Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[interiorgatordecorator]

48 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

A lot of good info in that article….

 

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 and 15% of those advance ticket sales are for showtimes outside of opening weekend.

 

 

 

isnt that specific point insane?

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

isnt that specific point insane?

Not during the Christmas holidays. 

[hw64]

5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Not during the Christmas holidays. 

 

Is that based on a feeling or have you seen similar data for previous releases? Because we know Avatar 2 have been behaving in a very backloaded fashion in a lot of overseas markets, and it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that this is another sign of that kind of backloading.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Is that based on a feeling or have you seen similar data for previous releases? Because we know Avatar 2 have been behaving in a very backloaded fashion in a lot of overseas markets, and it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that this is another sign of that kind of backloading.

Previous releases. Even TFA had Christmas as the 3rd biggest presale day (over OW Sat and Sun).

 

https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-advance-ticket-sales-are-staggering-1201667547/amp/

[LPLC]

So guys if I want to recap correctly tell me if I'm wrong : 

 

ATWOW got avatar first had very good reactions, then for a few hours and since they reached a larger number they are now mixed with good but not exceptional scores on American sites like RT and Metacritic but also critics again less good on the English sites (however the first reactions in France seem good and I have no idea of the first reactions in China, Japan or South Korea for example).

 

On top of that, PS haven't been great either, especially in China where there are still COVID issues and therefore problems for Avatar 2. But, positive point we all know that A2 is not a frontloaded film and it will have good legs especially with the Christmas holidays and despite the calendar which is the worst for the second weekend.

 

It will be really interesting to follow this, it may be that this film does not exceed $2B and it may also exceed $3B even if we get closer and closer to the first option than the second

[LPLC]

After the first reactions I will reduce my projections to $2,4B - $2,6B between Titanic and AEG

[keysersoze123]

I would not worry about this movie's BO until OW at least. This will be a marathon than a sprint. I would ignore the skeptics for now. Reviews have done their job. Now its all about WOM. 

[XXR vs XXR]

37 minutes ago, LPLC said:

After the first reactions I will reduce my projections to $2,4B - $2,6B between Titanic and AEG

 

Wasn't your first prediction a few pages back $2.25B - $3.05B? So your new one isn't really a reduction, you just tightened up the window lol

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Looking at the 10 biggest OS markets, here is what I see as the minimum in each location....

 

• China - $375M
• South Korea - $85M 
• United Kingdom - $80M
• Japan - $75M 
• France - $75M
• Germany - $60M
• Mexico - $55M 
• India - $55M 
• Brazil - $45M 
• Australia - $45M 

 

These 10 markets alone are good for $950M at a minimum. My rough estimate for the remaining OS markets is $380M at a minimum That gives us at least $1.33B OS with merely average holiday legs. Anyone who would find this disappointing or lackluster needs to re-evaluate their expectations. 

[LPLC]

32 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Wasn't your first prediction a few pages back $2.25B - $3.05B? So your new one isn't really a reduction, you just tightened up the window lol

 

Yes I think $3B is unlikely now and I don't see it surpass AEG and the first Avatar

Edited December 14, 2022 by LPLC

[Juby]

After Deadline's and Charlie's forecasts I'm thinking about $215m OW domestic + at least $400m overseas this weekend (Dec 14th-18th). Imagine if the covid situation in China was different (they have to stop giving a f**k about it, like the rest of the world) and there was no WorldCup finals this weekend, this would have definitely beat Infinity War's worldwide opening as the 2nd biggest ever with $700-800m.

 

The same with final gross. Without covid restrictions in China and war in Ukraine, Avatar 2 would have finish with over $3b easily.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Juby

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

After Deadline's and Charlie's forecasts I'm thinking about $215m OW domestic 

It’ll be closer to $125M than $215M

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It’ll be closer to $225M than $215M

 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It’ll be closer to $125M than $215M

🥸 125 + 215 = 340

340 / 2 = 170

after running the numbers it can be said that XXR believes that Avatar: The Way of Water, the December 2022 mega blockbuster, will make less than $170m on it's opening weekend in the domestic market.

[Nero]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

🥸 125 + 215 = 340

340 / 2 = 170

after running the numbers it can be said that XXR believes that Avatar: The Way of Water, the December 2022 mega blockbuster, will make less than $170m on it's opening weekend in the domestic market.

Just go with my number (169,696,969) it satisfies everyone 🌚

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Previous releases. Even TFA had Christmas as the 3rd biggest presale day (over OW Sat and Sun).

 

https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-advance-ticket-sales-are-staggering-1201667547/amp/

Tbh I've always been very skeptical of that particular claim from Deadline. It just makes no sense to me that it could be the case, and they have given inaccurate presale information in the past.

[LPLC]

Sorry for the bad news but but the first sessions are good but far from excellent in France for A2 (not even half of NWH figures)

[simoimo19]

Everybody is stressed out due to world cup semifinal vs Morocco 

I think the coming days and holiday starting Saturday figures will be gigantic 

[LTHeroiques]

Paris - First showings in admissions (top 10 2022) :

 

Minions 2 – Il était une fois Gru : 7 817
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness : 7 305
Avatar : 6 718
Titanic : 6 638

 

AVATAR – LA VOIE DE L’EAU : 5 337

 

The Batman : 4 418
Black Panther – Wakanda Forever : 4 214
Le Chat Potté 2 – La dernière quête : 3 235
Thor – Love And Thunder : 3 112
Les Animaux Fantastiques 3 – Les secrets de Dumbledore : 2 879
Jurassic World – Le monde d’après : 2 642
Sonic 2 – Le film : 2 351
Top Gun – Maverick : 2 329

 

http://lestoilesheroiques.fr/2022/12/avatar-la-voie-de-leau-box-office.html