Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[thajdikt]

Considering it got a Veterans Day boost last week a 62,8% drop ain´t the worst thing in the world. Especially if it can do well next weekend. It survived the week at least. 

[Issac Newton]

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

 

Title	Estimated weekend	% change	Locations	Location change	Average	Total	Weekend	Distributor
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$67,300,000	-63%	4,396		$15,309	$287,992,647	2	Walt Disney
The Menu	$9,000,000		3,211		$2,803	$9,000,000	1	Searchlight
The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2	$8,219,762		2,027		$4,055	$8,219,762	1	Fathom Events
Black Adam	$4,480,000	-44%	3,372	-231	$1,329	$156,964,608	5	Warner Bros.
Ticket to Paradise	$3,200,000	-46%	3,268	-365	$979	$61,556,235	5	Universal
She Said	$2,250,000		2,022		$1,113	$2,250,000	1	Universal
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$1,900,000	-41%	2,307	-179	$824	$43,171,784	7	Sony Pictures
Smile	$1,149,604	-51%	1,569	-702	$733	$104,579,000	8	Paramount
Prey for the Devil	$935,000	-52%	1,369	-795	$683	$18,368,378	4	Lionsgate
The Banshees of Inisherin	$703,000	-57%	812	-148	$866	$7,166,820	5	Searchlight
Till	$217,558	-64%	656	-702	$332	$8,546,676	6	United Artists
Triangle of Sadness	$170,000	-33%	128	-56	$1,328	$3,816,422	7	Neon
TÁR	$164,000	-57%	205	-154	$800	$4,905,463	7	Focus Features
The Woman King	$151,000	-45%	258	-255	$585	$66,753,921	10	Sony Pictures
Bones and All	$119,916		5		$23,983	$119,916	1	United Artists
The Fabelmans	$94,000	-42%	4		$23,500	$313,922	2	Universal
Minions: The Rise of Gru	$80,000	-8%	186	-25	$430	$369,456,645	21	Universal
Aftersun	$75,528	-45%	97	5	$779	$689,183	5	A24
The Inspection	$65,942		5		$13,188	$65,942	1	A24
Armageddon Time	$51,000	-86%	169	-812	$302	$1,837,355	4	Focus Features
Barbarian	$25,000	-47%	35	-10	$714	$40,838,830	11	20th Century Studios
EO	$24,000		2		$12,000	$24,000	1	Janus Films
Amsterdam	$21,000	-58%	160	-10	$131	$14,943,134	7	20th Century Studios
Holy Spider	$20,080	2%	12	4	$1,673	$96,738	4	Utopia
Meet Me in the Bathroom	$19,464	-52%	23	-4	$846	$274,204	3	Utopia
All That Breathes	$9,078	89%	8	5	$1,135	$43,467	5	Submarine
Bad Axe	$9,000		24		$375	$9,000	1	IFC Films
Only in Theaters	$6,092		1		$6,092	$6,092	1	The Film Collaborative
Running The Bases	$1,250	-58%	6	-2	$208	$1,509,947	10	UP2U Films

[Grebacio]

13 hours ago, Flamengo81 said:

Here in Brazil they showed the 2015 Champions League final in theaters and it was a huge success. I went to see it and my theater was packed and it was a great experience, they should do it more honestly. It would be great to watch Brazil matchs in the World Cup in a packed theater. They could show relevant matches of the brazilian clubs too, but I am afraid that would be risky given that football is very violent over here.

Here in Argentina theatres played Argentina's matches during World Cup 2010

[XXR & Friends]

49 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Considering it got a Veterans Day boost last week a 62,8% drop ain´t the worst thing in the world. Especially if it can do well next weekend. It survived the week at least. 

 

Thor Ragnarok dropped 62% in the weekend preceding Thanksgiving then dropped 22% during Thanksgiving weekend. Now that was a 3rd-4th weekend and not 2nd-3rd, but lets see if BP2 can go sub 30% or not. Pencil me in for $49M. 

[filmlover]

Acceptable second weekend hold for Black Panther all things considered. I don't see it falling below a $40M third weekend thanks to the holiday frame.

 

Decent enough start for The Menu, and nothing to say about The Chosen other than "damn!" I can buy She Said's very old demographic breakdown after my (fairly full in a decent-sized theater) showing yesterday was almost entirely over 60. Movie's pretty good and should find a wider audience on streaming (which seems par for the course when it comes to prestige/adult fare this season). Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise are still on track for $165M+ and $70M+, respectively.

 

Bones and All's start seems not bad but seems destined to struggle in wide release next weekend. The Fabelmans had a good second weekend drop in its 4 theaters, now fingers crossed the 600 theater wide expansion goes well.

[Eric Twister]

Pretty ho-hum weekend, even accounting for the post-holiday declines. It is cool though to see The Menu in the high single-digits. Should at least hold well for Thanksgiving and until Avatar drops to make it to around what Ready or Not did.

[filmlover]

The grosses for The Chosen make me even more disappointed that the box office numbers for Glass Onion are unlikely to be officially reported by Netflix. Looking at its sales so far, it might have no problem being #3 for the weekend behind Black Panther and Strange World even in just 600 theaters.

[CJohn]

Movies continue to bomb. More news in a week.

[ringedmortality]

Would The Menu have done better in the pre-pandemic world? Like at most it’d do Ready or Not numbers but probably less since that was outright horror.

[filmlover]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

Would The Menu have done better in the pre-pandemic world? Like at most it’d do Ready or Not numbers but probably less since that was outright horror.

It's probably doing about as well as expected. Dark satires have always been tough sells.

[narniadis]

Not sure what happened 🤷‍♂️

 

Solid, if unremarkable weekend overall. Its nice that when compared with 2019 its just barely down, even with the lack of product and no big film opening in the Pre-Thanksgiving weekend. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by narniadis

[Eric Twister]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Would The Menu have done better in the pre-pandemic world? Like at most it’d do Ready or Not numbers but probably less since that was outright horror.

Nah. Ready or Not numbers always seemed like the goal and that still seems possible IMO

[ThomasNicole]

Seems good tbh 

 

 

 

 

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

Considering it got a Veterans Day boost last week a 62,8% drop ain´t the worst thing in the world. Especially if it can do well next weekend. It survived the week at least. 

The actual behaviour of the 2nd weekend was about as good as you could hope for (aka the Friday/Saturday bumps and Sunday drop). It's the really soft first weekdays that ultimately set up the 2nd weekend drop. But based on said weekdays, I'm pretty happy with the weekend performance, if that makes sense.

[ringedmortality]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's probably doing about as well as expected. Dark satires have always been tough sells.

 

22 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Nah. Ready or Not numbers always seemed like the goal and that still seems possible IMO

 

Yeah, I think the biggest problem with The Menu is it’s large budget. Which I assume a healthy portion went to COVID protocols. If it was 15-20 million, then this would be pretty great.

Edited November 20, 2022 by ringedmortality

[Maggie]

What's the point of The Fabelmans opening limited? It's a Steven Spielberg highly praised film. I doubt the small release will help with the buzz for the large opening

[M37]

25 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Thor Ragnarok dropped 62% in the weekend preceding Thanksgiving then dropped 22% during Thanksgiving weekend. Now that was a 3rd-4th weekend and not 2nd-3rd, but lets see if BP2 can go sub 30% or not. Pencil me in for $49M. 

That was also a Justice League hit and ensuing rebound, but even Strange and Eternals had sub 30% drops 

 

I’ll take the early over on $50M 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

What's the point of The Fabelmans opening limited? It's a Steven Spielberg highly praised film. I doubt the small release will help with the buzz for the large opening

They want to build buzz as much as they can in this environment that's been mostly unkind to prestige pictures as a way of building buzz. Better that than going wide out the gate and playing to mostly empty auditoriums.

[Pinacolada]

Curious why Banshees of Inisherin didn't recover on Saturday and Sunday. Everything had rough drops on Fridsay, but many recovered by Sunday, except for Banshees

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Movies continue to bomb. More news in a week.

2 weeks and 3 weeks, then we out of news for a while