Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

26 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

You need to remember the 1st avatar got a 79% on rt. I do expect it to be fresh but not as high as the 1st

 

????

 

Black Panther 2 is nowhere near as high as the 1st in any critical capacity. 

[4815162342]

4 hours ago, Reddroast said:

I guess we can lock in BPWF for a nomination over avatar 2

 

 

 

No I don't think we can

[stripe]

15 hours ago, Reddroast said:

You need to remember the 1st avatar got a 79% on rt. I do expect it to be fresh but not as high as the 1st

 

 

If I remember right, Avatar had a better score than 79% at rt the year it opened. Many critics praised it at the moment.
Anyways, this is the kind of movie that didn't get nommed because of reviews but because of its cultural relevance, its technical novelty & its unprecedented BO.

This can very well happen again with Avatar 2. The fact that Avatar 2 will be screened a month before the opening its a signal of strong confidence about the quality of the film.

 

[filmlover]

The original Avatar was very clearly a Top 5 contender. The sequel is naturally going to be taken more seriously as a possible contender.

[stripe]

My predictions, updated. Bolded the nominees

 

Solid chances (praised and/or succesful films)

• Fabelmans
• Banshees of Inisherin
• EEAAO
• Maverick
• Women Talking

Possible (already seen movies with noticeable buzz)

• Bones and All (but given its genre, it needs GA support)
• Tàr
• Elvis
• The Whale (but will it only be seen as an acting vehicle?)
• Triangle of sadness (is it too niche for AMPAS?)
• Black Panther Wakanda Forever (but too many sequels, needed stronger buzz)
• All quiet on the Western Front (Foreign and praised. Netflix visibility. Growing chances)
• Pinochio (great reviews but animation can hurt its chances)
• Living (British and well respected, but enough supporters)
• Decision to Leave (Foreign films are more common in BP race, watch out)

Unseen but potential game changers

• Babylon
• Avatar: The way of water
• I wanna dance with somebody

 

Extremely dificult (already seen, not geting enough traction)

• Armageddon Time
• The son
• Empire of Light
• White Noise
• She said
• Knives Out 2 (too light?)
• The Woman King
• Till (but weak BO)

 

Alt. All quiet on the western front

 

Elvis momentum seems to fade, but I still see too many things that will help to get that BP nom: Actor contender, huge hit, biopic, visually gorgeous, Luhrman devotes...

The Whale has best actor frontrunner. In last 10 years, Best Actor winner always had his movie with a BP nom.

Tàr has now the momentum, but lets see if it can mantain it in the next months, besides Blanchett asured nomination. I feel there is a spot for Tàr or Triangle of Sadness.

If there is a Foreign language film nommed, it will be either All quiet on the western front or Decision to Leave.

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 11/8/2022 at 3:43 PM, Reddroast said:

You need to remember the 1st avatar got a 79% on rt. I do expect it to be fresh but not as high as the 1st

 

 

after years of shitty blogs who saw the movie on their laptops and whose main complaint was that the movie was "pocahontas in space" dragging down the score, pretty sure it was at 95% back in december 09

Edited November 14, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:32 AM, filmlover said:

The original Avatar was very clearly a Top 5 contender. The sequel is naturally going to be taken more seriously as a possible contender.

 top 2, winning best drama and best director at the golden globes does that to you

Edited November 14, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Jake Gittes]

3 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

after years of shitty blogs who saw the movie on their laptops and whose main complaint was that the movie was "pocahontas in space" dragging down the score, pretty sure it was at 95% back in december 09

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20091229172645/http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/avatar/

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20091229172645/http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/avatar/

Thank you for the link. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20091229172645/http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/avatar/

https://web.archive.org/web/20100208112852/http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/avatar/?critic=creamcrop

 

Was at 94-95% with "top critics", not with "all critics", was misremembering

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Cmasterclay]

Coolio made a joke about it earlier but seriously - given Babylon is divisive, the Son is a disaster, and Aftersun is so small, could Jim Parsons actually snag the fifth Actor spot here? His notices are good and the movie is the exact kind of audience-friendly tearjerker the Academy will prefer over critic groups.

[TMP]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Coolio made a joke about it earlier but seriously - given Babylon is divisive, the Son is a disaster, and Aftersun is so small, could Jim Parsons actually snag the fifth Actor spot here? His notices are good and the movie is the exact kind of audience-friendly tearjerker the Academy will prefer over critic groups.

cruise

[Maggie]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Coolio made a joke about it earlier but seriously - given Babylon is divisive, the Son is a disaster, and Aftersun is so small, could Jim Parsons actually snag the fifth Actor spot here? His notices are good and the movie is the exact kind of audience-friendly tearjerker the Academy will prefer over critic groups.

I think it's possible.  The role looks like something the Academy would like. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in

 

45 minutes ago, TMP said:

cruise

lol no. the last acting nom in a summer movie was Depp in Pirates and that was one hell of a performance.

[WittyUsername]

Babylon looks like it might be a no at this point on the Best Picture front. TGM is more likely. It’ll be interesting to see if Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 can also score nominations. 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Coolio made a joke about it earlier but seriously - given Babylon is divisive, the Son is a disaster, and Aftersun is so small, could Jim Parsons actually snag the fifth Actor spot here? His notices are good and the movie is the exact kind of audience-friendly tearjerker the Academy will prefer over critic groups.

Waiting to see what his and the movie’s actual reviews look like first but I can totally see him being this year’s Golden Globe nominee (especially with Actor Musical/Comedy not looking especially packed with contenders) who gets in nowhere else. I think for now the only thing I would pencil the movie in as a possible contender in is Adapted Screenplay.

[WrathOfHan]

So we're up to 3 known fringe spots now with Babylon's reception? Lord. Maybe Elvis and The Whale are safe; let's see how Jimbo pans out.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I still think Babylon will make BP. Every year there's a latebreaking film with divisive reception and still cracks the lineup. Hell, Elvis is doing that now. Wolf reception was similar and while this lacks Scorsese + Leo... Chazelle + Pitt + Margot is not a bad trio. Globes will revive it with half a dozen nominations, divisiveness means passion which helps with noms, and there's certainly enough industry flash

 

I feel good still with

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Women Talking

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. TAR

6. Babylon

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Elvis- possibly winning Best Actor + WB's pony + strong box office + audience support

9. The Whale- possibly winning Best Actor + not A24's priority but apparently is crowdpleasing + rooting factor

10. Avatar- can't doubt Cameron + will be the talk of the town come Christmas

 

I love The Fabelmans and dislike Everything Everywhere. Gut says Everything Everywhere is winning BP... it's the type of film that wins Screenplay, it can win potentially 2 acting oscars (Screenplay+Acting is a near undeniable combo). SAG has gone to the most diverse, broadly appealing film as of late which this cast is... how can Fabelmans compete? Yes, it's more consensus overall than Everything (the A24 film will struggle a bit with older audiences and international voters) and Spielberg probably wins Directing now, but.. it lacks the social importance typical of BP. And despite TIFF, IMO it's not as broadly crowdpleasing as Green Book or CODA.. it's not a saccharine film surprisingly. It's intimate.

[stripe]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I still think Babylon will make BP. Every year there's a latebreaking film with divisive reception and still cracks the lineup. Hell, Elvis is doing that now. Wolf reception was similar and while this lacks Scorsese + Leo... Chazelle + Pitt + Margot is not a bad trio. Globes will revive it with half a dozen nominations, divisiveness means passion which helps with noms, and there's certainly enough industry flash

 

I feel good still with

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Women Talking

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. TAR

6. Babylon

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Elvis- possibly winning Best Actor + WB's pony + strong box office + audience support

9. The Whale- possibly winning Best Actor + not A24's priority but apparently is crowdpleasing + rooting factor

10. Avatar- can't doubt Cameron + will be the talk of the town come Christmas

 

I love The Fabelmans and dislike Everything Everywhere. Gut says Everything Everywhere is winning BP... it's the type of film that wins Screenplay, it can win potentially 2 acting oscars (Screenplay+Acting is a near undeniable combo). SAG has gone to the most diverse, broadly appealing film as of late which this cast is... how can Fabelmans compete? Yes, it's more consensus overall than Everything (the A24 film will struggle a bit with older audiences and international voters) and Spielberg probably wins Directing now, but.. it lacks the social importance typical of BP. And despite TIFF, IMO it's not as broadly crowdpleasing as Green Book or CODA.. it's not a saccharine film surprisingly. It's intimate.

 

I agree. Babylon looks to be polarizing, but that didnt hurt other BP. Last year's Don't Look Up is another great example. As important to quality is to generate conversation, and Babylon looks like it will generate a lot of debate/buzz.

It will also benefit from a late December opening so the film will be fresh in AMPAS minds at the right time.

We have the same predictions!

[SLAM!]

Sunset Circle Award Nominations

 

Top Films of 2022

Aftersun

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Menu

RRR

She Said

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

 

Best Director

Todd Field (TAR)

Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Park Chan-work (Decision to Leave)

Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)

 

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis)

Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Colin Farrell (Banshees of Inisherin)

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (TAR)

Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

Mia Goth (Pearl and X)

Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)

Michelle Yeah (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin)

Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Michael Ward (Empire of Light)

 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Claire Foy (Women Talking)

Hong Chau (The Menu and The Whale)

Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)

Carey Mulligan (She Said)

 

Best Ensemble

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Menu

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

 

Best Screenplay

Decision to Leave

The Menu

She Said

TAR

Women Talking

 

Best Cinematography

Bardo

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

TAR

 

Best Score

The Batman

Bones and All

Empire of Light

Pinocchio

Women Talking

 

Best Editing

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Moonage Daydream

RRR

Top Gun: Maverick

 

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Athena

Decision to Leave

Holy Spider

RRR

 

Scene Stealer

Jennifer Ehle (She Said)

Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

David Lynch (The Fabelmans)

Brad Pitt (The Lost City)

Taylor Swift (Amsterdam)

[filmlover]

Saw She Said over the weekend and happy to see a shoutout for Jennifer Ehle, who is really moving in the movie. Don't see it getting in for anything besides Adapted Screenplay though: it's a very good piece of media on this particular topic, but I can see the fact it takes a rather clinical approach to the subject turning off plenty of voters as opposed to something more emotional and Hollywood-y and easy to embrace. Same with any acting nominations, Mulligan's had some buzz (even if her placement is blatant category fraud, she's definitely a co-lead) but I don't see her happening even with Supporting Actress being as dead as it is since it's a quiet performance without any obvious "clip" moments.

 

For now I'm thinking:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale (I guess? I dunno)

Women Talking

 

Definitely an unpredictable year where we won't get an idea about what will be nominated in the end until the precursors begin.