The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Duncan]

Magic Mike's Last Dance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	134	4121	3.25%

 

Comp - T-3

0.905x of Death on the Nile (996K)

2.094x of Marry Me (1.09M)

0.687x of Dog (866K)

0.259x of The Lost City (841K)

0.330x of Downton Abbey 2 (627K)

0.248x of Elvis (867K)

0.691x of Where the Crawdads Sing (1.59M)

0.118x of Don't Worry Darling (366K)

2.627x of Ticket to Paradise (2.89M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 2/5/2023 at 11:32 PM, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	4423	31384	14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 82

 

Comp - T-11

2.104x of Black Widow (27.77M)

4.184x of Shang-Chi (36.82M)

2.597x of Eternals (24.67M)

0.269x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.46M)

0.844x of The Batman (18.22M)

0.440x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.84M)

0.743x of Thor 4 (21.56M)

0.589x of Black Panther 2 (16.5M)

2.091x of Avatar 2 (35.55M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	4554	31384	14.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 131

 

Comp - T-10

2.059x of Black Widow (27.18M)

3.853x of Shang-Chi (33.9M)

2.503x of Eternals (23.78M)

0.267x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.37M)

0.847x of The Batman (18.3M)

0.443x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.95M)

0.742x of Thor 4 (21.52M)

0.592x of Black Panther 2 (16.58M)

2.077x of Avatar 2 (35.32M)

[SchumacherFTW]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

65 is 87 minutes long according to AMC.

That is going to be the greatest movie ever then 

[JustLurking]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I guess Americas excluding.

 

Better line I guess would be, Its a practical thing in various parts of world.

This definitely does not happen in Italy, France or Japan as far as I'm aware.

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

That is going to be the greatest movie ever then 

22 mins too long 

[Porthos]

On 2/5/2023 at 11:52 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	238	27617	32794	5177	15.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

162

 

T-11 Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	46.78		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	24.52%		16.84m
L&T	72.06		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	30.52%		20.90m
BP2	67.98		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	30.82%		19.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1093/13004  [8.41% sold]
Matinee:      167/3314  [5.04% | 3.22% of all tickets sold]
3D:             627/6536  [9.59% | 12.09% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	238	27475	32794	5319	16.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

142

 

T-10 Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.11		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	25.19%		16.96m
L&T	72.25		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	31.36%		20.95m
BP2	68.04		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	31.66%		19.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1135/13004  [8.73% sold]
Matinee:     173/3314  [5.22% | 3.25% of all tickets sold]
3D:            635/6536  [9.72% | 11.94% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

NB:  I accidentally over-counted yesterday's total by 8 seats sold.  Fairly negligible in the grand scheme of things, but I already went back and corrected it (so the quoted post here is correct), but wanted to point it out for the official record/anyone keeping track of totals here.

[Legion Again]

On 1/19/2023 at 7:11 AM, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

my official forecasts off 24h data is:

If good reception: 80% chance 22-28.5 (point forecast 25)

If more DS2/Thor reception: 80% chance 19.5-25 (point forecast 22)

Early reception indicators aren’t looking great, probably closer to case B unfortunately 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

22 mins too long 

1280 secs too short

[Hiccup23]

I will be doing Winnie-the-Pooh previews for my state tomorrow, next Monday, and Wednesday. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-10	Jax	6	91	21	1,334	15,860	8.41%
		Phx	6	85	41	1,395	15,027	9.28%
		Ral	8	102	55	1,392	13,657	10.19%
	Total		20	278	117	4,121	44,544	9.25%
Cocaine Bear	T-17	Jax	5	17	19	19	1,954	0.97%
		Phx	5	12	38	38	1,770	2.15%
		Ral	7	18	46	46	1,443	3.19%
	Total		17	47	103	103	5,167	1.99%
Jesus Revolution	T-17	Jax	5	9	24	24	1,021	2.35%
		Phx	4	5	17	17	622	2.73%
		Ral	7	11	45	45	1,156	3.89%
	Total		16	25	86	86	2,799	3.07%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-16	Jax	5	11	234	234	1,021	22.92%
		Phx	5	8	125	125	850	14.71%
		Ral	8	12	645	645	1,462	44.12%
	Total		18	31	1,004	1,004	3,333	30.12%
Magic Mike 3	T-3	Jax	4	20	9	82	2,295	3.57%
		Phx	6	14	14	26	2,112	1.23%
		Ral	7	16	16	115	2,018	5.70%
	Total		17	50	39	223	6,425	3.47%
Marlowe	T-8	Jax	5	15	11	11	1,540	0.71%
		Phx	4	9	2	2	733	0.27%
		Ral	1	4	4	4	260	1.54%
	Total		10	28	17	17	2,533	0.67%
Titanic (Re)	T-3	Jax	5	15	4	36	2,210	1.63%
		Phx	5	11	8	42	1,351	3.11%
		Ral	7	14	8	54	1,560	3.46%
	Total		17	40	20	132	5,121	2.58%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-3 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.42x (1.065m)

 - Violent Night - 1.956x (2.15m)

 - Lost City - .817x (2.04m)

 

Titanic T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

Marlowe T-8 comps

 - Missing - .773x (587k)

 - Ambulance - .895x (626k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-10 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.77x (23.33m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .385x (13.87m)

 - Thor 4 - .668x (19.39m)

 - Eternals - 2.47x (23.5m)

 - BP2 - .602x (16.85m)

 

Jesus Revolution T-17 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.623x (991k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.387x (1.01m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-17 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.689x (2.45m)

 - Elvis - .837x (2.68m)

 - Nope - .369x (2.36m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-9	Jax	6	91	52	1,386	15,860	8.74%
		Phx	6	90	82	1,477	15,400	9.59%
		Ral	8	103	68	1,460	13,705	10.65%
	Total		20	284	202	4,323	44,965	9.61%
Cocaine Bear	T-16	Jax	6	19	4	23	2,036	1.13%
		Phx	6	15	2	40	1,980	2.02%
		Ral	7	18	0	46	1,443	3.19%
	Total		19	52	6	109	5,459	2.00%
Jesus Revolution	T-16	Jax	5	9	0	24	1,021	2.35%
		Phx	4	5	2	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	6	51	1,156	4.41%
	Total		16	25	8	94	2,799	3.36%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-15	Jax	5	11	5	239	1,021	23.41%
		Phx	5	8	0	125	850	14.71%
		Ral	8	12	3	648	1,462	44.32%
	Total		18	31	8	1,012	3,333	30.36%
Magic Mike 3	T-2	Jax	4	20	9	91	2,295	3.97%
		Phx	6	14	22	48	2,112	2.27%
		Ral	7	18	15	130	2,232	5.82%
	Total		17	52	46	269	6,639	4.05%
Marlowe	T-7	Jax	5	15	0	11	1,540	0.71%
		Phx	4	9	0	2	733	0.27%
		Ral	2	6	0	4	423	0.95%
	Total		11	30	0	17	2,696	0.63%
Titanic (Re)	T-2	Jax	5	15	7	43	2,210	1.95%
		Phx	6	16	12	54	1,636	3.30%
		Ral	7	14	11	65	1,560	4.17%
	Total		18	45	30	162	5,406	3.00%

 

Magic Mike 3 T-2 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.486x (1.11m)

 - Violent Night - 1.758x (1.93m)

 - Paradise - 1.868x (1.77m)

 - Lost City - .771x (1.93m)

 

Titanic T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .218x (698k)

 - House of Gucci - .528x (686k)

 - King Richard - .779x (1.51m)

 

I don't like any comps for this.  Very wide range of outcomes, especially with being an only 3D release.  I didn't track the Avatar re-release but that would have worked well.

 

Marlowe T-7 comps

 - Missing - .708x (538k)

 - Ambulance - .654x (458k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.063x (424k)

 - Bones and All - 1.308x (451k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .425x (319k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.76x (23.27m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .393x (14.13m)

 - Thor 4 - .674x (19.55m)

 - Eternals - 2.42x (22.94m)

 - BP2 - .606x (16.96m)

 

Jesus Revolution T-16 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.516x (926k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.362x (994k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 4.022x (7.24m)

 - Left Behind - 17.839x (10.89m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 16.03x (11.7m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-16 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.416x (2.05m)

 - Elvis - .694x (2.22m)

 - Nope - .373x (2.39m)

[filmlover]

Scream showtimes are already popping up and it looks like they're really pushing the 3D release for this thing. Uh, thanks but no thanks, I'm seeing it in 2D.

[GOGODanca]

Titanic I assume is only a one week release since ant-man will take the 3d screens?

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Scream showtimes are already popping up and it looks like they're really pushing the 3D release for this thing. Uh, thanks but no thanks, I'm seeing it in 2D.

Are they standard 3D showings?

 

Had a look at a few different cinemas here in the UK and the only 3D showings it has are 4DX, which Scream 5 also had. 
 

Wondering if it’s an American thing. 

[filmlover]

35 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Are they standard 3D showings?

 

Had a look at a few different cinemas here in the UK and the only 3D showings it has are 4DX, which Scream 5 also had. 
 

Wondering if it’s an American thing. 

Both standard and in PLF. For the latter it's mostly the last show at night that they're giving the 3D showing to (in other words, during what will be its peak business hours). They really want to have as big of an opening as possible lol.

[YM!]

6 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Early reception indicators aren’t looking great, probably closer to case B unfortunately 

Why 22? The data so far suggests 16-20m?

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Why 22? The data so far suggests 16-20m?

Not really, no. A comp being X at T-N doesn’t actually suggest the final preview will be X. I do sometimes feel like that being the main way data is displayed here can be a little misleading sometimes but there isn’t really a clean and convenient alternative so I get why it has (and will continue to) persist.  

Edited February 7, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania 

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken Feb 7)

Vancouver BC

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	1147	2345	3492	0.3284
	Fri	3	21	900	3273	4392	0.2049

[Factcheck]

I think MoM should be the best quorum comp for QM if it gets B+ cinemascore like MoM(which was close to A- than B). With B+ score and 70% final awareness DS2 did 411M, so QM with current 48% awareness should be sitting at 281M +/-5%, it would need 56-60% final awareness to come close to 350M. Just my calculation.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Factcheck

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Not really, no. A comp being X at T-N doesn’t actually suggest the final preview will be X. I do sometimes feel like that being the main way data is displayed here can be a little misleading sometimes but there isn’t really a clean and convenient alternative so I get why it has (and will continue to) persist.  

I agree with your point about how daily spot checks can be misleading, especially when comparing titles of varying size/early hype. This is why I started aggregating the chart, because it shows both comp value and relative trajectory over time 

 

But also think these higher, mid-$20s expected values are based too heavily in the OD sales, and not the however many days of data that have come after,  and aren’t really showing the kind of steady increase needed to get to that level without a very strong finishing kick. A Shang-Chi level final week of growth from a higher baseline but (apparently) weaker reviews just does not seem likely to me

[Tinalera]

Been not on for a week, and admittedly haven't caught up on all posts, but just wondering what the feelings were here about AMC and their premiere pricing for shows/times of day they're talking about? Just wondering what type of effect this will/wont have in regards to our tracking. Im going to have to see about Cineplex if theyre going see how AMC goes and start emulating it.