TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, Juby said:

The film with "A+" Cinemascore played in over 4000 theaters and with the best legs is Black Panther (x3.47, OW was also boosted by strong holiday Monday). Top Gun: Maverick with same legs will finish with about $430m dom. if Paramount won't screw it by releasing the film on Paramount+ after 45 days, I think TGM can go that high.

that's the low end, i think , but since its imax heavy it could be true

[Tokugennumataka]

Thinking the BP situation is applicable here. Even when Sun numbers were revealed, nobody expected it to set the all time Mon record. Despite the massive numbers, the drop was astonishingly low for PD. Hoping for a similar situation here where the drop off is very low. The military theme is also an added boost. A 16% drop gives a $31M Mon, the third best non December Monday ever. 

[krla]

About Netflix; it's fairly obvious they are switching to profit mode. Most companies like this do it after 20ish years, so they can benefit from net operating losses. Otherwise they are just throwing money away. Cut expenses, raise revenues, milk your marketshare. Losing subscribers isn't much of a problem. Look at AOL, which still makes hundreds of millions from subscribers who never cancelled. And Netflix will be underpriced, as people view losing subscribers as a very bad thing. eBay was far more profitable than Amazon until just a couple years ago, but Amazon's market cap is many multiples higher. But Netflix has a decent amount of IP behind it, and even focusing on a handful of projects and losing half their subscribers will make them insanely profitable.

 

They've finished their growth phase. They could continue growing by other means, like introducing ads and a lower price, for instance. They could also off-load upfront content costs by opening their platform to very indie creators, and simply giving them an amount based on views. Another thing they could do is make their library more accessible, i always feel like the amount of content on Netflix is insanely small, because they basically curtain off most content unless you get into some extremely niche category or specifically search it out. Netflix absolutely sucks for discovering new content.

[filmscholar]

After the success of "TG 2",  I know of another Popular 80's IP that never got a sequel.

 

 

 

Come on Steven, I saw the commercials. do it.   Send Elliot and his family to ET's planet.   A family space adventure.  Or have a Alien Threat come to earth from his planet and E.T. has to help Elliot.  There's a lot ways you can go.   It would smash.   Yes it's been 40 years but they should get on this soon.   Also I know about the "Nocturnal Fears" Script.  This would be a whole new story.  

Edited May 30, 2022 by filmscholar

[Brainbug]

On Hollywoods list of bad ideas, imo making a sequel to E.T. should rank among the Top 5 at least.

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Juby said:

The film with "A+" Cinemascore played in over 4000 theaters and with the best legs is Black Panther (x3.47, OW was also boosted by strong holiday Monday). Top Gun: Maverick with same legs will finish with about $430m dom. if Paramount won't screw it by releasing the film on Paramount+ after 45 days, I think TGM can go that high.

To be honest, I don’t think TGM is a crazy breakout like BP. If you look at daily trend from preview to Sunday, BP simply had much more momentum carried over. Saturday gross was 30% higher than true Friday but TGM only had 16%. As for Sunday, BP’ sunday was 18% higher than true Friday and TGM Sunday is 13% higher than friday. And do remember BP is a CBM that supposed to be frontloaded but somehow that movie defied expectations and keep trending upward from hour to hour. I don’t feel the same for TGM in the past few days. The trending was great but not crazy. 

[LegendaryBen]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

To be honest, I don’t think TGM is a crazy breakout like BP. If you look at daily trend from preview to Sunday, BP simply had much more momentum carried over. Saturday gross was 30% higher than true Friday but TGM only had 16%. As for Sunday, BP’ sunday was 18% higher than true Friday and TGM Sunday is 13% higher than friday. And do remember BP is a CBM that supposed to be frontloaded but somehow that movie defied expectations and keep trending upward from hour to hour. I don’t feel the same for TGM in the past few days. The trending was great but not crazy. 

What's your final prediction for TGM in terms of domestically and internationally?

[M37]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

To be honest, I don’t think TGM is a crazy breakout like BP. If you look at daily trend from preview to Sunday, BP simply had much more momentum carried over. Saturday gross was 30% higher than true Friday but TGM only had 16%. As for Sunday, BP’ sunday was 18% higher than true Friday and TGM Sunday is 13% higher than friday. And do remember BP is a CBM that supposed to be frontloaded but somehow that movie defied expectations and keep trending upward from hour to hour. I don’t feel the same for TGM in the past few days. The trending was great but not crazy. 

Agree with your main point, that TG2 doesn’t have nearly the same “cultural relevance” boost that really amped up BP’s numbers from opening Sunday through the second weekend 

 

With that said, Memorial Day Fri isn’t quite directly comparable to one in February, and TG2 will have advantage of summer weekdays to help pad numbers, so the final DOM/OW result may not be that far off. Yet another movie that will be flirting with $400M, though I have more confidence TG2 gets there than Strange 

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No shit.  It's essentially "live" entertainment for 3 hours at a cost of $15 per person.  

 

Name another entertainment option you can get that matches 3 hours of enjoyment for $15 per person.  Good luck with that.  

 

Well, I mean if we wanna go there...$15/person gets you...

 

1 hour trampoline parks (but no socks)

Laser Tag 2 games

Bowling 2 games and shoes

Kid Gym or Bounce House Play Areas 90 min-2 hours

Ice skating - 1 hour and skates

Swim clubs (on 1 day guest passes)

Roller skating - 1 hour and skates

1 hour of Dave and Buster's Arcade Play (roughly)

 

Movies are priced at the high end of this kinda "family" realm now...but they are not concerts and theater pricing...

 

This is why families are still slow to come back...for them, they do have options in the same price range...

[IceFire9yt]

I do wonder just how far Disney is willing to take this 45 day window thing.  Like, imagine if they put Avatar 2 on VOD after 45 days.  That would be absolute madness lmao.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by IceFire9yt

[LegendaryBen]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with your main point, that TG2 doesn’t have nearly the same “cultural relevance” boost that really amped up BP’s numbers from opening Sunday through the second weekend 

 

With that said, Memorial Day Fri isn’t quite directly comparable to one in February, and TG2 will have advantage of summer weekdays to help pad numbers, so the final DOM/OW result may not be that far off. Yet another movie that will be flirting with $400M, though I have more confidence TG2 gets there than Strange 

Here's how I see it panning out:

Top Gun Maverick: $405M (obv, the more, the better) DS2: $402M.

What are your projections?

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

I do wonder just how far Disney is willing to take this 45 day window thing.  Like, imagine if they put Avatar 2 on VOD after 45 days.  That would be absolute madness lmao.

 

 

Don’t tease me like this.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

On Hollywoods list of bad ideas, imo making a sequel to E.T. should rank among the Top 5 at least.

What about Titanic 2 with Leonardo DiCaprio coming back somehow?

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

I do wonder just how far Disney is willing to take this 45 day window thing.  Like, imagine if they put Avatar 2 on VOD after 45 days.  That would be absolute madness lmao.

 

 

 

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yet another movie that will be flirting with $400M, though I have more confidence TG2 gets there than Strange 

Huh? MoM should be like 99% chance at this point — it needs to add like 1.16x the memorial 4day

 

IM2 1.57x

IM3 1.46x

AoU 1.69x

CW 1.53x   
 

I can easily buy DS2 having the worst mdw multi of all these but not 20% below the 2nd worst. Not sure if anything has had that bad a mdw multi. 
 

TF2 should also hit it but easier to imagine a miss since we’re still so early on the run.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Show Me The Legion

[Jonwo]

In regards to Mission Impossible, one thing that it has going for it is the finale factor as this is likely Tom Cruise's swan song as Ethan Hunt. 

 

 

[Legion Again]

Just now, Jonwo said:

In regards to Mission Impossible, one thing that it has going for it is the finale factor as this is likely Tom Cruise's swan song as Ethan Hunt. 

 

 

Something tells me “part 1” won’t get the finale factor 😛   
 

Pt 2 will depends on how good pt 1 was. I expect good things from it.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, LegendaryBen said:

What's your final prediction for TGM in terms of domestically and internationally?

400m + 450m. 

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with your main point, that TG2 doesn’t have nearly the same “cultural relevance” boost that really amped up BP’s numbers from opening Sunday through the second weekend 

 

With that said, Memorial Day Fri isn’t quite directly comparable to one in February, and TG2 will have advantage of summer weekdays to help pad numbers, so the final DOM/OW result may not be that far off. Yet another movie that will be flirting with $400M, though I have more confidence TG2 gets there than Strange 

Until the 2nd weekend number is out, I am not sure how locked is the 400m but I have been secretly predicting TGM will be the biggest domestic grosser for paramount since titanic, i.e. > 402m by TF2. 
 

Problem is that 3.17x legs is still a bit too much to ask from a 100m opener. Look at ford v Ferrari, another dad movie with high white male turnout rate receiving A+ cinemascore back in 2019, “only” managed to pull out 3.7x legs from just 31m opening,  and that was with some of the late legs were boosted by Oscar nomination. 
 

TGM is far more accessible with summer weekdays of course but I am just not sure if our marketplace nowadays can any longer allow a leggy run. It is good to be wrong though, I hope I can be awestruck by 2nd week hold. 

[Legion Again]

I am not a big competition mattering guy but like 180M opener 3rd weekend, 100M 4th wknd, minions 6th wknd into Thor 7th weekend is pretty rough. If black phone and Elvis do real nums even harsher. It’s got 14 summer days to run wild but then the PlFs are kaput. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Show Me The Legion

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

400m + 450m. 

Until the 2nd weekend number is out, I am not sure how locked is the 400m but I have been secretly predicting TGM will be the biggest domestic grosser for paramount since titanic, i.e. > 402m by TF2. 
 

Problem is that 3.17x legs is still a bit too much to ask from a 100m opener. Look at ford v Ferrari, another dad movie with high white male turnout rate receiving A+ cinemascore back in 2019, “only” managed to pull out 3.7x legs from just 31m opening,  and that was with some of the late legs were boosted by Oscar nomination. 
 

TGM is far more accessible with summer weekdays of course but I am just not sure if our marketplace nowadays can any longer allow a leggy run. It is good to be wrong though, I hope I can be awestruck by 2nd week hold. 

 

Because it's a spectacle that demands to be seen on the biggest screen possible, Ford v Ferrari wasn't.