WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Agree. I thought the some. And, in what I laid out, maybe even charge a little more than 19.99 but not quite 29.99... Something like 22.99 (D+23). Some families would absolutely spring for that option as it's likely still cheaper than going to theater... But, others, not wanting to wait 3 months or to pay a heavy PVOD fee without the theater experience, would go to the theater. I'm honestly still kind of shocked that this isn't the model they're using. Obviously, this would apply to the Marvel flicks too on D+ and the live action stuff. I'd apply the same or a similar model to HBO Max stuff like The Batman that goes there after 45 days too. Since the HBO Max service costs more, maybe the PVOD price isn't quite as high though in their model. Again, shocked this isn't what's being done already. They would not lose subs over this. People, not a ton but enough, would pay to stream in the second window AND theatrical grosses wouldn't dip as much and theaters wouldn't shed screens as quickly.

Exactly. PVOD/Rental and Retail money, on top of theatrical is lucrative. There’s revenue and perception the film is special. 
 

PVOD 45 days in for $20+ also doesn’t have that ‘buy and keep’ factor. 
 

Like you said, nobody is going to cancel their sub based on not getting all the new movies for free on Disney+ seven weeks after they release. 

[LegendaryBen]

14 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Do some people have Friday off for Juneteenth? I know at my dad's company they employees have either Friday or Monday off. 

Very unusual. Most colleagues I know have the Monday off. If they wanted to take Friday off, they could use PTO, Vacation, or personal day.

[EmpireCity]

This will be the earliest number I have ever given, but after nailing it early yesterday for TG2, let's try it again.  

 

As I suspected, it is starting off far hotter than the last 2 Saturdays.  I'm going to go with $17m for today.  Then it should be flat tomorrow or even slightly increase.  $45m+ weekend total and a 10% to 13% drop from last week.  

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

This will be the earliest number I have ever given, but after nailing it early yesterday for TG2, let's try it again.  

 

As I suspected, it is starting off far hotter than the last 2 Saturdays.  I'm going to go with $17m for today.  Then it should be flat tomorrow or even slightly increase.  $45m+ weekend total and a 10% to 13% drop from last week.  

Thats amazing. Any estimate for Dino 3?

[ringedmortality]

Ehren Kruger is writing Kosinski's Brad Pitt racing movie.

[wildphantom]

MoM will be available to buy for $20 on Wednesday. I’d have bought it. 
 

But instead I don’t need to as the mouse have decided to give it to me for free on a service I wouldn’t have cancelled. Lmao. It’s comical at this point. 
 

Oh well. Go Bob I guess! 
 

[Alex SciChannel]

22 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Top Gun: Maverick got a 10.9M friday. Paramount lowballing and saying 40M weekend (-23%)

 

[harrisonisdead]

Disney’s Lightyear, despite an A- CinemaScore and 4 stars/85% positive on PostTrak, is coming in way under its $70M-$85M projection with a $51M-$55M 3-day weekend to Universal/Amblin’s second weekend of Jurassic World Dominion with $57.1M. Jurassic could even reach $66.3M through the four-day Juneteenth holiday.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/lightyear-box-office-2-1235047729/

[titanic2187]

Can we imagine a summer 2022 without TGM? TGM overperform by $300-350m balance out the low-end figure from JWD and LY.

 

Minion fatigue is real but no matter how you spin it, it is the largest animation franchise that we currently have in the marketplace. If that come out as another misfire, July, a historical billion dollar month, could be in trouble with only Thor 4  carrying the market .  

[XXR vs XXR]

23 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm going to go with $17m for today.  Then it should be flat tomorrow or even slightly increase.  $45m+ weekend total and a 10% to 13% drop from last week.  

 

The 2nd best (real) 4th weekend ever, behind only Avatar at $50.3M. I don't expect it will hold quite as well as Avatar did post-4th weekend but if it did manage to, we would be looking at $750M or so.....

 

At this point, I would not be surprised if it surpasses Jurassic World (~$653M), Titanic (~$659M) and maybe even Infinity War (~$678M).

Edited June 18, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[BruiseCruise]

praying to cinemagods that most of plfs are returned to TG2 after the weekend

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Can we imagine a summer 2022 without TGM? TGM overperform by $300-350m balance out the low-end figure from JWD and LY.

 

Minion fatigue is real but no matter how you spin it, it is the largest animation franchise that we currently have in the marketplace. If that come out as another misfire, July, a historical billion dollar month, could be in trouble with only Thor 4  carrying the market .  

Nope looks like a hit. But yeah, July might find itself in a scenario where Thor ends up the biggest movie of the month by a very wide margin should a worst case scenario play out.

[Alex SciChannel]

The title is just great,

 

‘Lightyear’ Getting Stepped On By The Dinosaurs At Weekend Box Office As ‘Jurassic World Dominion’ Sees $57M+

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

MoM will be available to buy for $20 on Wednesday. I’d have bought it. 
 

But instead I don’t need to as the mouse have decided to give it to me for free on a service I wouldn’t have cancelled. Lmao. It’s comical at this point. 
 

Oh well. Go Bob I guess! 
 

 

To be fair to Disney, huge movie buffs wouldn't have canceled...but a lot of normal families would have, especially if they got cheaper streaming deals.  I mean, I already did for this year since there was not enough content and 2 free streaming channels with kid programming and adult programming fell in my lap.

 

They have to try and keep the "average" user happy, not the power user or the very committed user.  That's hard, and I'm still not sure they have it right, yet.

[JohnnyGossamer]

With the JWD increase and especially the insane TGM numbers we're seeing, it's good to the see impact of what's a very new holiday weekend here stateside. I think LY, while not loved, will still play very well on Saturday, Sunday and Monday too. So, while the numbers aren't what hoped, especially for LY, it's pretty cool to see the new box office number flourish over this Father's Day/Juneteenth weekend. Will be very fun to track weekends like this when Juneteenth is occurs around the weekend especially this year and next when it's observed or outright falls on a Monday... But, also, when it's on a Thursday (tons of people will take off the following Friday) and when it's observed or on a Friday (tons of people will take off the preceding Thursday). Heck, even years from now when it falls on Tuesday we'll see a ton of people take off that Monday before the Tuesday too.

 

I like it! So, yeah, not the explosive weekend I'd hoped for LY and, to much a lesser extent, JWD but still very nice. The Saturday and Sunday numbers for the top three movies this weekend will be very, very healthy.

[Blankments]

4 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

praying to cinemagods that most of plfs are returned to TG2 after the weekend

Won’t happen with ELVIS

[THUNDER BIRD]

Average WOM Jurassic World beating Lightyear, damn Colin, what a missed opportunity.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

praying to cinemagods that most of plfs are returned to TG2 after the weekend

Same, I want to watch in dolby laser imax

[BadOlCatSylvester]

If not even a known IP like Buzz Lightyear can bring in families, then what hope do Strange World and Elemental have? Sonic is so, so lucky to have such a massive, multi-generational fanbase.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Nope looks like a hit. But yeah, July might find itself in a scenario where Thor ends up the biggest movie of the month by a very wide margin should a worst case scenario play out.

Nope first teaser was a great one but 2nd trailer show that even marketing has a hard time to tune a appropriate marketing for the movie, similar to Tenet.  The movie does contain the element as summer surprise hit, perhaps a mini-Signs. Another potential surprise hit that I am eyeing is superpets. I mean, combing superhero theme and talking animal, you may have a mini secret life of pets. 

 

In short, everything after Thor 4 is a testament to answer if we have space for original big screen summer hit, from Nope, to Where Crawdads Sing to Bullet Train.