NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[The Panda]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Yes they do.

 

@M37
 

Lawrence of Arabia

Dune

Tremors

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sahara

The Mummy

The Mummy Returns

Flight of the Phoenix

Paris, TX

El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie

The Prince of Egypt

The Ten Commandments

Star Wars

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Raiders of the List Ark

The Lion King

The Lion King Remake

Aladdin

Aladdin Remake

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade

Logan

The Passion of the Christ

Ben-Hur

Gladiator

The Searchers

American Sniper

The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

Thelma & Louise

Kill Bill Vol 2

Brokeback Mountain

True Grit (2010)

Cowboys and Aliens

John Carter

Django Unchained

Erin Brockovich

Contact

Rango

Independence Day

Three Kings

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Sicario

Into the Wild

Bagdad Cafe

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

The Martian

Raising Arizona

The Revenant

Back to the Future Part III

Tombstone

Dances with Wolves

Unforgiven

 

Should I keep going on?

Edited July 22, 2022 by The Panda

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

He’s not a just a King, he’s Daddy Emperor Peele.

 

I love RDCWorld, didn’t know you were a fan @Eric the Tethered. Did you hear about their housing situation?

I have no idea what you're talking about and don't really care lol. I just think their videos are funny

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates (studio source):

 

Nope 20.0

Thor 5.6

Minions 5.1

Craw 3.1

TGM 2.8

Is the 20m with or without previews?

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Eric the Tethered said:

I have no idea what you're talking about and don't really care lol. I just think their videos are funny

I’ve been a fan of their skits since 2014. I was more so reference the fact they lost their house as of late.

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates (studio source):

 

Nope 20.0

Thor 5.6

Minions 5.1

Craw 3.1

TGM 2.8

 

Stay above 10m TGM 

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

Is the 20m with or without previews?

Should be with preview, that would be a crazy high IM for true Friday to fly that high from preview. 

[Joel M]

20m is good right? Does it make 50m+ more likely?

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Joel M said:

20m is good right? Does it make 50m+ more likely?

 

Would need to increase like 20% from True Friday for that to happen and this seems more like a Friday friendly movie. Guessing more like 46-48m.

Edited July 22, 2022 by MrPink

[harrisonisdead]

5 minutes ago, Joel M said:

20m is good right? Does it make 50m+ more likely?

Feel like it needs ~$22M Fri to make $50M likely

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, Joel M said:

20m is good right? Does it make 50m+ more likely?

If it follows Black Phone's Saturday and Sunday holds, we get 46.1M, and the IM from Friday to previews is already slightly below that movie. Of course it's still early, so that number could still increase later today.

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, YM! said:

Is the 20m with or without previews?

With 

[The Dark Alfred]

Very good start for Nope, that locks up 100m again for Peele. Nice little battle for 2nd and 4th between Thor/Minions and Craw/TGM.

[grey ghost]

Random: "Why does Nope need to hit the arbitrary number of 50 million?"

 

Box Office Nerd: "Reasons". 

[Eric Duncan]

Pretty sure Thor's missing 20M if that Friday # holds. Bleak AF stuff.

[Eric Duncan]

Upside is that Minions should do about 17.5M and Crawdads should comfortably get a double digits second weekend. Paves the way for a sweet run.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

You cannot just go and say any of the numerous counterexamples are just special cases.

 

Your argument sums down to:

 

“My take is obviously right because I thought of it, do not argue with me.”

 

which is a bad faith argument lol. Especially since Nope is about to open to over 40m (maybe even 50m) which is good for an original horror movie.

IMDB and MC ratings:

 

True Grit = 7.6 / 80

Mad Max = 8.1 / 90

Logan = 8.1 / 77

Dune = 8.0 / 74

 

For reference, TGM = 8.6 / 77, and the IMDB top 100 cuts off at 8.3, so yes, I think it’s fair to say these are exceptional movies and therefore exceptions 

 

It’s fair to say my initial comment was too simplified (if not a bit tongue in cheek), which is why I expanded and clarified. And to be clear, it wasn’t about Nope anyway, as it’s got the sci-fi/CGI angle covered anyway, but in reference to Beast, a somewhat slower paced film set in the African desert 

But feel free to peruse the top 10/20/30 grossing movies of the last 10-20 years, because if I’m as wrong as you claim, should be easy to find such consistently successful movies, right?

[John Marston]

Minions will overtake Thor I think soon. Lol

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Early Fri estimates (studio source):

 

Nope 20.0

Thor 5.6

Minions 5.1

Craw 3.1

TGM 2.8

Some weekend estimates from those early numbers

 

Nope = $45-$47M

Thor = $19-$19.5M

Minions = $16.5M

Crawdads = $10.5

Top Gun = $10.0M

[The Dark Alfred]

Minions will be closer to Thor and TGM might overtake Craw. Nice weekend altogether. Happy for Nope and TBP doing it for the genre this summer.

[ThomasNicole]

Very nice for Nope, hopefully it can rise to +21M, but it's great already. 

 

Another win for non-franchises projects we love to see it