NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[MrPink]

Yeah I think 120-130m is a good target for this with about 200m WW. Competition is really dead and I think the WOM is positive enough to have decent legs (also assuming it's gonna be closer to higher 40s).

Edited July 22, 2022 by MrPink

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, p a p i said:

Daddy Peele 

Why didn't you say Papa Peele for alliteration purposes? I know we already have Papa Nolan and Feige, but "Papa Peele" has a good ring to it.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

Yeah I think 120-130m is a good target for this with about 200m WW.

Bullet Train could beat it, at least WW is assured imo.

[MrPink]

Just now, Maggie said:

Bullet Train could beat it, at least WW is assured imo.

 

Yes I think Bullet Train wins WW but I'm not sure where to think domestically. Not feeling the same kind of buzz anymore but as Nope just proved, it can pick up in a hurry.

[Krissykins]

$10m+ second weekend looking likely for Crawdads. 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Plot twist movies generally attract legs, see gone girl, parasite, KO. I am not sure if nope is one of the film belong to this category, but the divisiveness of wom means the hold similar to Us is more likely than to GO.

 

Should be in the range of 45m. We need 2.5x legs to have another 100m hit. Summer midweek should give it a boost, if not this is FB3 all over again.

Pencil in at least 2x the opening week, maybe more with so few August releases, so early ballpark is $120-$130M, unlikely to catch Elvis ($140-$150)

[harrisonisdead]

6 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Why didn't you say Papa Peele for alliteration purposes? I know we already have Papa Nolan and Feige, but "Papa Peele" has a good ring to it.

Papa Peele, Father Feige, uhhhhh... Nana Nolan?

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Yeah I think 120-130m is a good target for this with about 200m WW. Competition is really dead and I think the WOM is positive enough to have decent legs (also assuming it's gonna be closer to higher 40s).

August seems to have at least one horror/thriller type of movie a week on average (Bodies Bodies Bodies, Fall, Beast, The Invitation) but all of them look to be rather niche products except for Beast to an extent (Candyman numbers are probably its best case scenario). Legs should be fine, next weekend's hold probably won't be bad since it's keeping IMAX for two full weeks due to contracts (Super-Pets is taking over PLFs during the day but I doubt it'll cut much into its business since this is bound to be much more of a night movie anyway).

Edited July 22, 2022 by filmlover

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Why didn't you say Papa Peele for alliteration purposes? I know we already have Papa Nolan and Feige, but "Papa Peele" has a good ring to it.

Yes but Daddy is hotter than Papa.

[Eric Duncan]

Bullet Train feels like a 130-145M grosser to me. Maybe even higher since there's nothing out until October. Sales in Philly are already rock solid and while early reactions are always vague, the early word seems to indicate it'll be a crowdpleaser. Awareness and interest data is also very strongly in Bullet Train's favor judging by The Quorum.

[ThomasNicole]

Audience reception online doesn't seem bad at all. 78% for a movie like this is very decent.

 

I can see a B+, which would be great. 

 

I think 47-48M OW, but 50 is still possible, 7.8x isn't that high. Still, huge success anyway.  

[Jonwo]

I'm shocked Nope has a $68m budget, I thought maybe $40-50m tops but it'll still be profitable for Universal. 

 

 

[filmnerdjamie]

It was never realistically going to hit $70M+ after the divisive reaction to Us (outside of Lupita's performance) plus the straight-up negative reactions to The Twilight Zone revival he produced/headlined* and Hunters. Plus the very questionable marketing materials for Nope.

 

This was destined for a fall comparative to Us. I won't lie. I had this as low as $35M.

 

So I'd say anything $40M+ can be perceived/spun as a win. Barring good word of mouth which is very much up in the air.

 

We're seeing it tonight and I can't wait.

 

*By multiple accounts, he wasn't that involved creatively. But he most certainly was using his Get Out goodwill. One can't have it both ways. It's entirely fair to hold this against him.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'm shocked Nope has a $68m budget, I thought maybe $40-50m tops but it'll still be profitable for Universal. 

 

 

Shooting with IMAX cameras probably doesn't come cheap, I imagine.

[The Panda]

While waiting for Friday numbers you could work on your top 100 lists which are due in exactly 1 week!

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

August seems to have at least one horror/thriller type of movie a week on average (Bodies Bodies Bodies, Fall, Beast, The Invitation) but all of them look to be rather niche products except for Beast to an extent (Candyman numbers are probably its best case scenario). Legs should be fine, next weekend's hold probably won't be bad since it's keeping IMAX for two full weeks due to contracts (Super-Pets is taking over PLFs during the day but I doubt it'll cut much into its business since this is bound to be much more of a night movie anyway).

@Shawn has Beast at 9-14M in today's new forecast. The trailer has gotten muted reactions both times I've seen it (including Nope last night) so I'm not expecting much unless WOM is good.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, harrisonisdead said:

At around the same point, Us had a 69%, 3.5/5 average, though that was before RT introduced verified audience scores. Still, audience reception does seem generally more positive.

 

 

All Audience score (both verified and unverified) is 74% 3.9/5 average  so already higher than Us. It should be because there's no overexplaining the mystery element nor twist that retroactively docks the whole movie points. It's a very straightforward horror comedy that's good at balancing 2 different tones. Also as well directed as you could expect from Peele. 

 

People want entertainment. This is entertaining. Even negative reviews give it that much and that's what matters in summer. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Valonqar

[M37]

US audiences seem to have a general distaste for movies where the landscape is sandy

 

Good: Space, Jungle, Water

Bad: Desert, Forrest, Mountains  

 

Yes, there are exceptions, they don’t all need to be listed 

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

US audiences seem to have a general distaste for movies where the landscape is sandy

 

Good: Space, Jungle, Water

Bad: Desert, Forrest, Mountains  

 

Yes, there are exceptions, they don’t all need to be listed 

What??

 

Star Wars

Dune

Lawrence of Arabia

The Mummy

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Mad Max

Logan

THE ENTIRE WESTERN GENRE??

Edited July 22, 2022 by The Panda

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

What??

 

Star Wars

Dune

Lawrence of Arabia

The Mummy

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Mad Max

Logan

THE ENTIRE WESTERN GENRE??

They said they didn’t need to be listed