2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Factcheck]

30 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

So the Aquaman is going to go up by $200M and the Captain Marvel sequel is going to go down by $200M....

 

Christmas plus no big competition unlike July 2022. There are other reasons too for The Marvels to drop by 200M. 1. A lot of competition in July

2. No endgame type bump

3. A lot of people think 1st one was average, so sins of CM will have an impact.

4. Captain Marvel is not an established character in MCU at present, had just 5 min cameo in Endgame.

5. Some people might skip the movie as they have stupid hate for the character or not interested in the character, I encountered one at WF thread who said CM2 will be the 1st mcu movie I won't watch. Ms marvel views also prove that they exist.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Factcheck

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Christmas plus no big competition unlike July 2022. There are other reasons too for The Marvels to drop by 200M. 1. A lot of competition in July

2. No endgame type bump

3. A lot of people think 1st one was average, so sins of CM will have an impact.

4. Captain Marvel is not an established character in MCU at present, had just 5 min cameo in Endgame.

5. Some people might skip the movie as they have stupid hate for the character or not interested in the character, I encountered one at WF thread who said CM2 will be the 1st mcu movie I won't watch. Ms marvel views also prove that they exist.

 

The first Aquaman had Christmas and no major competition. I see absolutely zero reason why the sequel would jump up by 65%.

 

As for The Marvels they will definitely drop but you're talking about an MCU sequel dropping over 55%. To date, the biggest direct sequel drop in the MCU was AOU from TA1 @ 27%. I think a 25-35% drop is more likely for The Marvels. 

 

[filmlover]

I'm still not entirely convinced The Marvels is coming out at the end of July, especially when Oppenheimer is likely contracted for a few weeks of IMAX play because of Nolan.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm still not entirely convinced The Marvels is coming out at the end of July, especially when Oppenheimer is likely contracted for a few weeks of IMAX play because of Nolan.

 

Would IMAX really chose Nolan over the MCU if they had to make a choice? Seems unlikely. 

 

[Eric Duncan]

36 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

 

I basically agree with 8 of these (+/- 10% maybe?) but I think Dune 2 and Barbie are each $100M too high.

Imma be real with you and say that my Dune prediction is half-based on Timothee-related horniness 🙃. Still optimistic on those two breaking out highly tho

[filmlover]

Just now, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

Would IMAX really chose Nolan over the MCU if they had to make a choice? Seems unlikely. 

 

I dunno, Nolan does seem to have developed quite the ego (see: the reports of the fallout between him and WB over Tenet's release) nor do I imagine IMAX would want to lose that special partnership they have, so we shall see. 

[Factcheck]

10 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

 

The first Aquaman had Christmas and no major competition. I see absolutely zero reason why the sequel would jump up by 65%.

 

As for The Marvels they will definitely drop but you're talking about an MCU sequel dropping over 55%. To date, the biggest direct sequel drop in the MCU was AOU from TA1 @ 27%. I think a 25-35% drop is more likely for The Marvels. 

 

Aquaman had competition- Spider verse, Mary Poppins, Bumblebee, The Mule. These movies combinedly did 600M approx plus there were other movies too.

[VENOM]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I dunno, Nolan does seem to have developed quite the ego (see: the reports of the fallout between him and WB over Tenet's release) nor do I imagine IMAX would want to lose that special partnership they have, so we shall see. 

Yeah all of a sudden Nolan has developed an ego.. sounds legit /s

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Eric Carey said:

1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M

2. The Little Mermaid: 435M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M

4. Mario: 375M

5. Aquaman 2: 350M

6. Ant-Man 3: 325M

7. Dune Part Two: 300M 

8. The Marvels: 280M

9. Barbie: 270M

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M

I feel The Marvels is more likely on 300m than Ant Man tbh.

 

I am also iffy on SpiderVerse doing 250m, especially when squashed between Mermaid and the June stuff that competes with all its target demographics.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Aquaman had competition- Spider verse, Mary Poppins, Bumblebee, The Mule. These movies combinedly did 600M approx plus there were other movies too.

Ghostbusters 2 or is it 4 (even though the series as whole hasn’t been good), Illumination’s Migration, and Wonka should also equally 600m, likely even exceed it.

[YM!]

1. Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $215m/$500m
3. The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m
4. Aquaman 2 - $90m/$380m
5. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$360m
6. The Marvels - $135m/$325m
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $105m/$120m/$295m
8. Blue Beetle - $80m/$245m
9. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m
10. Dune Part 2 - $80m/$240m

Potential 200m+ hitters:

Im thinking Fantastic Beasts numbers for Hunger Games and 200-225m for Wonka. Out of all the animation, Illumination has become the biggest brand at the box office so Migration seems likely for 200m. Trolls 3 could do 200m as could Wish (Wish is Disney’s only tentpole this holiday and 100th year thing so I think they’ll push it). Across the SpiderVerse is in a situation where it will get fucked over by all sides because the nostalgic toy commercials are too strong but we will see if the love of the first is strong enough. Elemental could do well but whenever Disney does a six week sandwich of film release, the one in the middle gets fucked. Flash depends on how much the Ezra stuff will hurt, it could do sub 200m or 300m+ and neither would surprise me. Barbie reminds me of Detective Pikachu and WB is incompetent at selling family films (cause in point being Pikachu and all of the WAG movies). Oppenheimer seems more of a 100m hitter and with The Marvels so close I imagine a Matrix 4 situation where Oppenheimer just gets IMAX and The Marvels takes all other PLFs and then IMAX after the week is over.

Edited November 5, 2022 by YM!

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, Factcheck said:

Aquaman 2 550M(Christmas release date/no big competition)

Um... Wonka? Ghostbusters?

[Factcheck]

5 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Um... Wonka? Ghostbusters?

Ghostbusters 100-130M. Wonka 100-150M

[poweranimals]

The first Ghostbusters made $129M and the new one should make more than that. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory made $200 million in 2005. I'd say there's a good chance Wonka could break out if it's well received.

Edited November 5, 2022 by poweranimals

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

The first Ghostbusters made $129M and the new one should make more than that. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory made $200 million in 2005. I'd say there's a good chance this new one could break out if it's well received.

Ghostbusters seems like the least appealing of the four (Aquaman, Migration and Wonka) and has always been something that no one really cares about except those nostalgic about Halloween memories. I’m not expecting too much more than 350m WW.

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, Factcheck said:

Aquaman 2 550M(Christmas release date/no big competition)

The Marvels 180-200M

The Flash 330M( because of Batman)

Rest Agree

Let me have what your having.

 

TDK DC's most iconic film is at 535m unadjusted.

 

No fucking way is Aquaman 2 is coming close to that.

 

Marvelsv will make 75-100m less than the first.

 

Updated top 5

 

TLM 450-500M(150M  4 day)

Guardians 450M( 170M)

Mario.  -435M (125M)

Indy.   385-425M(155M)

Aquaman 2  350M(115M)

 

[jedijake]

Indiana Jones 5 over $500 million domestic??? What?????

 

I love Indy, but it will be lucky to make much over $320 million domestic.

 

And Aqua2 will probably make in that range also, even with the holiday release date.

Edited November 5, 2022 by jedijake

[poweranimals]

Just now, YM! said:

Ghostbusters seems like the least appealing of the four (Aquaman, Migration and Wonka) and has always been something that no one really cares about except those nostalgic about Halloween memories. I’m not expecting too much more than 350m WW.

I know Ghostbusters isn't as popular as it used to be but Afterlife was really well liked. It's actually the 2nd highest physical media release in 2022 after NWH.

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Indiana Jones 5 over $500 million domestic??? What?????

 

I love Indy, but it will be lucky to make much over $320 million domestic.

 

And Aqua2 will probably make in that range also, even with the holiday release date.

 

Idk if I'm in the $500M camp, but even Crystal Skull made an inflation adjusting $440M and it was poorly received. I doubt Indy 5 can pull off a TGM but it can definitely hit $500M if it has good WOM. 

[Factcheck]

15 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Let me have what your having.

 

TDK DC's most iconic film is at 535m unadjusted.

 

No fucking way is Aquaman 2 is coming close to that.

 

Marvelsv will make 75-100m less than the first.

 

Updated top 5

 

TLM 450-500M(150M  4 day)

Guardians 450M( 170M)

Mario.  -435M (125M)

Indy.   385-425M(155M)

Aquaman 2  350M(115M)

 

Aquaman inflation adjusted box office will be $400-430M in Dec 2023. I think Aquaman 2 with less competition compared to 1st one can do 500M+.