3959  [1.79% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13307

13691

384

2.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

109.40

 

13

351

 

0/81

13601/13952

2.52%

 

2352

16.33%

 

4.49m

LTBC

36.16

 

92

1062

 

0/155

24799/25861

4.11%

 

7712

4.98%

 

4.19m

NTTD

47.29

 

32

812

 

0/135

20447/21259

3.82%

 

3737

10.28%

 

2.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

37.22

 

38

1021

 

0/79

11394/12415

8.22%

 

4407

8.62%

 

2.77m

Nope (adj)

 

20

380

 

0/72

11100/11480

3.31%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     75/3959  [1.89% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.43% of all tickets sold]

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) PLF 83 3,261 3,261 17,054 19.12% $14.52 $47,336.86
    Standard 154 2,300 2,300 20,768 11.07% $10.29 $23,661.06
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77 $70,997.92

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Thor 4 (Sun) N 121 1,924 1,924 19,377 9.93% $15.18 $29,208.27
    Y 116 3,637 3,637 18,445 19.72% $11.49 $41,789.65
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   237 5,561 5,561 37,822 14.70% $12.77

$70,997.92

 

Sunday presales are looking better than I expected to see.  

 

Unadjusted Sunday T-1 comps

 - NWH - .506x (32.5m)

 - Batman - 1.032x (35.23m)

 

NWH and Batman had pretty similar presales increase in the final day (83% and 84.9%).  A similar increase for Thor would give us an adjusted comp total of 35.3m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Thor 4 (Sun) PLF 83 1,786 5,047 17,054 29.59% $14.46 $72,973.06
    Standard 155 1,865 4,165 21,004 19.83% $10.16 $42,308.29
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   238 3,651 9,212 38,058 24.21% $12.51 $115,281.35

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Thor 4 (Sun) N 122 1,229 3,153 19,613 16.08% $14.98 $47,239.98
    Y 116 2,422 6,059 18,445 32.85% $11.23 $68,041.37
  Thor 4 (Sun) Total   238 3,651 9,212 38,058 24.21% $12.51 $115,281.35

 

Well, Thor finally missed the mark, with Sunday presales coming in considerably lower than projected.  It only increased 66% compared to NWH & Batman in the 83%-85% range.  Not only will this lower the comps, but Saturday coming in lower will further decrease the adjusted comps.

 

Sunday straight comps

 - NWH - .458x (29.422m)

 - Batman - .925x (31.56m)

 - DS2 - .823x (32m)

 

Adjusted comps (avg Fri & Sat multipliers)

 - NWH - 31.34m

 - Batman - 31.17m

 - DS2 - 34.79m

 

When looking at the presales multiplier ranges for comps, Saturday was basically flat from Friday while comps suggested a -6% to +6% range.   The range for Sunday looks to be -9% to +7% with there being an inverse relationship between Sat and Sun changes.  Here's a look at what I'm seeing:

 

Batman: +6% to -9%

DS2: -6% to +7%

NWH: +5% to -8%

 

If it can match DS2 Sunday presales multiplier, that would be about -4% off of Saturday and put Sunday's gross at 32.01m.  Definitely disappointing after yesterday's update, but, as always, this is just presales for one small chain.

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On 7/9/2022 at 8:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Crawdads T-5 Jax 6 18 16 90 1,884 4.78%
    Phx 5 15 7 38 1,833 2.07%
    Ral 7 22 27 188 2,101 8.95%
  Total   18 55 50 316 5,818 5.43%
Crawdads (EA) T-4 Jax 1 1 7 31 86 36.05%
  Total   1 1 7 31 86 36.05%
Easter Sunday T-26 Jax 6 15 3 3 2,232 0.13%
    Phx 3 9 1 1 1,134 0.09%
    Ral 7 16 0 0 1,976 0.00%
  Total   16 40 4 4 5,342 0.07%
Nope T-12 Jax 7 50 5 94 8,422 1.12%
    Phx 6 20 19 163 4,344 3.75%
    Ral 8 24 10 125 3,332 3.75%
  Total   21 94 34 382 16,098 2.37%
Paws of Fury T-5 Jax 6 24 0 9 2,292 0.39%
    Phx 5 16 0 15 1,628 0.92%
    Ral 7 20 0 16 1,984 0.81%
  Total   18 60 0 40 5,904 0.68%

 

Took advantage of a slow day to set up Easter Sunday tracking. I'd like to say I won't look at it again for a while, but with how much time the app is saving me, why not.  

 

Crawdads T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .758x (2.42m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Black Phone - 2.01x (5.23m)

 

Paws of Fury T-5 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .19x (858k)

 - Encanto - .367x (550k)

 

Nope T-12 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .92x (3.82m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.36x (5.59m)

 - F9 - .543x (3.86m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.94m)

 

Looks like it'll be T-7 for Halloween Kills and T-6 for Candyman comps to start.   

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Crawdads T-4 Jax 6 18 9 99 1,884 5.25%
    Phx 5 15 2 40 1,833 2.18%
    Ral 7 22 16 204 2,101 9.71%
  Total   18 55 27 343 5,818 5.90%
Crawdads (EA) T-3 Jax 1 1 5 36 86 41.86%
  Total   1 1 5 36 86 41.86%
Easter Sunday T-25 Jax 6 15 0 3 2,232 0.13%
    Phx 3 9 0 1 1,134 0.09%
    Ral 7 16 4 4 1,976 0.20%
  Total   16 40 4 8 5,342 0.15%
Nope T-11 Jax 7 50 5 99 8,422 1.18%
    Phx 6 20 3 166 4,344 3.82%
    Ral 8 24 8 133 3,332 3.99%
  Total   21 94 16 398 16,098 2.47%
Paws of Fury T-4 Jax 6 24 1 10 2,292 0.44%
    Phx 5 16 1 16 1,628 0.98%
    Ral 7 20 7 23 1,984 1.16%
  Total   18 60 9 49 5,904 0.83%

 

Crawdads T-4 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - NTTD - .345 (1.8m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .478x (2.32m)

 - Ghostbusters - .427x (1.77m)

 

I added some more comps since I missed most of the T-4 updates.

 

Paws of Fury T-4 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Peter Rabbit - .72x (649k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .188x (849k)

 - Encanto - .302x (454k)

 

Nope T-11 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .913x (3.79m)

 - NTTD - .875x (4.55m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.35x (5.55m)

 - F9 - .534x (3.79m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.95m)

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14 hours ago, filmlover said:

It's selling pretty well near me (both the Wednesday Early Access show and the only evening show so far for Thursday are pretty much full in a 65 seat auditorium while the main evening show for Friday has already sold about 1/4 of one of the bigger theaters at the most popular theater near me). FWIW the book is back at #1 on the NYT best sellers list, almost certainly because of the promotion for the movie, so clearly there's interest in it.

Is it just me or Crawdads' marketing hint more of a YA adaptation? (I never read the book). Initially I thought it was a Sony attempt to target remain underserved young girls crowd but in the end, seem like it is the older ladies that got hyped.  

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it just me or Crawdads' marketing hint more of a YA adaptation? (I never read the book). Initially I thought it was a Sony attempt to target remain underserved young girls crowd but in the end, seem like it is the older ladies that got hyped.  

As we discussed in the movie topic the book is definitely a cult for older audiences, the perfect book club bestseller. It's a kind of The help + Girl on the train + To kill a mockingbird.  So no it's not a YA book.

 

Since the movie was annunced and the trailer was released definitely more young people are been hooked but the core audience is 50+ women.

 

The trailer is selling the love story and a lot of the promotion is about that. Probably they knew older audience is already hooked so they tried to get more young women  (see also Swift original song). 

Edited by vale9001
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22 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 65 348 13040 2.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.411x of F9 T-12 (2.92M)

2.175x of Space Jam 2 T-12 (28.49M)

1.074x of Halloween Kills T-12 (5.21M)

1.098x of Scream T-12 (3.84M)

 

Huh...I guess those comps are good after all.

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 65 359 13040 2.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

0.415x of F9 T-11 (2.95M)

1.726x of Space Jam 2 T-11 (22.61M)
0.955x of Halloween Kills T-11 (4.63M)

1.075x of Scream T-11 (3.76M)

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9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it just me or Crawdads' marketing hint more of a YA adaptation? (I never read the book). Initially I thought it was a Sony attempt to target remain underserved young girls crowd but in the end, seem like it is the older ladies that got hyped.  

They're playing up the romance angle (at least as much as they can considering the plot is clearly set in motion by one of the potential suitors ending up dead) and the Taylor Swift song in the marketing to try and get a younger demographic on board in addition to the book's enormous fan base. Doubt it'll work much though. A murder mystery set in the 60s is naturally going to appeal most to an older audience.

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13307

13691

384

2.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

20

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

109.40

 

13

351

 

0/81

13601/13952

2.52%

 

2352

16.33%

 

4.49m

LTBC

36.16

 

92

1062

 

0/155

24799/25861

4.11%

 

7712

4.98%

 

4.19m

NTTD

47.29

 

32

812

 

0/135

20447/21259

3.82%

 

3737

10.28%

 

2.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-12

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

37.22

 

38

1021

 

0/79

11394/12415

8.22%

 

4407

8.62%

 

2.77m

Nope (adj)

 

20

380

 

0/72

11100/11480

3.31%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     75/3959  [1.89% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.43% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

86

13286

13691

405

2.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

21

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-11

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

TSS

110.96

 

14

365

 

0/81

13587/13952

2.62%

 

2352

17.22%

 

4.55m

LTBC

34.64

 

107

1169

 

0/156

24909/26078

4.48%

 

7712

5.25%

 

4.02m

NTTD

46.23

 

64

876

 

0/134

20340/21216

4.13%

 

3737

10.84%

 

2.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-11 Adjusted Comps

 

   

%

 

Sold
T-11

Total

Sold

 

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

 

Final

Sold

% of

Final

 

 

Comp

F9

36.85

 

59

1080

 

0/79

11335/12415

8.70%

 

4407

9.03%

 

2.74m

Nope (adj)

 

18

398

 

0/72

11082/11480

3.47%

 

 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      77/3959  [1.94% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.20% of all tickets sold]

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