Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Mr Roark]

Come on the French all think about the WC now.

The film has been positively welcomed by the critics. On RT has almost the same score of the original. It’s been nominated everywhere. It’s backloaded by nature since it is not a nerd driven franchise and the WOM is in the A range. Will it crack $3B? No. Will it perform close to the original? No. But it will likely best TFA with half China and no CIS. I see a lot of pointless doom and gloom only because it likely won’t open in the $600/700M range ww.

Having said that: let’s go Marocco.

[XXR vs XXR]

Perhaps $18-22M through Sunday?

[MG10]

3 hours ago, simoimo19 said:

Everybody is stressed out due to world cup semifinal vs Morocco 

I think the coming days and holiday starting Saturday figures will be gigantic 

 

Why are they stressed if they have already lost? They just have to get ready for the bronze medal match with Croatia 😇

[Grebacio]

4 hours ago, LPLC said:

Sorry for the bad news but but the first sessions are good but far from excellent in France for A2 (not even half of NWH figures)

You know France is playing a semi final in 2 hours right?

[JustLurking]

Yeah absolutely no surprise here. France will be thinking about WC today and possibly throughout the whole weekend. Seems fine to me.

[MG10]

46 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

You know France is playing a semi final in 2 hours right?

 

It was a joke about Morocco having the victory already secured 😅

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 12/13/2022 at 10:56 AM, hw64 said:

 

For me, it tops Infinity War and falls between $650m and $720m or so.

Hollywood and worried theater owners are counting on the long-awaited sequel to close out 2022 in grand fashion after a tough fall season. If tracking is correct, The Way of Water should score a domestic debut of $150 million to $175 million, and $450 million to $550 million globally.

 

 

 

[marveldcfox]

On 12/13/2022 at 8:42 PM, Bruce said:

China OD perdiction of Maoyan:¥275m($40m)

That's below expectations. I was expecting 65M based on presales.

[marveldcfox]

2 hours ago, LTHeroiques said:

Paris - First showings in admissions (top 10 2022) :

 

Minions 2 – Il était une fois Gru : 7 817
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness : 7 305
Avatar : 6 718
Titanic : 6 638

 

AVATAR – LA VOIE DE L’EAU : 5 337

 

The Batman : 4 418
Black Panther – Wakanda Forever : 4 214
Le Chat Potté 2 – La dernière quête : 3 235
Thor – Love And Thunder : 3 112
Les Animaux Fantastiques 3 – Les secrets de Dumbledore : 2 879
Jurassic World – Le monde d’après : 2 642
Sonic 2 – Le film : 2 351
Top Gun – Maverick : 2 329

 

http://lestoilesheroiques.fr/2022/12/avatar-la-voie-de-leau-box-office.html

Disappointment. World cup will hurt this week and reviews too.

[YSLDC]

People sometimes fail to understand how big the World Cup is in most of the world. It's a terrible week to open in. 

[stephanos13]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

Disappointment. World cup will hurt this week and reviews too.

 

How the World Cup is going to hurt reviews?

 

Do you mean because of less box office it will have less word of mouth?

[MG10]

27 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

How the World Cup is going to hurt reviews?

 

Do you mean because of less box office it will have less word of mouth?

 

I'm pretty sure the reviews were a separate point. In any case i agree with him, with half of France spending the whole day (plus yesterday) thinking about the match, it's obvious that the release of Avatar went almost unnoticed, but for next week I expect a flat drop in both France and Argentina 👍

[Gkalaitza]

World cup final is gonna have a smaller but noticable  impact depending on country and timezone almost everywhere.

 

France, Spain , Germany ,Italy and the UK (Europe in general) will see a more obvious impact cause it would coincide with early afternoon screenings.  

 

Latam where the final starts around miday/morning will probably be less impacted directly.

 

Football loving countries in Asia may get their later night screenings impacted a bit. Also its probably  good excuse for Chinese people that are cautious of Covid to stay at home and watch it.

 

Also it probably affected presales no matter the time of day the Final starts in each country and it will reduce walkups since i would guess the 100s of millions that will watch the final will be less likely to do a 4 hour cinema impromptu trip later in the day. Not likely to schedule 2 "big" things in the same day

Edited December 14, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[cooldude97]

^{don't forget that for movies this long people usually have plan there whole day around it} 

[Gkalaitza]

Lets say 550 million watch the final (yes that many do) on Sunday and 450 million of them are in the 15 to 65 age group and watching it will make it considerably less likely for the vast majority of them to make a 4 hour movie trip the same day. Thats has to have some impact in the overall Sunday gross compared to what it would have done in a normal Sunday. But maybe that will mean a slightly bigger Sat 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[YSLDC]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Lets say 550 million watch the final (yes that many do) on Sunday and 450 million of them are in the 15 to 65 age group and watching it will make it considerably less likely for the vast majority of them to make a 4 hour movie trip the same day. Thats has to have some impact in the overall Sunday gross compared to what it would have done in a normal Sunday. But maybe that will mean a slightly bigger Sat 

550 million? 3.6 billion people watched the World Cup final in 2018.

 

But these figures aren't important in my opinion. It's more about the zeitgeist. All I see people talking about is the World Cup. 

[Gkalaitza]

And of course ,as i know all too well, if only a 1-2 of people among a larger friend group want to watch the football match then the movies will have  to go to another day for everyone 

[Gkalaitza]

5 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

550 million? 3.6 billion people watched the World Cup final in 2018.

 

But these figures aren't important in my opinion. It's more about the zeitgeist. All I see people talking about is the World Cup. 

Nah 3.6 billion watched any of the 2018 World Cup matches. But still this World Cup has significantly more viewership as i read so it might go for a 800m peopel watching the entire match. Its a big one after all

[Andreas]

Argentina and France are in the Final. It's gonna be a huge one.

Argentina has Messi, France has a lot of superstars.

Therefore both Europe and LATAM should see a considerable drop in box office.

[Nero]

So final match is Argentina vs France which is going to be big. I assume avatar might debut around $550-600M, might even go lower.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Nero