2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Indy 5... No Spielberg. No real nostalgia. We'll see..

[TMP]

MI 7 over indy 5. Don't see what the hook for the latter will be AT ALL. Feels like it'll be the most over-predicted film of 2023 (either that or aquaman 2 - still don't know how that'll do as well as predicted without the benefit of holiday legs)

[WittyUsername]

The big thing that makes me unsure about MI7 is the ‘part one’ in the title. 

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Indy 5... No Spielberg. No real nostalgia. We'll see..

 

1 hour ago, TMP said:

MI 7 over indy 5. Don't see what the hook for the latter will be AT ALL. Feels like it'll be the most over-predicted film of 2023 (either that or aquaman 2 - still don't know how that'll do as well as predicted without the benefit of holiday legs)

Kingdom of the Crystal Skull adjusts to 405M despite weak reception. Unless it's a creative disaster, which I doubt (Crystal Skull backlash was so toxic and the creatives/cast behind this are so strong that it's obligated by law to be good IMO), I see zero reason why it wouldn't at least get close to matching that. Plus there's Harrison Ford back in his most iconic role one last time, legacyquels are all the rage, Indiana Jones is still a popular and loved franchise, and the 15-year gap from the last movie is both a good enough time where the bad taste isn't really in people's mouths anymore and long enough where people can feel nostalgic about seeing Indiana Jones again. Plus adventure movies like Indy have always had a market, and that's especially true today. Jungle Cruise, Uncharted, and The Lost City all easily zoomed past 100M even though none of them had great reviews.

 

Really, this has everything going for it to explode at the box office.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

 

Kingdom of the Crystal Skull adjusts to 405M despite weak reception. Unless it's a creative disaster, which I doubt (Crystal Skull backlash was so toxic and the creatives/cast behind this are so strong that it's obligated by law to be good IMO), I see zero reason why it wouldn't at least get close to matching that. Plus there's Harrison Ford back in his most iconic role one last time, legacyquels are all the rage, Indiana Jones is still a popular and loved franchise, and the 15-year gap from the last movie is both a good enough time where the bad taste isn't really in people's mouths anymore and long enough where people can feel nostalgic about seeing Indiana Jones again. Plus adventure movies like Indy have always had a market, and that's especially true today. Jungle Cruise, Uncharted, and The Lost City all easily zoomed past 100M even though none of them had great reviews.

 

Really, this has everything going for it to explode at the box office.

I would still take Guardians 3 over Indy 5

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I would still take Guardians 3 over Indy 5

Sure. I wouldn't be surprised either. I just think Indiana Jones has a bit more potential than you're saying.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Tank Engine said:

Sure. I wouldn't be surprised either. I just think Indiana Jones has a bit more potential than you're saying.

I don't think it'll flop by any means but without Spielberg, I'm not totally convinced about the quality or even nostalgia. And a few weeks later it'll have hard comp from Mission 7, Oppenheimer, and Barbie before another Marvel movie end of the month. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think it'll flop by any means but without Spielberg, I'm not totally convinced about the quality or even nostalgia. And a few weeks later it'll have hard comp from Mission 7, Oppenheimer, and Barbie before another Marvel movie end of the month. 

Mangold's a solid enough director. Easily can be something akin to Top Gun Maverick (but likely not reaching those heights).

[Eric Duncan]

Mangold is honestly what is selling me on the Indy dream. In terms of crowd pleasing popcorn blockbusters, he is one of the best at the moment. He knows what the people want

[p a p i]

If Blade is a great MCU movie, I think it has a BIG breakout potential. 

 

The most easy and predictable picks for the biggest movies of 2023 are GOTG Vol. 3 and Indy 5. 

Yet for some reason, I think it's going to be something else. Something that will breakout in the vein of Top Gun. 

 

Could that be The Little Mermaid? Barbie if it's really that INSANE zeitgeist? 

[Potiki]

1 hour ago, p a p i said:

If Blade is a great MCU movie, I think it has a BIG breakout potential. 

 

The most easy and predictable picks for the biggest movies of 2023 are GOTG Vol. 3 and Indy 5. 

Yet for some reason, I think it's going to be something else. Something that will breakout in the vein of Top Gun. 

 

Could that be The Little Mermaid? Barbie if it's really that INSANE zeitgeist? 

MI Dead Reckoning, The Cruise Missile about to go back to back 

[p a p i]

8 hours ago, Potiki said:

MI Dead Reckoning, The Cruise Missile about to go back to back 

Oh yeah. That could definitely do it. 

[p a p i]

I'm thinking Aquaman 2 will move to December 2023 and Shazam 2 will take its place in March. 

 

I don't know what that would mean for The Flash tho. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Domestic

GOTG 3 -475M
TLM.     -425M
Indy.      -385M
Mario.  -355-360M
Marvels -350M
Quantumania -335M
ATSV.              -325M
Aquaman.       - 315M
M17.                -315M
Dune.               -285M
Blade               - 275M
Barbie.             -260M
FLASH.            -255M

 

WW

MI7 - 1.1bn
TLM - 1.04bn
Aquaman 2 - 1.02bn
GOTG.          -950M+
Indy.            -935M
Fast X.        - 875M
Mario.         -860M
Marvel's.    -800M
DUNE.        - 785M
Quantumania -775M
Flash.               -710M
Blade.               - 650-725M
Barbie.             -625M
ATSV                -615M
Transformers -600M

[p a p i]

Wonder how many Billion dollar movies we will have in 2023. I feel like now more than ever, your movie needs to be good to reach it.  I think we have some Billion potential in 2023:

 

1) Ant-Man Quantumania -  If this movie is great, I think the breakout potential of this one is huge. Ant-Man is bigger. Kang is coming. It's BHM. Tell you this. If this is a GOOD MCU movie, this reaches 1B. Probably won't go 1.1B

 

2) Super Mario -  If this movie is good, has a great entertainment value for children plus the immense fanbase of Mario and Nintendo and a China release, I say it gets there.

 

3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 -  This to me is a SAFE bet. I think it's going to be a really good and emotional movie. The goodbye to this roster of Guardians. I say 1.2B

 

4) Fast X -  Fast 9 sold me. With a China release date, movie theaters doing much better, I think the title alone adds something and with the huge cast joining...I think this makes a Billion. Unless this movie stinks hard, I think it makes a B. 

 

5) The Little Mermaid - Memorial Day Weekend. It's going to be a BIG musical. Lin Manuel Miranda is on it. This feels like such a Summer winner. If it's good, It gets to a Billion. 

 

6) Indy 5 -  I was lower on this days ago but I'm starting to feel that this will be huge. Specially Domestic. If this a great Indy movie, it's a beast unleashed. Faith in Mangold. 

 

7) Mission Impossible: DR P1 - Tom Cruise is hotter than ever. I sense a lot of good will and excitement will jump from TG to MI. Also, this is a big franchise already and I'm getting confident on a Billion on this. 

 

8) The Marvels -  If this movie is really good, I think it makes it. 

 

9) Blade -  Again. If this movie is really good, this could be a big breakout hit and bring the Black audiences in droves like Black Panther me thinks. 

 

10) Aquaman 2 -  I think this movie will replicate the 1st success. Or even more. 

 

Not saying all these will happen. But I think they have the most potential to do it. 

I wonder if we will ever have a 2019 again. That was madness. 2023 doesn't seem like another 2019 but it does look MUCH better than this year. Same for 2024 already. 2025 will be interesting. 2 Avengers movies. Another 2 MCU movies that could make a Billion just by default and hype carry. I also think we will definitely get a Star Wars movie in 2025 if there isn't one in 2024. And the other studios is something to be seen. It's very early. 

 

But 2025 more than 2023 and 2024, does have a real potential for the next 2019-like year. 

[Eric Duncan]

1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M

2. The Little Mermaid: 435M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M

4. Mario: 375M

5. Aquaman 2: 350M

6. Ant-Man 3: 325M

7. Dune Part Two: 300M 

8. The Marvels: 280M

9. Barbie: 270M

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M

[Factcheck]

35 minutes ago, Eric Carey said:

1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M

2. The Little Mermaid: 435M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M

4. Mario: 375M

5. Aquaman 2: 350M

6. Ant-Man 3: 325M

7. Dune Part Two: 300M 

8. The Marvels: 280M

9. Barbie: 270M

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M

Aquaman 2 550M(Christmas release date/no big competition)

The Marvels 180-200M

The Flash 330M( because of Batman)

Rest Agree

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Aquaman 2 550M(Christmas release date/no big competition)

The Marvels 180-200M

The Flash 330M( because of Batman)

Rest Agree

 

So the Aquaman is going to go up by $200M and the Captain Marvel sequel is going to go down by $200M....

 

[XXR vs XXR]

54 minutes ago, Eric Carey said:

1. Indiana Jones 5: 500M

2. The Little Mermaid: 435M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: 425M

4. Mario: 375M

5. Aquaman 2: 350M

6. Ant-Man 3: 325M

7. Dune Part Two: 300M 

8. The Marvels: 280M

9. Barbie: 270M

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: 250M

 

 

I basically agree with 8 of these (+/- 10% maybe?) but I think Dune 2 and Barbie are each $100M too high.

[VENOM]

On 8/6/2022 at 11:49 PM, p a p i said:

The most easy and predictable picks for the biggest movies of 2023 are GOTG Vol. 3 and Indy 5.