Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Psylocke said:

I am glad this is releasing around the world and in most countries, and I am not wanting to spark something political since it is not allowed in this thread but I want to say that it sucks that  the majority peaceful people of Russia will not get to experience this movie like they did 13 years ago but I wish a miracle in current events would have happened that would make Russia see  it along with the majority of other countries.

 

It is unfortunate for the decent people of Russia but it is what it is at this point. Newly released US films won't be seen by 99% of people in Russia for a long time. 

 

[Juby]

On 12/8/2022 at 12:14 PM, Bruce said:

And Now China cinema recover at 52%
maybe 70% when Avatar arrived and recover soon during avatar release time(like 78-80% on second WE),we probably have a chance to see the great run here

 

Dec 10th was 74.4% and keep growing  On Thursday there should be over 80% open.

[LPLC]

My final WW predictions for A2 : 

 

OS : $1,3B - $1,6B

China : $400M - $700M

DOM : $550M - $750M with $163M OW

 

Total : $2,25B - $3,05B

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

My final WW predictions for A2 : 

 

OS : $1,3B - $1,6B

China : $400M - $700M

DOM : $550M - $750M with $163M OW

 

Total : $2,25B - $3,05B

 

Hedging your bets I see

[interiorgatordecorator]

any big local movies in any significant market coming in the next month?

Edited December 13, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

any big local in any significant market coming in the next month?

 

Wandering Earth 2 in China - Jan. 22

Depending on restrictions and all of that, it's probably a $750M grosser. 

 

[marveldcfox]

3 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

any big local movies in any significant market coming in the next month?

Wandering earth 2 in China - January 22

Pathan in India - December 25th and January 25

 

Both are big markets for Avatar 2. It will likely lose all the premium and imax screens to those local movies, so it will have to make bulk of its money in that 1 month time frame.

Edited December 13, 2022 by marveldcfox

[Andreas]

I'll stick to my guns and continue to be the pessimist here ($2B is a pessimistic prediction LOL)

 

DOM: ~$600M

China: ~$400M

OS-C-R: ~$1B

WW Total: ~$2B

[Issac Newton]

DOM - $1000M

CHN - $1000M

OSC - $1500M

 

Total - $3500M

 

*CHN includes Mainland China ($911M) , Hong Kong SAR ($39M) , Macau SAR ($1M) along with Taiwan ($49M).

 

Expectating UK, Korea, Japan with $450M. Germany, France, Italy & Spain with $350M. LATAM with $250M. ME+EA with $100M. Oceania with $100M. SEA+India with $150M ($85M SEA)

 

Rest of World including CIS (excl. Russia) - $100M

[XXR vs XXR]

+/- 5% Prediction 

 

$725M DOM

$550M China [Mainland]
$1300M OS-C-R

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

DOM - $1000M

CHN - $1000M

OSC - $1500M

 

Total - $3500M

 

*CHN includes Mainland China ($911M) , Hong Kong SAR ($39M) , Macau SAR ($1M) along with Taiwan ($49M).

 

Expectating UK, Korea, Japan with $450M. Germany, France, Italy & Spain with $350M. LATAM with $250M. ME+EA with $100M. Oceania with $100M. SEA+India with $150M ($85M SEA)

 

Rest of World including CIS (excl. Russia) - $100M

Some of those numbers are simply insane.

 

I can tell you something like France+Italy+Spain doing 350M is not even possible at this point for example. If it became the highest grossing film in Italy and Spain (a mark that I doubt is even theoretically achievable with the state of those markets) they would only add like 160M on current ER. France is obviously not doing 190.

 

I'm thinking a safer 750M DOM, 500M China, 1.15-1.2B OS-C. 2.3-2.35B ww. There's some wiggling room with China and OS-C potentially improving, and DOM going lower than that if walk-ups aren't there I think.

Edited December 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Some of those numbers are simply insane.

 

I can tell you something like France+Italy+Spain doing 350M is not even possible at this point for example. If it became the highest grossing film in Italy and Spain (a mark that I doubt is even theoretically achievable with the state of those markets) they would only add like 160M.

I thought something like $130M Germany, $120M France, $60M Spain, $40M Italy.. 

 

That's just an odd prediction as Numbers may go off by $50M-$100M... But that's something I would call success... Atleast, I want to see this defeating Endgame if not the original (⁠ノ⁠｀⁠⌒⁠´⁠)⁠ノ⁠┫⁠：⁠・⁠┻⁠┻

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

I thought something like $130M Germany, $120M France, $60M Spain, $40M Italy.. 

 

That's just an odd prediction as Numbers may go off by $50M-$100M... But that's something I would call success... Atleast, I want to see this defeating Endgame if not the original (⁠ノ⁠｀⁠⌒⁠´⁠)⁠ノ⁠┫⁠：⁠・⁠┻⁠┻

Ah fuck, I somehow managed to not see Germany LOL. Sorry about that. My bad. Still thinking some of these are crazy bullish though.

Edited December 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I thought something like $130M Germany, $120M France, $60M Spain, $40M Italy.. 

three of those are higher than my prediction, but they are all plausible. It all depends on the legs  

[MG10]

My final prediction is:

 

700M in Usa/Canada

500M in China (and what could have been without these restrictions...)

1.2B in the rest of the world, with over 500M from Europe

 

For a nice 2.4B total, without Russia and with China not at its best it wouldn't be a bad result...

Edited December 15, 2022 by MG10

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

Did out friend charlie just bring down his ow prediction by like 200 million or is he ignoring one of china or domestic?

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Did out friend charlie just bring down his ow prediction by like 200 million or is he ignoring one of china or domestic?

 

 

This is an international prediction, so everywhere but domestic.

[Issac Newton]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Did out friend charlie just bring down his ow prediction by like 200 million or is he ignoring one of china or domestic?

 

Tweet clearly says "Int rollout".. no mention of WW at all. He is talking about international weekend not Global weekend 

[XXR vs XXR]

So Charlie is basically predicting $600M global opening (Dec.14-18).

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

This is an international prediction, so everywhere but domestic.

 

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Tweet clearly says "Int rollout".. no mention of WW at all. He is talking about international weekend not Global weekend 

 

so IW is safe