THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

You would have the same problem with Metacritic where L&T is 57 and Dominion is 38. RT and Metacritic just measure different things, but even the traditional critics liked L&T more than Dominion (I also personally preferred Dominion). 

oh I know. I was more talking about 57 sounded more like a fair kind of number for the movie I saw. 
 

I think Dominion has way more problems than L&T, but I definitely had a better time with it.  

[vale9001]

Families are really missing for disney movies.

I'm blaming Disney plus for Light year result (at least in part) and i'm blaming disney plus for Thor results in the families demo. Dads and mums are already paying for D+ (plus netflix and other adult services for them) so they are saying to their childen "'I'm not gonna spend 50 dollars for the screen, shut the fu.k up, we're gonna wait 45 days". 

Edited July 10, 2022 by vale9001

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Yeah, one thing common with both that they both didn't deliver what they promised.

 

Dr Strange promised Multiverse of Madness, it delivered barely little Multiversal Madness.

 

Dominion promised Dinosaurs living with humans and resulting consequences, and it delivered a sequel of A Bug's Life. 

Out of likes... But, very much agree. Now, we have another case of this but because it delivered what many view as a sketch/improv romantic comedy instead of an action packed Thor actioner with humor infused. I'd imagine TLT will follow similar patterns to those two. Because of summer days, I'd expect better legs than DS2 had for sure. But, it won't match JWDs OW multi. 

 

Had all three been better received by the GA, all three should've or could've added at least 50M+ DOM to the their totals even with each having the same exact OW DOM had for more respectable DOM finishes given the OW of each. I think in a weird way it's a good sign for box office as the audience is there but the movies just have be better received by the viewing public. With better reception, all three do 1B+ WW too. I haven't kept up with JWD so maybe it is going to do that? I just meant more so each of the three would've comfortably done if the reception of each wasn't as mixed.

[Ezen Baklattan]

18 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

The movie just really hasn't be doing well

I feel like the platform release worked in EEAAO's favor so it had time to build word of mouth, which is interesting when the studio's been relatively more bullish about pushing things wide as soon as possible.

 

With Marcrl, it doesn't seem to be hitting that same stride? But even then demand for it always felt kinda limited, sad as it is to say. For what its worth, the PTA holds haven't been terrible. I'm just curious how many theaters it ultimately goes wide in next week.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

oh I know. I was more talking about 57 sounded more like a fair kind of number for the movie I saw. 
 

I think Dominion has way more problems than L&T, but I definitely had a better time with it.  

Dominion didn't have Bud White prancing around with a hilarious Greek accent so no. 

 

Kidding aside, I definitely had more fun with TLT. JWD essentially bored me the entire runtime outside of a few small fits and starts of fun that gave me a smile.

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Out of likes... But, very much agree. Now, we have another case of this but because it delivered what many view as a sketch/improv romantic comedy instead of an action packed Thor actioner with humor infused. I'd imagine TLT will follow similar patterns to those two. Because of summer days, I'd expect better legs than DS2 had for sure. But, it won't match JWDs OW multi. 

 

Had all three been better received by the GA, all three should've or could've added at least 50M+ DOM to the their totals even with each having the same exact OW DOM had for more respectable DOM finishes given the OW of each. I think in a weird way it's a good sign for box office as the audience is there but the movies just have be better received by the viewing public. With better reception, all three do 1B+ WW too. I haven't kept up with JWD so maybe it is going to do that? I just meant more so each of the three would've comfortably done if the reception of each wasn't as mixed.

Has there been any previous year where 3 biggest movies of summer, all of them failed together like this year?

 

Not only all 3 failed but none of the 3 will top the summer as Top Gun Maverick has them left in fumes.

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Has there been any previous year where 3 biggest movies of summer, all of them failed together like this year?

 

Not only all 3 failed but none of the 3 will top the summer as Top Gun Maverick has them left in fumes.

That year with Pirates 3, Spiderman 3, and Shrek 3. Super letdown. All 3 could have made so much more if they were good. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Has there been any previous year where 3 biggest movies of summer, all of them failed together like this year?

 

Not only all 3 failed but none of the 3 will top the summer as Top Gun Maverick has them left in fumes.

Maybe when Guardians came out? No one expect 335M+ DOM from that one.

 

Definitely wouldn't say any of them failed. More so underwhelmed given expectations. I can't call 410M+, 375M+ and 350M+ DOM failing. Two increased from their predecessor and one lightly decreased. All did fine but none were as big we hoped on this forum... That's for sure.

[Issac Newton]

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
$241K Weekend (Est.)
286 Screens / $843 Avg.
Weekend 16 / -56% Change
$67.63M Total (North America)#EverythingEverywhere #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) July 10, 2022

[wildphantom]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Dominion didn't have Bud White prancing around with a hilarious Greek accent so no. 

 

Kidding aside, I definitely had more fun with TLT. JWD essentially bored me the entire runtime outside of a few small fits and starts of fun that gave me a smile.

I think that so much of Dominion was so all over the shop made me engage with it more than L&T. Lol. Like I was more entertained by it for all the wrong reasons! 
 

I’m not disagreeing L&T isn’t the better movie because it clearly is, but it felt like the most phoned in.  I could have done with some locusts. 

[M37]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

MCU stuff released in July over the recent past...

Homecoming 2.85 OW multiplier 334M DOM 

Far From Home ??? OW multiplier as it opened on a Tuesday... Still, legged it out to 390M DOM

Ant Man 3.16 OW multiplier 181M DOM

Ant Man and Wasp 2.86 OW multiplier 217M DOM

 

Summer days really helps inflate the legs for everything but with those recent multi numbers, I'd think a 2.5+ multi for Thor 4 should happen. Seems a reasonable expectation at the moment.

Typically, and very consistently pre-pandemic, the post-July 4th tentpole made about half its gross in the first 7 days of release (2x Opening Week). So where will Thor be by Thursday? Something like this

 

Sa: $41.75

Su: $33.5 (-20%)

M: $13.5 (-60%)

Tu: $14.5 (+7%)

W: $10.25 (-29%)

Th: $9.0 (-12%)

TOTAL = $192M

 

From there, 2x would be $384, and the floor is probably BW's ugly 1.74x from last year, or $334M. So $350 seems fairly attainable, maybe even $360. For comparison, JWD made $191 in its first full week, and will be at ~$350 after this weekend, albeit with some Father's Day and Independence Week boosts included that Thor won't have, but also more competition in weeks 2-5

[Eric Prime]

35 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

This number seems a bit underwhelming to me. It’s a little under $2400 per day per theater, or roughly what TGM earned per theater last Sunday (day 38). It doesn’t seem to be crossing over much to families; but then again the marketing for the film can’t break the grip the Minions/Dinos/Space Rangers/Streaming Services have on families right now.

Is Marcel being aimed at families at all though? This seems like something almost exclusively aimed at 20something hipsters

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That year with Pirates 3, Spiderman 3, and Shrek 3. Super letdown. All 3 could have made so much more if they were good. 

Oh, but i guess those 3 were still 3 biggest movies of summer, here TGM has these 3 beat.

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

Also Fun Fact, Spiderman 3 might've failed at most other places, but it was the 3rd ever Hollywood All Time Blockbuster in India. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Is Marcel being aimed at families at all though? This seems like something almost exclusively aimed at 20something hipsters

It actually seemed aimed even older and a bit more specifically at 30 something hipsters which shrinks the audience even more. It's made by 30 something hipsters for 30 something hipsters. EEAAO was made for film twitter, film hipsters, all hipsters.

[grim22]

14 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Has there been any previous year where 3 biggest movies of summer, all of them failed together like this year?

 

Not only all 3 failed but none of the 3 will top the summer as Top Gun Maverick has them left in fumes.

The threequels disappoinment of 2007. Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3. All of them were supposed to be huge 400M+ behemoths, but disappointed quality and box office wise. It allowed Transformers to do well as the fresh property in that summer.

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It actually seemed aimed even older and a bit more specifically at 30 something hipsters which shrinks the audience even more. It's made by 30 something hipsters for 30 something hipsters. EEAAO was made for film twitter, film hipsters, all hipsters.

EEAAO was better multiverse story than DS3, NWH, Spdervese combined. Crazy how a no budget film like that blow up so much. Give Yeoh the Oscar already.

[setna]

37 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

A bit more accurate...!!

In its 7th wknd #TopGunMaverick ranked 3rd with $15.5M, off 40%, boosting domestic #boxoffice cume to incredible $597.4M. All set to break $600M on MON or TUE - just the 12th film to ever do it! 3rd biggest 7th wknd gross of all-time behind only Avatar & Titanic. #TomCruise

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) July 10, 2022

 

...sad, couln´t hold well this weekend, the dream of 700 M i think is gone...

[Cooper Legion]

51 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

MCU stuff released in July over the recent past...

Homecoming 2.85 OW multiplier 334M DOM 

Far From Home ??? OW multiplier as it opened on a Tuesday... Still, legged it out to 390M DOM

Ant Man 3.16 OW multiplier 181M DOM

Ant Man and Wasp 2.86 OW multiplier 217M DOM

 

Summer days really helps inflate the legs for everything but with those recent multi numbers, I'd think a 2.5+ multi for Thor 4 should happen. Seems a reasonable expectation at the moment.

 

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Typically, and very consistently pre-pandemic, the post-July 4th tentpole made about half its gross in the first 7 days of release (2x Opening Week). So where will Thor be by Thursday? Something like this

 

Sa: $41.75

Su: $33.5 (-20%)

M: $13.5 (-60%)

Tu: $14.5 (+7%)

W: $10.25 (-29%)

Th: $9.0 (-12%)

TOTAL = $192M

 

From there, 2x would be $384, and the floor is probably BW's ugly 1.74x from last year, or $334M. So $350 seems fairly attainable, maybe even $360. For comparison, JWD made $191 in its first full week, and will be at ~$350 after this weekend, albeit with some Father's Day and Independence Week boosts included that Thor won't have, but also more competition in weeks 2-5

 

On 7/7/2022 at 6:52 PM, Legion and Thunder said:

Moving this away from buzz:

Movie	DOM	Wk1 cume	pre-Wk1	True Wk1	True OW Multi
Iron Man	$318,604,126	126,634,395	3500000	123,134,395	2.56
Incredible Hulk	$134,806,913	74,919,370	0	74,919,370	1.80
Iron Man 2	$312,433,331	159,159,871	7500000	151,659,871	2.01
Thor	$181,030,624	84,752,317	3250000	81,502,317	2.18
Captain America: The First Avenger	$176,654,505	91,867,268	4000000	87,867,268	1.96
The Avengers	$623,357,910	270,019,373	18700000	251,319,373	2.41
Iron Man 3	$408,992,272	212,421,084	15600000	196,821,084	2.00
The Dark World	$206,362,140	108,511,114	7100000	101,411,114	1.96
The Winter Soldier	$259,746,958	117,608,171	10200000	107,408,171	2.32
Guardians of the Galaxy	$333,714,112	134,390,839	11200000	123,190,839	2.62
Age of Ultron	$459,005,868	235,655,468	27600000	208,055,468	2.07
Ant-man	$180,202,163	81,310,529	6400000	74,910,529	2.32
Civil War	$408,084,349	223,329,078	25000000	198,329,078	1.93
Doctor Strange	$232,641,920	109,982,169	9400000	100,582,169	2.22
Guardians Vol 2	$389,813,101	183,157,419	17000000	166,157,419	2.24
Homecoming	$334,201,140	163,070,314	15400000	147,670,314	2.16
Ragnarok	$315,058,289	154,989,707	14500000	140,489,707	2.14
Black Panther	$700,059,566	291,954,422	25200000	266,754,422	2.53
Infinity War	$678,815,482	338,332,540	39000000	299,332,540	2.14
Ant-Man and the Wasp	$216,648,740	103,985,225	11500000	92,485,225	2.22
Captain Marvel	$426,829,839	196,895,933	20700000	176,195,933	2.30
Endgame	$858,373,000	473,894,638	60000000	413,894,638	1.93
Far From Home*	$390,532,085	229,229,305	92,483,850	136,745,455	2.18
Black Widow (PA)	$183,651,655	105,761,671	13200000	92,561,671	1.84
Shang-Chi (delta peak)	$224,543,292	109,815,141	8800000	101,015,141	2.14
Eternals	$164,870,264	91,265,255	9500000	81,765,255	1.90
NWH	$804,617,772	385,865,477	50000000	335,865,477	2.25
DS2	$411,300,000	230,859,523	36000000	194,859,523	1.93

 

So was targeting DS2, like @StormbreakerXXR. As you can see 2.15 is average, 1.95 for weak ones and 2.35 or so for great ones. SC and BP are dragged down by mons, but seasonal effects mostly disappear.

About 1.9 with this buzz I'd say. So from M37's weekdays (which are quite close to mine) I would add (192-29)*.9=147 for 340ish finish.

[titanic2187]

Almost all MCU movies with Thor in long hair were bad.