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Eric Prime

Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

By Eric Prime, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Ehh… I don’t want to get too much of a reputation as the splitting hairs over semantics guy, but sometimes splitting hairs is important, so here goes 😛  

 

Sure, it is true that the data in hand does not say 28-30. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range.   
 

But I would say, it is equally not the case that the data in hand says 24-25. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range. Maybe the latter set of assumptions is better, but an actual affirmative case needs to be made for that — using the straight t-x comp implicitly embeds the rest of run sales ratio being equal to the cumulative sales ratio at t-x, which is a baseline heuristic that is probably pretty easy to outperform with some other pretty simply heuristics that incorporate e.g. recent pace, length of sales window, and raw level of sales.
 

I understand the appeal of the t-x comp from a computational convenience standpoint, and I’m not saying they should be retired or anything, but I think it’s a bit pernicious as far as implying a certain number as a sort of “what it’s looking like right now” which is not necessarily what it’s actually looking at right then in any meaningful sense.

My general opinion is that the sales numbers at the bottom of the U-curve can be kinda fluky, because its a mix of fans late to the party and the GA getting in early, and nearly impossible to distinguish between the two groups

 

But we can table this discussion here, because I'm working on something(s) for the tracking thread that I hope to have up later this week (and I agree with a lot of what you're saying, except for the length of sales period mattering if its at least ~21-24 days) 🙃

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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

Posted
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1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

It would be 30M if Universal did a good job of marketing in the final 15 days (which they didn't maybe because of current events). 

 

But still very happy for Scott, with such good reception i can see 3x multiplier happening, UNI just needs to give it 45 days before PVOD.

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Cheddar Please Indie Sensation

Cheddar Please

Posted
Posted

The thing is, I feel like basically every Toy Story film since 2 has had the hurdle of having to justify it's existence in order to succeed at the box office. TS3 and TS4 made it look easy, but that's only because they were truly excellent films. On the other hand, Lightyear, clearly had nothing to justify itself beyond a corporate extension of a franchise that was clearly done, hence the precipitous drop in interest once the reviews came out. (Also Disney conditioning people to wait for D+ didn't help)

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Wild stuff that Lightyear is looking to challenge The Good Dinosaur for Pixar's lowest-grossing theatrical release (not counting Onward's killed-by-COVID brief run). If Strange World also tanks around Thanksgiving both of Disney's animation studios will likely going to take note about staying away for good from sci-fi/action-driven 'toons after Atlantis and Treasure Planet were also among the biggest bombs in the studio's history about 20 years ago.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think people are now acting like Lightyear was always gonna bomb.

 

I think when project was announced, it did felt big. The first trailer was interesting but whatever followed later couldn't get the film buzz.

 

On top of that film turned out average which killed any chances it had left.

I mean, yeah, people always want to rationalise things in hindsight and act like "people should've seen it coming" at anything. But in reality most only started to realise the film was going to underperform near release and if you flash back to the start of the year a good amount of people even though it was a billion ww contender.

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

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So how long will releases like Turning Red be eligible for Oscars? Like the whole release on streaming AND theaters at the same time kind of deal?

Is that just the future or did they make an exception for COVID?

Just trying to figure out this new Pixar future now that Lightyear is a dud.

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SchumacherFTW Global Phenomenon

SchumacherFTW

Posted
Posted
Just now, cannastop said:

So how long will releases like Turning Red be eligible for Oscars? Like the whole release on streaming AND theaters at the same time kind of deal?

Is that just the future or did they make an exception for COVID?

Just trying to figure out this new Pixar future now that Lightyear is a dud.

They changed the rules back to having to release theatrically in qualifying markets I believe

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wild stuff that Lightyear is looking to challenge The Good Dinosaur for Pixar's lowest-grossing theatrical release (not counting Onward's killed-by-COVID brief run). If Strange World also tanks around Thanksgiving both of Disney's animation studios will likely going to take note about staying away for good from sci-fi/action-driven 'toons after Atlantis and Treasure Planet were also among the biggest bombs in the studio's history about 20 years ago.

"Looking to challenge" looks more like a certainty to me at this point.

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wild stuff that Lightyear is looking to challenge The Good Dinosaur for Pixar's lowest-grossing theatrical release (not counting Onward's killed-by-COVID brief run). If Strange World also tanks around Thanksgiving both of Disney's animation studios will likely going to take note about staying away for good from sci-fi/action-driven 'toons after Atlantis and Treasure Planet were also among the biggest bombs in the studio's history about 20 years ago.

 

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

"Looking to challenge" looks more like a certainty to me at this point.

With Minions next week, it will probably have another 50% drop, even with July 4 weekend

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wild stuff that Lightyear is looking to challenge The Good Dinosaur for Pixar's lowest-grossing theatrical release (not counting Onward's killed-by-COVID brief run). If Strange World also tanks around Thanksgiving both of Disney's animation studios will likely going to take note about staying away for good from sci-fi/action-driven 'toons after Atlantis and Treasure Planet were also among the biggest bombs in the studio's history about 20 years ago.

Eh I think Strange World will do whatever Raya was going to do without a Pandemic.

 

Whatever that means.

 

Maybe $120 dom.

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