2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[WittyUsername]

I guess I’ll predict Indy as number one of the year, both domestically and worldwide. The one I’m most curious about is The Flash. Most people seem to have written it off, but I think it could go either way. 
 

In any case, 2023 is looking to be the busiest year for movies in a long time. 

[jedijake]

See....this is why SO many people get depressed and panicked about movies in general. When they predict Indy 5 making ridiculous numbers and it makes 2/3 or even 1/2 of those predictions, people whine about how it underperformed.

 

I can definitely see Indy 5 making less than $300 million domestic. 2023's champ will probably be either Little Mermaid or GOTG3 but we're talking MAYBE in the $400 millions. 2023 will be another 2014.

[stripe]

Top10

Guardians - 440M

Indiana Jones - 420M

Little Mermaid - 350M

Marvels - 340M

Mission Impossible - 310M
The Flash - 305M

Ant Man - 300M

Mario Bros - 260M

Aquaman - 250M

Elemental - 230M

 

Outside top10

Spiderverse - 220M

Dune - 200M

Fast X - 185M

John Wick - 175M

Transformers - 160M

 

Worst surprise
Barbie - 100M

[Asyulus]

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | $470M DOM | $1.075B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One | $350M DOM | $1.05B WW

3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $320M DOM | $880M WW

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $285M DOM | $855M WW

5. Indiana Jones and the Space Race | $300M DOM | $765M WW

6. The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $270M DOM | $740M WW

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $320M DOM | $735M WW

8. The Flash | $190M DOM | $635M WW

9. Fast X | $175M DOM | $620M WW

10. The Marvels | $220M DOM | $615M WW

Edited November 30, 2022 by Asyulus

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, Asyulus said:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | $470M DOM | $1.075B WW

2. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One | $350M DOM | $1.05B WW

3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $320M DOM | $880M WW

4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $285M DOM | $855M WW

5. Indiana Jones and the Space Race | $300M DOM | $765M WW

6. The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $270M DOM | $740M WW

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $320M DOM | $735M WW

8. The Flash | $190M DOM | $635M WW

9. Fast X | $175M DOM | $620M WW

10. The Marvels | $220M DOM | $615M WW

Where's Little Mermaid?

 

And people really keep reaching above their reach for some films (MI8 $350 dom??? Really??? GOTG3 almost $500 m? Ant Man over $300 m?)

[Verrows]

Biggest OW of 2023?

 

I suppose my money is on the usual winner: the annual May Marvel release.

 

Calling GotG Vol. 3 with around $175M opening.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Verrows

[Grebacio]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Biggest OW of 2023?

 

I suppose my money is on the usual winner: the annual May Marvel release.

 

Calling GotG Vol. 3 with around $175M opening.

Indy 5

[Verrows]

8 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Indy 5

That would be neat! I just can't stand that date though. Right in the middle of the summer gauntlet. It won't get moved at this point with a trailer imminent but this would work well as Disney's big December release OR on Memorial Day weekend when Indy was traditionally released (don't know where The Little Mermaid would go though).

[jedijake]

What kind of audience does Indy even have now? Who does it appeal to? That's coming from someone who has Indy as one of his top 10 franchises of all time, but still admits there's nothing appealing in this day and age about having an 80 year old as the main action star and almost everyone else well over 50 or 60 except for one relatively unknown female.

[XXR vs XXR]

53 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Biggest OW of 2023?

 

I suppose my money is on the usual winner: the annual May Marvel release.

 

Calling GotG Vol. 3 with around $175M opening.

Yea GOTG3 should have the OW number fairly easy. I would be surprised if anything else got within $30M of it.

[Verrows]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What kind of audience does Indy even have now? Who does it appeal to? That's coming from someone who has Indy as one of his top 10 franchises of all time, but still admits there's nothing appealing in this day and age about having an 80 year old as the main action star and almost everyone else well over 50 or 60 except for one relatively unknown female.

The vibe I'm getting, anecdotally, is most people seem to have faith that Mangold and the writers are going to pull it off, quite simply. Nobody knows how they're going to handle an old Indy but they figure whatever they did, we'll all be able to buy it.

 

Faith in the filmmakers involved to deliver, I guess is what it is in a nutshell.

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

What kind of audience does Indy even have now? Who does it appeal to? That's coming from someone who has Indy as one of his top 10 franchises of all time, but still admits there's nothing appealing in this day and age about having an 80 year old as the main action star and almost everyone else well over 50 or 60 except for one relatively unknown female.

I suppose many of us are just expecting it to be like a mini-TFA, but you could very well be right. Indy doesn’t have the same kind of insanely devoted fanbase as Star Wars, and it’s being released in what’s set to be a packed Summer, so I suppose there are no guarantees. 

[jedijake]

18 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I suppose many of us are just expecting it to be like a mini-TFA, but you could very well be right. Indy doesn’t have the same kind of insanely devoted fanbase as Star Wars, and it’s being released in what’s set to be a packed Summer, so I suppose there are no guarantees. 

Remember, TFA brought in new younger characters. Hard to think back, but at the time TFA was out, the new young characters were all well-liked. There was actually a LOT of intrigue about where the new trilogy was going with Kylo, who was Rey, what would Luke's role be having been isolated, and what was the deal with Snoke? Much of the appeal came from not only being SW and having a nostalgic feel but also hope for the future of the franchise.

 

Does the new Indy movie have that? I don't know any spoilers, but I also don't know of any new "heirs" to the franchise nor have even heard of any set up for a new set of movies. Maybe there is, but there's been absolutely no talk of it from what I have heard (and I have searched). Meanwhile, TFA was all about that.

 

@Verrowsdo many even know who Mangold is? Maybe die-hard cinemaphiles, but not the GA.

 

I still stand by my prediction that it doesn't make $300 million domestically and maybe not even $250 m. Maybe even far less than that and maybe we have another Solo on our hands. Not a horrible or even really a bad movie-just competent and meh.

Edited December 1, 2022 by jedijake

[Ronin46]

I took it to mean that people have faith that Mangold will make a good movie and that will cause it to be successful, not that people will go to the movie because Mangold is directing and that will make it successful...if that makes sense. 

[Verrows]

25 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

I took it to mean that people have faith that Mangold will make a good movie and that will cause it to be successful, not that people will go to the movie because Mangold is directing and that will make it successful...if that makes sense. 

Kind of a bit of both. I meant hope that Mangold will deliver and conjure up a worthy story for an 80+ year old Indy, with that hope being based on knowledge of who Mangold is and his strengths as a filmmaker.

[Asyulus]

12 hours ago, jedijake said:

Where's Little Mermaid?

 

And people really keep reaching above their reach for some films (MI8 $350 dom??? Really??? GOTG3 almost $500 m? Ant Man over $300 m?)

MI:7 has Cruise effect in addition to being a franchise that gets better each sequel; GOTG3 has the final factor effect + threequel which always drastically increased from predecessor + marketing and lore including the holiday special; Quantumania does have Kang introducing the major plot point of Multiverse saga and the same threequel effect.

[jedijake]

11 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

MI:7 has Cruise effect in addition to being a franchise that gets better each sequel; GOTG3 has the final factor effect + threequel which always drastically increased from predecessor + marketing and lore including the holiday special; Quantumania does have Kang introducing the major plot point of Multiverse saga and the same threequel effect.

I can understand those points to an extent.

 

But, again, where is Little Mermaid on your list?

[Asyulus]

12 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I can understand those points to an extent.

 

But, again, where is Little Mermaid on your list?

I’m still not sure of prediction to that movie. It seems wildcard-ish as of now.

[Juby]

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253150830-2022-23-market-forecast-highly-seasonal-with-a-chance-of-Summer-hits

 

 

L O L 🤣 This guy is unbelievable. GotG3 with only $340m even though the first one adjusted in 2023 will be around $430m and the sequel close to $490m? Even the-worst-Thor-movie this year was over $340m. The Marvels at $330m without "Endgame boost" (not gonna happen). Indy with only $300m?!! ($400m seems the floor) No M:I-7? No other $300-million grosser? Complete bs.

 

Wakanda Forever will be over $409m domestic before the Christmas and $390m for Avatar sequel (in 2022) is just huge underestimation.

 

[kayumanggi]

This probably won't happen, but I just want ELEMENTAL to make at least 200 M.