The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[tonytr87]

Creed III - 45 mil

Scream VI - 40 mil

Shazam - 35 mil

 

 

[DAJK]

Just responding to a few ideas over the last couple pages. 

 

Scream I honestly feel like is going to be the biggest March opener (hot take?) 48M opening vs 45M for Wick 4. 

 

Dungeons and Dragons, if it ends up being good, I could see being one of those "does better than expected but is still a flop given the budget" movies. Something like 100M domestic 350M worldwide. 

 

Mario ain't touching 100M OW anymore lol. 100M 5-day though looks good.

[WrathOfHan]

38-40M for Creed per Deadilne

 

https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-creed-iii-michael-b-jordan-1235275006/ 

[Ronin46]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

38-40M for Creed per Deadilne

 

https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-creed-iii-michael-b-jordan-1235275006/ 

 

Just take the 5M extra they gave to ANTM3 and add it to Creed 3 and thats more likely I think.

[CJohn]

I am starting to smell a breakout for DnD. It premieres at SXSW and it seems Paramount is incredibly confident in it. It also had a Big Game spot. Very curious to see how that one does.

[Mulder]

nvm

Edited March 13, 2023 by Mulder
Just in case

[Brainbug]

On 3/1/2023 at 1:37 AM, Mulder said:

edited.

 

As a year long DnD player myself, i smelled trouble for the movie as soon as i realized that i have no desire to see it lol

Edited March 14, 2023 by Brainbug

[Menor the Destroyer]

D&D just screams bomb to me. I don't think there is any significant anticipation for it. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/27/2023 at 7:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-17

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	86	2489	3.4%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
5	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-17

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	16	1780	0.89%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-16

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
15	99	2759	3.5%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
13	1

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-16

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	16	1780	0.89%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

Cinemark is just completely dead. AMC numbers are being carried by Disney Springs showings. I might start tracking Regal in Orlando, since Cinemark is so stagnant 

[keysersoze123]

Demon Slayer definitely hitting double digits even if its frontloaded. Presales for friday is uber strong. 

 

Demon Slayer Friday MTC1 - 39338/261043 577077.72 1765 shows

 

 

[Firepower]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

Scream I honestly feel like is going to be the biggest March opener (hot take?) 48M opening vs 45M for Wick 4. 

If Wick 4 reception is great, it should at least match JW3, the buzz is there.

[GOGODanca]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer definitely hitting double digits even if its frontloaded. Presales for friday is uber strong. 

 

Demon Slayer Friday MTC1 - 39338/261043 577077.72 1765 shows

 

 

A double digit opening for an episode thats free to watch in 2 months, this franchise is the marvel equivalent of anime 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer definitely hitting double digits even if its frontloaded. Presales for friday is uber strong. 

 

Demon Slayer Friday MTC1 - 39338/261043 577077.72 1765 shows

 

 

Anime has blown up in the States over the past 10 years. I expect anime to grow even more

[Menor the Destroyer]

Btw, Creed 3 has an Atom deal today. So numbers today will be inflated. 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

D&D just screams bomb to me. I don't think there is any significant anticipation for it. 

Paramount has been pretty aggressive in their promotion for it though and the fact they're taking it to SXSW as the opening night movie three weeks before release (taking a page from Ready Player One, another geek-friendly late March aspiring blockbuster that bowed there) indicates there's at least some level of confidence in it. That movie's run is almost certainly the absolute ceiling for this even if it gets solid reviews, but as the last PG-13 title with blockbuster aspirations until Guardians 3 (and with Shazam 2 looking more like a complete nonevent each day), managing a run in which it eeks past $100M total would probably make the studio satisfied (especially when the previous expensive big screen attempt at this IP flopped something ugly 23 years ago) even if it doesn't mark the beginning of a potential new franchise.

[keysersoze123]

Demon Slayer MTC2 OD - 36692/179915 449652.60 1448 shows

 

LOL this is ridiculous. Now I think its lock to finish in Top 2 ahead of Ant 3. @Menor Reborn any comps/ideas as to what this could mean. I am expecting not great walkups but presales is looking uber strong at both MTC. 

 

@Inceptionzq Any chance can you do one time run for Demon Slayer at Megaplex/Drafthouse. 

[charlie Jatinder]

nvm

Edited March 1, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Demon Slayer MTC2 OD - 36692/179915 449652.60 1448 shows

 

LOL this is ridiculous. Now I think its lock to finish in Top 2 ahead of Ant 3. @Menor Reborn any comps/ideas as to what this could mean. I am expecting not great walkups but presales is looking uber strong at both MTC. 

 

@Inceptionzq Any chance can you do one time run for Demon Slayer at Megaplex/Drafthouse. 

I didn't track the last Demon Slayer (plus the ratios back then were super different). I have MHA from October 2021, it seems to have similar sales to that one (32305 Monday night/35433 Tuesday night) which did around 2.8m Friday in the end. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Lightly scrolling through some of Tampa/Orlando showings for Demon slayer...and yeah it's going bonkers 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Demon Slayer opening weekend>Ant-Man 3's third weekend?