The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-8 Thursday(271 showings): 11534(+359)/38704 ATP: $15.84

0.857x Thor L&T T-8 (24.84M)

0.629x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (22.65M)

 

T-9 Friday(352 showings): 10494(+437)/51109 ATP: $15.60

0.914x Thor L&T T-9 (37.05M)

0.631x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (34.50M)

 

T-10 Saturday(361 showings): 10680(+410)/52421 ATP: $14.96

0.983x Thor L&T T-10 (41.39M)

0.614x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (35.50M)

 

T-11 Sunday(327 showings): 5181(+263)/48008 ATP: $14.22

0.856x Thor L&T T-11 (27.82M)

0.581x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (22.58M)

Just want to note that at present, the daily sales pattern for this sample is as frontloaded as MoM and NWH at same point, behind BPWF, and ahead of Thor

 

Holiday Sunday will help, but based on the math I'm working on (not quite ready for public inspection), expecting IM to fall more in the ~5.5x range, unless those Fri & Sat numbers kick up a fair amount over the final week like Batman

[GOGODanca]

12 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 11 million

 

Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)

Paramount Pictures

$8,200,000

$8,200,000

~1,800

NEW

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/super-bowl-weekend-box-office-forecast-magic-mikes-last-dance-and-titanics-25th-anniversary-re-issue-will-try-to-counter-the-big-game/

 

Since, $8.2M avg on 1800 locs - how much more on remaining 600 locs as mentioned by Deadline (2400 locs)

extra 2.73m

[M37]

16 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

extra 2.73m

No, it’s definitely not linear. Those next 600 theaters are further down the distribution, will have a lower PTA - there’s a reason they were skipped for Avatar 3D rerelease - so maybe another $1-$1.5M

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just want to note that at present, the daily sales pattern for this sample is as frontloaded as MoM and NWH at same point, behind BPWF, and ahead of Thor

 

Holiday Sunday will help, but based on the math I'm working on (not quite ready for public inspection), expecting IM to fall more in the ~5.5x range, unless those Fri & Sat numbers kick up a fair amount over the final week like Batman

if you want MTC1 data to estimate. 

Friday - 108939/1254566 1956430.07 6621 shows

Saturday - 99066/1340415 1645045.10 7081 shows

Sunday - 43826/1307290 715643.56 6894 shows

 

This is all as of yesterday. Sunday probably earlier in the day, fri/sat in the evening. Pace wise Friday/Sat are close to previews at this point. 

[vafrow]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think just track day 1 of Fast X for sake of it then start around T-30/25 days or so, give it random check in between.

I'd be curious to see how it does 24 hours after the Superbowl. I'm curious to know what a $5M ad buys you in terms of ticket sales.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you want MTC1 data to estimate. 

Friday - 108939/1254566 1956430.07 6621 shows

Saturday - 99066/1340415 1645045.10 7081 shows

Sunday - 43826/1307290 715643.56 6894 shows

 

This is all as of yesterday. Sunday probably earlier in the day, fri/sat in the evening. Pace wise Friday/Sat are close to previews at this point. 

So that's from the same run as like ~160K for Thursday right?

 

Now different chains surely will sell differently and so change the math, and I'm sure Drafthouse is more pre-sale heavy, but that' even worse.

 

For comparison, (only because I happened to be on that page) here's your run for Batman at MTC2 on this same T-8, where TruTh and Fri were basically even

 

 

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fast X	T-98	Jax	5	51	0	0	7,530	0.00%
		Phx	5	19	1	1	3,083	0.03%
		Ral	6	36	16	16	6,527	0.25%
	Total		16	106	17	17	17,140	0.10%
Scream VI	T-28	Jax	5	22	48	48	2,910	1.65%
		Phx	5	15	96	96	2,792	3.44%
		Ral	8	33	73	73	4,211	1.73%
	Total		18	70	217	217	9,913	2.19%

 

Just setting up my sheets for Fast X.  Cinemark and Regal have pretty full sets up already, but AMC is mostly one or two shows per theater.

 

Scream VI T-28 comps

 - Nope - 1.247x (7.98m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 6.576x (9.53m)

 

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Shall I be the one to mention that Scream VI also has a special fan event this year? ❤️

 

https://www.fandango.com/scream-vi-3d-fan-event-2023-231043/movie-overview

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, M37 said:

So that's from the same run as like ~160K for Thursday right?

 

Now different chains surely will sell differently and so change the math, and I'm sure Drafthouse is more pre-sale heavy, but that' even worse.

 

For comparison, (only because I happened to be on that page) here's your run for Batman at MTC2 on this same T-8, where TruTh and Fri were basically even

 

 

 

This is a bad comparison. MTC2 is more Friday heavy compared to MTC1, and Batman EA had a pretty big chunk of sales. Thor 4 at the same/similar time (believe it was T-7) was 143k Fri vs 248k Thu, for example. Sat ratio is also better than pretty much all the MCU comps. I'm expecting Fri around 1.6x Thu with a Sat bump of maybe 15% and this seems fairly consistent with that imo.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

So that's from the same run as like ~160K for Thursday right?

 

Now different chains surely will sell differently and so change the math, and I'm sure Drafthouse is more pre-sale heavy, but that' even worse.

 

For comparison, (only because I happened to be on that page) here's your run for Batman at MTC2 on this same T-8, where TruTh and Fri were basically even

 

 

 

165K by yesterday evening. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

This is a bad comparison. MTC2 is more Friday heavy compared to MTC1, and Batman EA had a pretty big chunk of sales. 

Feb 7 night finish of Friday MTC2 - 74083/956505 1009815.64 6081 shows. 

 

its roughly at 80% of thursday. Definitely better than MTC1. 

 

Edit: Its easier to consider just Bats thursday gross. I would say EA around 4M and rest for thursday. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

its hard to project OW at this point as things could dramatically change in final week, but as I posted in other OW contest thread, I see OW closer to 110m than 130m. That said nothing is off the table at this point. 

[misterpepp]

Shazam 2 tickets will be available on 2/16

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos what's your limit of tracking? I think you should check Scream. Very strong start in Harkins. 1st day 50% higher than H3 despite opening sales much early. Need to see if it can maintain tho.

 

*does an amazingly FAST and unofficial count locally*

*cross compares it with NOPE's T-29 data [which had been on sale for two weeks at this point]*

 

HMMMMMMMMM.....

 

Watch this space (busy this exact moment) - say 45-60 minutes from now.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Porthos

[Boxofficerules]

Scream VIs Wednesday night double are almost completely sold out at my local, I’d post an image but not sure how to post one here.

[european1992]

Scream VI does feel like a big deal for now but lets never forget that Scream 4 was estimated a 50M opening and ended up doing less than 20M. 

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, european1992 said:

Scream VI does feel like a big deal for now but lets never forget that Scream 4 was estimated a 50M opening and ended up doing less than 20M. 

It's been 12 years.

[GOGODanca]

i wonder if this is kind of a suped up version of DWD where the jenna ortega fans rush to buy tickets initially kind of like styles fans did or if this really is gonna be a mega opener

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

This is a bad comparison. MTC2 is more Friday heavy compared to MTC1, and Batman EA had a pretty big chunk of sales. Thor 4 at the same time was 148k Fri vs 248k Thu, for example. Sat ratio is also better than pretty much all the MCU comps. I'm expecting Fri around 1.6x Thu with a Sat bump of maybe 15% and this seems fairly consistent with that imo.

Like I said, I only mentioned it because it was staring at me on the page I was on, and every sample will have different baseline ratios 

 

The method I hinted at is still a work in progress, but fwiw I would take the under on that Thur/Fri ratio based on current sales and where I expect them to be by T-0 (though not by too much)

[filmlover]

Scream is getting the PLF screens all day near me that weekend. Looks like 65 won't be much of a threat for screen space.

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, Magic Eric said:

It's been 12 years.

You missed the opportunity