Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[Hatebox]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Ya, like why Athletes need validation from Olympics right?

 

Yeah, that's not the same at all.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Ya, like why Athletes need validation from Olympics right?

Touche, i guess.

 

But the OScars are so biased.

[ThePhasmid]

It's been awhile since I've visited this board. I think it was around the same time Tenet was released. I was crossing my fingers it would save the theater experience. Well, it didn't quite pull that off. However, Top Gun: Maverick is the perfect blockbuster, and rightly performed above expectations. The first half of this film is a nuanced homage to the original while elevating the emotional beats to a new level. The second half is one of the most thrilling experiences I've had at the cinema in quite awhile. What Kosinski and crew pulled off in the final 40 minutes is nothing short of brilliant.

 

The additional bonus is that I lived in Point Loma while they were making this film in 2018. I use to play basketball outside at Third Fleet while you'd see film crew being transported to Fort Rosecrans National Cemetery (the scene where you know who is given a soldier's burial). They filmed all over Coronado, where my brother use to work in SAR (Search and Rescue), and now provides training for helicopter crew. I went to the film with him, and damn was the nostalgia rush overwhelming. It's not a propaganda film. It's just a patriotic tribute, and a subtle love letter to San Diego. Americans deserve films like this once in awhile (not all the time).

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Hatebox said:

Yeah, that's not the same at all.

 

not for 98% of the sports, but figure skating and stuff with judges like diving can be compared

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

Yeah, that's not the same at all.

It is the same. Both are races but one is based on relatively objective metrics while another is based on subjective preference. Not to mention both involves huge money and non-factor tactic to win the goal by each countries. See how North Korea "campaign" so hard just to win medal.   

Edited June 5, 2022 by titanic2187

[superduperm]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Critics don't vote for Oscars, people who work in the industry do, from actors and directors to producers and writers. They are not nearly as snobbish as critics.

I didn’t mean literal/professional critics. Just a specific group of voters that aren’t going to have an impact on whether or not I watch or enjoy a film.

[Hatebox]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

not for 98% of the sports, but figure skating and stuff with judges like diving can be compared

 

But for the elite of those sports the olympics is a logical end goal and what they train towards.

 

Winning an Oscar is not a logical end goal for the makers of Top Gun 2.

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

But for the elite of those sports the olympics is a logical end goal and what they train towards.

 

Winning an Oscar is not a logical end goal for the makers of Top Gun 2.

The Russo’s are clearly devastated that Avengers: Endgame didn’t win any Oscars. Total failure smh.

 

((sarcasm obviously))

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

But for the elite of those sports the olympics is a logical end goal and what they train towards.

 

Winning an Oscar is not a logical end goal for the makers of Top Gun 2.

true

studios goal is money

directors goal is probably making the best film they can tho

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Someone needs to slap the academy so theyre waking up and give popular blockbusters more chances.

Like this?

[CoolioD1]

at this point the oscars need top gun more than top gun needs oscars. i'm hesitant to think the movie will get nominated, as much as ABC and the heads at AMPAS are bothered by it i don't think the overall voting body gives a shit about the show's failing ratings. and obviously don't have a taste for popular movies.

[wildphantom]

I’ve just got home, I’m ecstatic at Maverick’s numbers…but most of all…Wales have just qualified for the World Cup in Qatar - our first World Cup in 64 years.  
 

I’m drunk. I’m emotional. I love you Tom Cruise. I love you Gareth Bale. 

[Jiffy]

45 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't see BP2 getting nominated over TG2.

Yeah, definitely not.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

59 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'll bet you anything director is not happening, that's how confident I am. It's not a visionary achievement and Cruise is the auteur of the film, not Kosinski. 

 

Joker had the best actor frontrunner and won Venice, which meant it had international and highbrow appeal. 

 

Villeneuve couldn't get in for Dune, you think Kosinski has a chance? Nolan was snubbed for Inception. 

 

And it's silly to say critics don't vote in Academy when the critical raves help films like Drive My Car yearly.

It's not silly to say critics don't vote in the Academy, all members are invited based on their involvement in the film industry (acting, directing, producing, different technical crafts, even publicists now), but there's no "Critics" branch of AMPAS. Critics championing a movie during awards season can make Oscar voters more likely to check out something they otherwise wouldn't, or consider a popular movie/performance worthy for nominating (like Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids).  Critics are an influence on Oscar voters but enough voters have to agree, we constantly see the Oscar nominations and wins shake out differently than what the critics groups said.

 

Each year is different. Maybe if Dune was released in 2020, Villeneuve easily makes Best Director, but if Nomadland is a 2021 movie, it's only a filler nominee and not a wire-to-wire Best Picture frontrunner. Top Gun: Maverick seems far more likely to appeal to AMPAS members than Spider-Man: No Way Home, just consider the demos of each audience vs the Academy membership.

 

It's only early June and so much can change either way. Just last Oscars, a lot of precedents were broken, but people go right back to saying what the Academy will "never" do. It's a weird form of pop culture amnesia.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

You have to show this proof instead of saying it exists lmao. But you can't because there's barely any proof of causation or correlation between legs and theatrical window length here, especially at a worldwide scale (where we've had even day and date releases like Dune have great legs).

 

If TGM loses $300 mil WW, most of that loss would be DOM (because that's where the shorter window would be). And it's practically impossible for a movie to lose that kind of money merely due to theatrical window length.

 

 

Show proof in a hypothetical?  Lol.  

 

There is absolute proof of causation or correlation between legs and theatrical window length.  

[VanillaSkies]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Top Gun is probably locked to 1B at this point 

 

It need only 450M OS (maybe even less), and it's nearly 260M already with excellent holds everywhere

It still has Korea to release in as well, and Cruise is huge there! That market alone could add 40-50 million to the total. I don’t know how is misses 1 billion after this weekend’s WW holds. 

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

There is absolute proof of causation or correlation between legs and theatrical window length.  

Well, I'm not just going to take your word for it lol. You think Sonic 2, Batman, The Lost City, etc would've made 30% more worldwide (how much more you said TG2 will make with longer theatrical) with a longer theatrical window? Would've required these movies to have sub-20% drops or even increases (assuming legs were unaffected for the first three weeks) for them to achieve that.

Edited June 5, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Well, I'm not just going to take your word for it lol. You think Sonic 2, Batman, The Lost City, etc would've made 30% more worldwide with a longer theatrical window? Would've required these movies to have sub-20% drops or even increases (assuming legs were unaffected for the first three weeks) for them to achieve that.

 

I don't care if you take my word for it or not, but yes, I think certain movies such as TG2 would have 30% of their WW gross cut off if people know/knew it would be on "free" streaming in 45 days.  

 

We would not be looking at the same phenomenon as we are right now with TG2. 

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

16 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

It's not silly to say critics don't vote in the Academy, all members are invited based on their involvement in the film industry (acting, directing, producing, different technical crafts, even publicists now), but there's no "Critics" branch of AMPAS. Critics championing a movie during awards season can make Oscar voters more likely to check out something they otherwise wouldn't, or consider a popular movie/performance worthy for nominating (like Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids).  Critics are an influence on Oscar voters but enough voters have to agree, we constantly see the Oscar nominations and wins shake out differently than what the critics groups said.

 

Each year is different. Maybe if Dune was released in 2020, Villeneuve easily makes Best Director, but if Nomadland is a 2021 movie, it's only a filler nominee and not a wire-to-wire Best Picture frontrunner. Top Gun: Maverick seems far more likely to appeal to AMPAS members than Spider-Man: No Way Home, just consider the demos of each audience vs the Academy membership.

 

It's only early June and so much can change either way. Just last Oscars, a lot of precedents were broken, but people go right back to saying what the Academy will "never" do. It's a weird form of pop culture amnesia.

 

 

More often than not critics and Academy overlap at least in terms of nominations and certain branches such as Directors or Writers have similar tastes as critics

Edited June 5, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[EmpireCity]

Here is the causation and correlation as well.  The movies that have destroyed on a giant WW level had no pre-announced streaming plan and have had the longest exclusive theatrical window.  It isn't an accident.  

 

It is also the reason that every moron who went with a day and date or short window strategy is getting canned or about to get canned.