Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

I'd say since Black Panther

I'd agree with this... Unless Maverick gets over 600M+ DOM, I'd say Black Panther is definitely a more impressive run. In the end, both are easily going to be more impressive than Jurassic World which had a very impressive run itself.

 

I'd actually say No Way Home could very much be argued to be more impressive too. I know it had the holiday boost but 805M DOM off of a 260M OW DOM when Covid was spiking during the months of December and January and even into February is pretty bonkers too.

Edited June 4, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[CoolioD1]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

it's not entirely wrong but i don't think top gun is a huge toy mover lol

pfft tell that to my glen powell blow up doll.

[TMP]

top gun sea org playset

[Eric Lasagna]

Deadline updated top 10. Sorry if already posted

 

1.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,751 (+16) theaters, Fri $25M (-52%), 3-day $84.5M (-33%), Total $290.1M/Wk 2

2.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 3,765 (-40) theaters, Fri $2.6M (-43%), 3-day $8.8M(-45%)/Total $388.2M/Wk 5

3.) Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th/Dis) 3,425 theaters, Fri $1.3M (-76%) 3-Day $4.78M (-61%), Total $22.5M/Wk 2

4.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 2,869 (-75) theaters, Fri $930K(-26%), 3-day $3.33M (-24%), Total $87.2M/Wk 7

5.) Downton Abbey- A New Era (Foc) 3,451 (-379) theaters, Fri $970K (-47%), 3-day $3M (-48%), Total $35.7M/Wk 3

6.) Vikram (Ind) 465 theaters, Fri $875K, 3-day $2.1M/Wk 1

7.) Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) 1,434 (+247) theaters, Fri $567K (-18%), 3-day $1.9M (-21%), Total $60.4M/Wk 11

8.) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Par) 2,092 (-237) theaters Fri $435K (-34%), 3-day $1.53M (-37%), Total $188M/Wk 9

9.) The Lost City (Par) 811 (-216) theaters, Fri $360K (-26%), 3-day $1.31M (-37%), Total $103.9M/Wk 11

10.) Crimes of the Future (NEON) 773 theaters, Fri $490K, 3-day $1.17M/Wk 1

[M37]

16 minutes ago, krla said:

Does diverse just mean less white? From Top Gun, to JW, to MCU, all of those have a white audience that is smaller than the overall demographics of the US. Most just reflect the racial/ethnic breakdown of the age demographic most likely to see the film. The younger the audience, the less white the audience will tend to be.

There’s some validity in your point here, that age draw can skew the “expected” diversity of a movie’s audience, but it’s also a lot more nuanced than that. The overall movie-going audience is less white than population demographics, even when adjusted for age. Diversity can also be causal vs frequent moviegoers, which is likely the case for TG2, given the atypical market skew 

 

Movies audiences don’t exist in a vacuum, there’s a community/cultural connection, in that people will watch what their friends are seeing/ & talking about. So you also have rural/urban divides, political undertones, financial class, etc. Demographics delineations  are HARD, and the default is to use simple grouping (like a 4-quad movie, racial breakdown) when none of these blocks are a monolith - people are complicated (just look at election polling)

 

Having seen these attendance patterns “on the ground” for [censored] years, I often find it easier to just point to a comp rather than try to fully articulate the nuances. Like how I keep mentioning Venom as an analog to JWD, not just because I think the age and racial breakdown might be similar, but because I believe there are more fundamental overlaps between those two audiences. Maybe someday I’ll figure out how to get these ideas out of my head and onto paper …

[Valonqar]

Is Deadlinelowballing again? 84.5M is way lower than 90M that's predicted here.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Valonqar

[Johnny Tran]

WB needs to drop the 45-day runs...   Some ppl are just gonna go "hmm HBO Max"  and not go to the theaters. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Is Deadline under-predicting again? 84.5M is way lower than 90M that's predicted here.

 

Deadline mentioned in their article that the 84,5M is the official estimate of Paramount while rivals have the number higher.

 

Studiois often underestimate their movies number/stay conservative since when the numbers come in higher, it looks even better.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Is Deadlinelowballing again? 84.5M is way lower than 90M that's predicted here.

 

Who's predicting $90M?

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Is Deadlinelowballing again? 84.5M is way lower than 90M that's predicted here.

They say right in their article that that's the low end and rival studios are expecting higher so I guess but not really. At least it did earlier this morning. Not sure if they removed that from the latest update. But, yeah, probably 90M+ with a 25M+ Friday seems to be the consensus among the number crunchers here at BOT.

[Valonqar]

Thank you guys! I understand better now. 

[The Dark Rock]

23 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Is Deadlinelowballing again? 84.5M is way lower than 90M that's predicted here.

 

Who is predicting 90m? Thought 75-85m was prediction by most here

[excel1]

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, The Dark Rock said:

 

Who is predicting 90m? Thought 75-85m was prediction by most here

 

19 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

Who's predicting $90M?

 

Maybe it won't but 85M+ is locked as the floor and 90M+ is very, very possible. Anytime I have an excuse to user that gif though... Worth it.

[excel1]

4 hours ago, Firepower said:

This generation's Aliens/Terminator 2.

 

That would be TDK.

[CJohn]

Now the wait for the Saturday number begins. I want a juicy jump.

[Ethan Hunt]

I am simply here to say:

 

Top Gun Maverick 

[AdrianL]

This is nuts. 90m first weekend would've been great itself. 

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I am simply here to say:

 

Top Gun Maverick 

Top Gun Maverick 

[charlie Jatinder]

25m Saturday