2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Eric the Fall Guy]

20 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Indiana Jones 5 over $500 million domestic??? What?????

 

I love Indy, but it will be lucky to make much over $320 million domestic.

 

And Aqua2 will probably make in that range also, even with the holiday release date.

I already explained this many times before, but Indy has everything going for it. 80s nostalgia/legacy sequel premise, iconic brand that's still super popular, Harrison Ford returning to his most iconic role, the Disney marketing machine, a dynamite cast, these kinds adventure movies generating solid business recently and James Mangold directing, who I feel has a better understanding on what modern audiences want in blockbusters compared to Spielberg (not a diss of course, Spielberg will always be the GOAT). Plus this the 15-year gap between this and Crystal Skull is perfect. Long enough where the bad taste of the last film has gone away and long enough where people feel the nostalgia bug again. Plus despite poor audience reception, Crystal Skull still adjusts to 405M in today's money. 320M would frankly be a 20% fall from admissions. That just doesn't feel right to me.

 

Also scrolling down a little bit, but the new Ghostbusters film will do fine. I couldn't stand Afterlife, but the fanbase was into it, the franchise is still popular, and WOM was pretty solid. They won't have the nostalgia hook, but that's canceled out by Christmas legs. It should at least match the first movie. May even outgross it.

[filmlover]

The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance.

[cookie]

I don't want to dare to dream $500m just yet, but if they do go out of their way to sell Indy 5 as Ford's last adventure, then I can see it be really big. In Mangold, I trust.

Edited November 5, 2022 by cookie

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance.

In fact I just checked their schedule and this is what their 2023 looks like:

 

2/17: Ant-Man

5/5: Guardians 3

5/26: The Little Mermaid

6/16: Elemental

6/30: Indiana Jones

7/28: The Marvels

8/11: Haunted Mansion

9/15: A Haunting in Venice

10/6: True Love

11/22: Wish

 

Yeah...they clearly didn't think that Blade was gonna be hit with production setbacks. Honestly might be worth it to go bold and put The Marvels around Christmas and see how everybody else reacts to the move. Their summer slate will be fine without it given how stacked it already is.

[Juby]

On 11/5/2022 at 3:09 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M

2. The Little Mermaid: 435M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M

4. Mario: 375M

5. Aquaman 2: 350M

6. Ant-Man 3: 325M

7. Dune Part Two: 300M 

8. The Marvels: 280M

9. Barbie: 270M

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M

 

No Mission: Impossible 7 after great reception of the last one and TGM success? Not even $251m DOM (= less admission than 5 out of 6 films so far)? I think You're wrong.

 

On 11/5/2022 at 5:13 PM, YM! said:

1. Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $215m/$500m
3. The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m
4. Aquaman 2 - $90m/$380m
5. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$360m
6. The Marvels - $135m/$325m
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $105m/$120m/$295m
8. Blue Beetle - $80m/$245m
9. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m
10. Dune Part 2 - $80m/$240m

 

105/245 for Mission: Impossible? What?! These movies always have great legs, these are X3: The Last Stand numbers.

Blue Beetle at $245m while Black Adam (also DC origin story, but with huge star - Dwayne Johnson) will be lucky to finish with $170m...

 

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

I mean I'm still thinking around 240M for Mission: Impossible, which is still a solid increase from Fallout.

 

But the thing with me is that Mission: Impossible is already very established and people already know whether they like these movies or not and whether they will check it out. With Top Gun, all you needed was seeing the original movie to get up to speed. And even then, it was designed where you didn't have to see the first film to get what's going on. By this point, everybody knows about Mission: Impossible, what's in it, and whether they want to see it or not. It's a bigger hurdle to get casuals invested in yet another sequel, especially since, at least so far, this looks to be more of the same that people expect and are familiar with. Only way you can really boost interest further is if you got a major star on the level of Cruise in the movie, like Denzel as the bad guy or whatever, but that's not what they are doing here.

 

Anecdotal, but I took my parents to see Top Gun: Maverick and they absolutely loved it. But I probably won't take them to Dead Reckoning because they never watched the other Mission: Impossible movies and they don't really have a strong urge to. That means something.

[Verrows]

On 11/5/2022 at 11:57 AM, filmlover said:

The 2023 schedule as it is, at least from June on, almost certainly isn't final and I expect there will be date changes. I doubt Disney ends their year with Wish on Thanksgiving weekend, for instance.

Really? Why not? Thanksgiving Walt Disney Animation films are a fairly long standing tradition. 

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, Verrows said:

Really? Why not? Thanksgiving Walt Disney Animation films are a fairly long standing tradition. 

I think they mean they don’t think Wish will be Disney’s final film of 2023. 

[YM!]

6 hours ago, Juby said:

Blue Beetle at $245m while Black Adam (also DC origin story, but with huge star - Dwayne Johnson) will be lucky to finish with $170m...

The key difference is I expect Blue Beetle to look good and be a good movie.

[Verrows]

17 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I think they mean they don’t think Wish will be Disney’s final film of 2023. 

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks.

[Juby]

On 11/9/2022 at 3:20 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

I mean I'm still thinking around 240M for Mission: Impossible, which is still a solid increase from Fallout.

That won't be an increace at all. Average ticket price for Fallout in 2018 was probably around $10, for DR1 will be close to $13. Even the same admission should put the next instalment at around $285m.

[El Gato]

On 11/9/2022 at 12:27 PM, YM! said:

The key difference is I expect Blue Beetle to look good and be a good movie.

Judging by recent test screenings and their descriptions (Spiderverse + Iron Man), I think your expectations will be met. I’m expecting a good time and comedy gold from Xolo/George Lopez interacting. 

[Verrows]

Probably been talked about a lot already but I just can't get over the Summer 2023 gamut starting in 6 months.

 

Just be default there are going to be several PERCEIVED underperformers. That and we also know the schedule will not remain as is. But still.... Going to need to take out a loan for the amount of movie tickets I'm going to be buying.

[Grebacio]

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Edited December 26, 2022 by Grebacio

[IronJimbo]

Avatar 3 with $1.3b domestic in #1

Guardians volume 3 at #2

little merdmiad #3

[CaptNathanBrittles]

People are out of their minds if they think ANT-MAN 3 is coming close to $300m. Even with IW/EG tie-in and hype ANT-MAN 2 could only muster $215m. 😄

Edited November 29, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles

[Asyulus]

deleted

Edited November 30, 2022 by Asyulus

[Maggie]

I think The Flash could have been really big if no actor troubles. Like i would have predicted 350M+

[Brainbug]

Im Indy believer, 500M+ DOM.

[SullyJake]

So far I think MI:7 is the only film that breaks 1b