Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Sophia Jane]

28 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Avatar was biggest Hollywood grosser in India, it absolutely did very well here.

I know that,and actually Avatar doing really great in france and Germany too,I just said the relative worse

[keysersoze123]

India presales update https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=7394

 

Quote

Avatar 2 is seeing the fastest advance in history as it had already collected 10 crore nett by close of business on Monday night and this is ten days before release. Dr Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness hit 10 crore nett nine days before release. The opening of advance weeks before release only started post the pandemic. 

 

@charlie Jatinder is this accurate?

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

India presales update https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=7394

 

 

@charlie Jatinder is this accurate?

It's similar to DS2, yes but numbers aren't ₹10cr but around ₹7cr

[marveldcfox]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It's similar to DS2, yes but numbers aren't ₹10cr but around ₹7cr

With highe ticket prices, it is closer to 10 cr. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It's similar to DS2, yes but numbers aren't ₹10cr but around ₹7cr

 

If China is able to provide 150 million ow (which I think is a bit too optimistic) does IW ow go down?

Edited December 8, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Nero]

51 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

If China is able to provide 150 million ow (which I think is a bit too optimistic) does IW ow go down?

Yes it can assuming other markets performance is good too.

[Issac Newton]

EDIT- I thought it was a Indian Box Office Thread

Edited December 8, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Sophia Jane]

Presale in China is insanely strong,it’s already crush the The water gate Bridge at same time

[Sophia Jane]

And Now China cinema recover at 52%
maybe 70% when Avatar arrived and recover soon during avatar release time(like 78-80% on second WE),we probably have a chance to see the great run here

 

[LPLC]

@charlie Jatinder Do you still think $30M is possible in Saudi Arabia ?

[LPLC]

On 9/25/2022 at 4:32 PM, Shanks said:

The WET Dream RUN of BLUE People:

	Country	Gross (in $)	Local Gross
Asia	India	$86.00	₹700 Crores
	South Korea	$115.00	15m Admission
	Japan	$140.00	¥20 Billion
	Taiwan	$34.50	NT$ 1.1 Billion
	Hong Kong	$25.00	HK$ 200m
	Malaysia	$17.50	RM80 Million
	Philipines	$29.00	₱1.700 Billion
	Indonesia	$30.00	RP450 Billion
	South East Asia	$63.50
	Middle East	$110.00
	Russia/CIS	$5.00
	Rest	$6.00
		$661.50
Oceania + Europe	Australia	$71.00	AU$110
	New Zealand	$10.00
	UK	$120.00	£110
	France	$135.80	€140
	Germany	$97.00	€100
	Italy	$58.20	€60
	Spain	$67.90	€70
	Netherlands	$19.40	€20
	Nordic	$43.65	€45
	Rest	$67.90	€70
		$690.85
Latin America	Mexico	$74.00	MXN $1,500
	Brazil	$62.00	R$330.00
	Rest	$82.00
		$218.00
Africa	Africa	$10.00
	OS- China	$1,580.35
	China	840	RMB 6 Billion
	US	1000
		$3,420.35

In this wet dream run, ASIA ($680m) even without CHINA really over-powers whole of EUROPE ($610m) now.  Also, It is tougher for EUROPE to put out those numbers than for ASIA. If Just Japan, South Korea or India over-perform, they can reach $650m but Europe needs almost all countries to perform their BEST.

It is tough to believe but Exactly two year ago, this Chart with almost same LOCAL Gross numbers was touching 4.1 Billion~  but now, it's down to 3.4 Billion~ [China tops out at 850m...even when it will outgross TBALC in LC.] 

@Shanks have your predictions changed with the recent news or do they stay the same ?

[LPLC]

On 8/31/2022 at 6:03 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

OS-C: At current exchange rates, I am coming around $1.55-1.6B. Expand the range with $1.5-1.65B.

 

	Country	Gross (in $)	Gross (in lc)	Admits	Admits (Avatar)
Asia	India	$75.00	₹6,000	20.00	9.00
	South Korea	$125.00		13.00	13.40
	Japan	$100.00	¥1,400	8.50	10.30
	Taiwan	$35.00		3.50	3.40
	Hong Kong	$25.00		1.70	1.40
	South East Asia	$155.00		34.00	10.00
	Middle East	$112.00		10.25	5.50
	Russia/CIS	$5.00		1.25	14.25
	Rest	$6.00		1.50	0.50
Oceania	Australia	$79.00	AU$115	6.25	7.50
	New Zealand	$11.00		1.00	1.10
Europe	UK	$133.00	£115	11.00	11.50
	France	$120.00	€120	11.75	14.80
	Germany	$100.00	€100	9.00	11.30
	Italy	$45.00	€45	6.00	7.50
	Spain	$50.00	€50	6.50	9.50
	Netherlands	$18.00	€18	1.40	1.70
	Nordic	$56.50		3.50	4.00
	Rest	$107.50		15.00	18.00
Latin America	Mexico	$60.00	MXN $1,200	16.00	10.20
	Brazil	$60.00	R$330.00	15.00	9.10
	Rest	$90.00		20.00	12.50
Africa	Africa	$10.00		2.00	1.70
	Total	$1,578.00		218.10	188.15

 

Have assumed that it won't release in Russia. Developed markets i.e. Europe, Japan, Oceania am expecting drop in admits around 10-25%.

 

China: Can see it doing both $600M and $900M i.e. around 75-100M admits.

 

DOM: Avatar had around 75M admits. Conventionally that would mean around 55M for sequel, which shall be around $750-800M but if TGM can do 60M and more importantly NWH can do 67M, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. So around $800-1050M with 55-70M admits.

 

WW: $2.9-3.6B with 340-400M admits.

 

If release in Russia, take another $65-75M or so.

And you @charlie Jatinder ?

[Borobudur]

On 12/8/2022 at 7:14 PM, Bruce said:

And Now China cinema recover at 52%
maybe 70% when Avatar arrived and recover soon during avatar release time(like 78-80% on second WE),we probably have a chance to see the great run here

 

I know everyone now is very optimistic about China situation but easing could trigger a huge infection wave soon. The wave will come fast and in just 2 weeks, the entire China could get overwhelmed and the government will again impose some restriction which for sure will first impact cinema business. 

 

Of course now the number of cases is on decreasing trend, but when the wave rises, the cases will jump quick and intense,  I am still pegging my prediction for China box office at $350m, mainly because I suspect some form of restriction will resume down the road. 

[Mr Roark]

You are very pessimistic tho, and others maybe are too optimistic. I’d go with a ~$475M final but I’m dreaming for at least $100M more…

Edited December 9, 2022 by Mr Roark

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

You are very pessimistic tho, and others maybe are too optimistic. I’d go with a ~$475M final but I’m dreaming for at least $100M more…

It is never about the faith in the movie. If it is that easy I would call a $700m from China alone but unfortunately the situation is just too fluid over there for me to ignore altogether.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

It is never about the faith in the movie. If it is that easy I would call a $700m from China alone but unfortunately the situation is just too fluid over there for me to ignore altogether.

I would go further than this, the movie will actually be the best performer ever in China for it's conditions

[The GOAT]

Dollar Strength Index (DXY)

2009: 77

2022: 105

 

If it released next year, it might've been similar to 2009.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Dollar Strength Index (DXY)

2009: 77

2022: 105

 

If it released next year, it might've been similar to 2009.

 

It's going to do $2.5B WW even with a strong dollar. If it had 2009 ER also, we'd be looking at $3.5-4B.

[Psylocke]

On 12/8/2022 at 3:05 AM, Bruce said:

Presale in China is insanely strong,it’s already crush the The water gate Bridge at same time

🥰

[Psylocke]

I am glad this is releasing around the world and in most countries, and I am not wanting to spark something political since it is not allowed in this thread but I want to say that it sucks that  the majority peaceful people of Russia will not get to experience this movie like they did 13 years ago but I wish a miracle in current events would have happened that would make Russia see  it along with the majority of other countries.