2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[kayumanggi]

Here are my TOP 20 without the grosses:

 

February

ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

 

March

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

JOHN WICK III

 

April

THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

 

May

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY III

FAST X

THE LITTLE MERMAID

 

June

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS

THE FLASH

ELEMENTAL

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

July

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING I

BARBIE

THE MARVELS

 

August

BLUE BEETLE

 

November

DUNE II

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

WISH

 

December

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Almost on the list:

CREED III

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

OPPENHEIMER

THE MEG: THE TRENCH

KRAVEN THE HUNTER

TROLLS III

WONKA

[Mickiland16]

10 Biggest Movies of 2023 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Potential

Their list:

1. Fast X - $1.2 Billion

2. The Little Mermaid - $1 Billion

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - $900 Million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $800 Million

5. The Marvels - $820 Million

6. Super Mario Bros Movie - $800 Million

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $775 Million

8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $700 Million

9. Mission Impossible 7 - $695 Million

10. The Flash - $650 Million.

 

I think MI7 will be higher than what they say also Indiana Jones should appear here. But outside of it this is a fair list to me although I don't see Fast X making The Fate of the Furious numbers I think it'll be closer to $1 billion

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

10 Biggest Movies of 2023 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Potential

Their list:

1. Fast X - $1.2 Billion

2. The Little Mermaid - $1 Billion

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - $900 Million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $800 Million

5. The Marvels - $820 Million

6. Super Mario Bros Movie - $800 Million

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $775 Million

8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $700 Million

9. Mission Impossible 7 - $695 Million

10. The Flash - $650 Million.

 

I think MI7 will be higher than what they say also Indiana Jones should appear here. But outside of it this is a fair list to me although I don't see Fast X making The Fate of the Furious numbers I think it'll be closer to $1 billion

 

 

 

Knock $250-350M off of Fast X. 
Little Mermaid seems fine 
GOTG3 seems fine 

Aquaman 2 seems fine

Knock $100-150M off The Marvels

Super Mario seems fine

Knock $100-150M off Ant-Man 3

Knock $50-100M off Transformers

Add $50-100M to MI7

Knick $50-100M off The Flash

 

[Pinacolada]

Dungeons and Dragons needs to move away from Mario. That movie is gonna be a juggernaut 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Dungeons and Dragons needs to move away from Mario. That movie is gonna be a juggernaut 

I feel like Dungeons & Dragons is a flop in waiting no matter where it opens tbh. Only surprisingly good reviews could save it.

[Juby]

7 hours ago, Mickiland16 said:

10 Biggest Movies of 2023 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Potential

Their list:

1. Fast X - $1.2 Billion

2. The Little Mermaid - $1 Billion

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - $900 Million

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $800 Million

5. The Marvels - $820 Million

6. Super Mario Bros Movie - $800 Million

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $775 Million

8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $700 Million

9. Mission Impossible 7 - $695 Million

10. The Flash - $650 Million.

 

I think MI7 will be higher than what they say also Indiana Jones should appear here. But outside of it this is a fair list to me although I don't see Fast X making The Fate of the Furious numbers I think it'll be closer to $1 billion

 

The worst predictions ever. Ever!

[Pinacolada]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

I feel like Dungeons & Dragons is a flop in waiting no matter where it opens tbh. Only surprisingly good reviews could save it.

I dont think it's a guaranteed flop in waiting, but I definitely think it has a ceiling. Around $400m WW in my guess, that's including if it's good. With a budget of let's say $150m (if it's 175m or 200m... oh boy), I think it can get close to $400m and be a decent enough performance. 

 

But I think it's gonna need some help with good reviews (I can see this being in the 70% range on RT, I think it looks fun and I think I trust the team behind it) and a good release date. And the date they currently have I think is bad. I feel like Mario is kinda going after that same crowd is gonna be a huge hit. I think the better spot for this would be April 21 

[Flip]

Top 10 Domestic:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($460M)

2. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($405M)

3. Indiana Jones 5 ($380M)

4. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning (also $380M)

5. Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($318M)

6. The Marvels ($279M)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp - Quantumania ($271M)

8. The Little Mermaid ($269M)

9. Super Mario Bros ($268M)

10. The Flash ($258M)
 

[Flip]

Top 10 Worldwide:

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($1.445B w/China and $955B w/o China)

2. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning ($1.04B assuming China release)

3. Indiana Jones 5 ($1B)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($900M)

5. Fast X ($855M)

6. The Little Mermaid ($759M)

7. The Flash ($728M)

8. Meg 2: The Trench ($712M w/ China)

9. Super Mario Bros ($698M)

10. The Marvels ($664M)

[Starphanluke]

I know I'm biased, but I still think y'all are pretty wildly under-estimating Transformers. That trailer generated a LOT of buzz (more than Guardians or Indy, which dropped on the *same day*), and massive trailer views. While trailer views don't always translate to BO receipts, it's at least promising. It also really took off on TikTok which, as you know, can really elevate stuff. 

 

It just hit me that the kids who grew up on the original 2007 movie are now entering an age to be a big demographic for movies like this. I think nostalgia could help it, too.

 

If the movie can get a release in China, I absolutely think $800m is in play.

[kayumanggi]

53 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

I know I'm biased, but I still think y'all are pretty wildly under-estimating Transformers. That trailer generated a LOT of buzz (more than Guardians or Indy, which dropped on the *same day*), and massive trailer views. While trailer views don't always translate to BO receipts, it's at least promising. It also really took off on TikTok which, as you know, can really elevate stuff. 

 

It just hit me that the kids who grew up on the original 2007 movie are now entering an age to be a big demographic for movies like this. I think nostalgia could help it, too.

 

If the movie can get a release in China, I absolutely think $800m is in play.

 

I very much agree.

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://deadline.com/2022/12/global-box-office-projection-2023-29-billion-analysts-1235200843/

 

Quote

Taking a look ahead to 2023, Gower Street Analytics is projecting global box office to hit $29B, repping a 12% gain on 2022 should this year remain on track for approximately $25.8B. The London-based firm estimates 2022 receipts stood at $23.6B as of December 10. 

 

If this early projection holds, Gower says it would suggest the industry will need to wait until at least 2024 to see a full return to pre-pandemic global levels. Its 2023 forecast is still 27% behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at current exchange rates (this would rise to 30% compared to historic rates).

 

[poweranimals]

On 12/16/2022 at 8:02 AM, Eric The Last Airbender said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/global-box-office-projection-2023-29-billion-analysts-1235200843/

 

 

And it's probably not gonna recover because people have way more options now with streaming. Obviously there will be some exceptions, but pretty much everything disappointed this year and I think a lot of that is people would rather just stay home and watch whatever is available on the multiple streaming platforms.

Edited December 18, 2022 by poweranimals

[XXR vs XXR]

Movie theaters are like linear TV. Still around, still huge, but declining in user base every year.

[JWR]

June is so damn crowded. I'm predicting that one of those moves forward or pushed back. And until we get a Flash trailer, I'm not even sure its making its release. 

[filmlover]

I'm still hopeful that 2023 can bring the box office back to pre-COVID levels, especially with a promising slate of movies. May through July in particular is looking guaranteed to be a very busy three month stretch.

[kayumanggi]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm still hopeful that 2023 can bring the box office back to pre-COVID levels, especially with a promising slate of movies. May through July in particular is looking guaranteed to be a very busy three month stretch.

 

https://www.screendaily.com/news/global-box-office-will-still-fall-short-of-pre-pandemic-levels-in-2023-says-analyst-gower-street/5177528.article

[JWR]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm still hopeful that 2023 can bring the box office back to pre-COVID levels, especially with a promising slate of movies. May through July in particular is looking guaranteed to be a very busy three month stretch.

 

Expect it to be up from 2022, but no more than that. The market still needs more time to fully stabilize.

[AniNate]

The early months look rather unremarkable to me, though maybe might still be an improvement over last year.

 

Hopefully the US will avoid any more huge covid waves and this can really be the first "normal" year since 2019.

[JWR]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The early months look rather unremarkable to me, though maybe might still be an improvement over last year.

 

Hopefully the US will avoid any more huge covid waves and this can really be the first "normal" year since 2019.

 

I fully expect January to February to be slow but with steady surges (I.E. M3GAN, Knock at the Cabin, Ant-Man, Scream 6, Shazam). Then things will pick up a bit in April before things get busy in May and June.