A Very Queer Thanksgiving Weekend Thread | We Here. We Queer. Move On. | 3-Day/5-Day: Black Panther 45.9/64, Strange World 11.9/18.6, Glass Onion 9.2/13.3, Devotion 6/9, The Menu 5.2/7.3 | Daddy Cameron, please save us!

[CaptNathanBrittles]

The post-COVID pipeline is a far bigger issue than streaming, IMO. This year January, February, April, August, and September were dead months as is the time between BP2 and AVATAR 2.  Next year, starting February, there is a big movie being released virtually every week. In fact, summer looks too crowded and unless a movie or two moves we could see some movies disappointing due to too much competition.

Edited November 27, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles

[Flopped]

After 22 years of almost exclusively garbage paycheck choices, Kate Hudson finally delivers on the early promise of Almost Famous with Glass Onion. Better late than never. 

[Eric Lasagna]

 

[CloneWars]

Holy shit, Strange Worlds flopped. What's WFs target currently after this weekend?

[jedijake]

It's really not that complicated. If people aren't swarming the theaters for big action, special effects movies, they CERTAINLY are not going to spend money on movies where people mostly talk. Nothing against these movies because many are good, but the expectation is "if I see it, it will be in my own home on a streaming service I already pay for to see other movies".

 

What @CaptNathanBrittlessaid is 100% spot on. COVID accelerated what may have been inevitable. Try talking to people under 24 about movies. Nobody cares and few have interest. By its second weekend, TGM's audience was 45% over 55 years old. How many of that audience actually stream and how many would see superhero movies, animated movies, horror movies, or movies without action? TGM had action, military (popular with older white conservatives) but not the CGI fest that turns a lot of older folks off.

 

Problem is, as I said, TGM cannot tap into any movie trend that can continue the way superheroes did and other franchises did. So, next year, we are back at square one; that is it's superhero movies or bust. And that genre is even starting to wane a bit for younger audiences as well. Indiana Jones 5 is the only film that could tap into the TGM audience. But I am fearful for that one. The cast skews WAY WAY WAY older and I highly doubt there will be much interest at all from the under-35 crowd.

 

As for WDAS, they need to stick with what they do best: musicals Next year, Wish will be a HUGE thermometer for them.

[Torontofan]

Things seem a bit dead movie wise in many industries not just hollywood. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

The USA box office and the overall state of cinema is tragic.

 

People who think next year will be better are in for a rude awakening.

Also, being so confident in the little mermaid is just dumb. It might do well in North America where Bailey's casting will be valued as a great progress in society, but it will flop badly elsewhere where people are 1) tired of the disney's mediocre and lazy live actions, 2) tired of disney's ruthless butchering of european culture, lore and folklore.  Pinocchio was literally blasted by the italian critics and deemed as deeply direspectful towards Collodi's work, I'm sure the same will be true for the little mermaid and H.C. Andersen. 3) not really accustomed to movies led by POC (China, eastern Asia).

 

I also don't think straight adult men (even american ones) will go see the movie like they did with Aladdin or The Lion King, which were much more suitable for them as a target audience. And since straight adult men still make the biggest chunk of the moviegoers, I just can't see TLM outgrossing Indiana Jones or Aquaman. 

[AniNate]

I'm not predicting anything about next year but despite this weekend the overall 2022 box office is already well ahead of the 2021 total. No reason to think that trend can't continue if we can get through this winter with far less covid paranoia and a more balanced release schedule next year. Certainly it will help if people actually see the Disney animated tentpoles.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by AniNate

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I also don't think straight adult men (even american ones) will go see the movie like they did with Aladdin or The Lion King, which were much more suitable for them as a target audience. And since straight adult men still make the biggest chunk of the moviegoers, I just can't see TLM outgrossing Indiana Jones or Aquaman. 

 

I don't think straight, adult men carried Beauty and the Beast to $504M domestic.

I'm not as bullish on it as some in here are, but if it has decent WOM I can still see it doing $300-350M domestically. OS will probably be weaker, comparatively, to the other Renaissance remakes but I can still see $350-400M.  

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Having seen Glass Onion on Friday, I am glad. We watched Disenchanted with the kids last night, and the difference between experience wise can't be understated. But I will always champion the theater experience over strictly home viewing. 

Mind you, I couldn't have afforded to take the whole family to a decent showing of Disenchanted since 6 tickets, plus the time and food adds up way too quick right now with the local cheap times retired for the season apparently. 

 

Amen - they really should give Puss discount Tuesday or 1st shows for the Christmas season...families are gonna need the incentive, even with Christmas...

[AniNate]

I will say Puss so far seems to have reviews indicating it's legit good. That really needs to break out a bit to renew some faith.

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

The USA box office and the overall state of cinema is tragic.

 

People who think next year will be better are in for a rude awakening.

Also, being so confident in the little mermaid is just dumb. It might do well in North America where Bailey's casting will be valued as a great progress in society, but it will flop badly elsewhere where people are 1) tired of the disney's mediocre and lazy live actions, 2) tired of disney's ruthless butchering of european culture, lore and folklore.  Pinocchio was literally blasted by the italian critics and deemed as deeply direspectful towards Collodi's work, I'm sure the same will be true for the little mermaid and H.C. Andersen. 3) not really accustomed to movies led by POC (China, eastern Asia).

 

I also don't think straight adult men (even american ones) will go see the movie like they did with Aladdin or The Lion King, which were much more suitable for them as a target audience. And since straight adult men still make the biggest chunk of the moviegoers, I just can't see TLM outgrossing Indiana Jones or Aquaman. 

Do they though? A good family film in the summer or Christmas holidays will always do exceptionally well given the right climate. We don't have that climate, but we could next year. Look at Aladdin and Lion King in 2019.

 

I just think that Indy 5 will suffer MUCH more of a "sins of the father" effect than anything from MCU. The last Indy was 15 years ago and was not well received. And there's no new youngin' to take the reigns from Indy.

 

Aquaman2 will only do well because it's the holidays.

 

I think Mermaid will be the biggest movie domestically next year. I think it will go something like this (domestically)

1. Little Mermaid ($420m)

2. GOTG3 ($360m)

3. Aquaman 2 (thanks holidays) ($340m)

4, Hunger Games Songbirds and Snakes ($300m)

5. Ant Man QM ($280m)

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, jedijake said:

Do they though? A good family film in the summer or Christmas holidays will always do exceptionally well given the right climate. We don't have that climate, but we could next year. Look at Aladdin and Lion King in 2019.

 

I just think that Indy 5 will suffer MUCH more of a "sins of the father" effect than anything from MCU. The last Indy was 15 years ago and was not well received. And there's no new youngin' to take the reigns from Indy.

 

Aquaman2 will only do well because it's the holidays.

 

I think Mermaid will be the biggest movie domestically next year. I think it will go something like this (domestically)

1. Little Mermaid ($420m)

2. GOTG3 ($360m)

3. Aquaman 2 (thanks holidays) ($340m)

4, Hunger Games Songbirds and Snakes ($300m)

5. Ant Man QM ($280m)

 

GOTG3 under GOTG2?
I think Songbirds does half of that number.

[PlatnumRoyce]

14 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

The USA box office and the overall state of cinema is tragic.

 

People who think next year will be better are in for a rude awakening.

Also, being so confident in the little mermaid is just dumb. It might do well in North America where Bailey's casting will be valued as a great progress in society, but it will flop badly elsewhere where people are 1) tired of the disney's mediocre and lazy live actions, 2) tired of disney's ruthless butchering of european culture, lore and folklore.  Pinocchio was literally blasted by the italian critics and deemed as deeply direspectful towards Collodi's work, I'm sure the same will be true for the little mermaid and H.C. Andersen. 3) not really accustomed to movies led by POC (China, eastern Asia).

 

I also don't think straight adult men (even american ones) will go see the movie like they did with Aladdin or The Lion King, which were much more suitable for them as a target audience. And since straight adult men still make the biggest chunk of the moviegoers, I just can't see TLM outgrossing Indiana Jones or Aquaman. 

Moviegoing seems split 50/50 in general.

According to 2 weeks of posttrak data Beauty and the Beast got 36% male, Lion King 47% male, Jungle Book 48%, and according to OW data Aladdin was 59% female with a significant gender gap in approval of film after seeing it. However, deadline notes that Disney went out of their way to sell aladdin to male audiences via expensive marketing tied into sports. 

So if you expect male audiences to decline from the more male skewing live action reboots, you're seeing a 25% decline in male audiences which means a ~12% decline overall if not counteracted by other forces. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by PlatnumRoyce

[ringedmortality]

40 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Try talking to people under 24 about movies. Nobody cares and few have interest.

Wasn’t a poll released that Gen Z loves to go to the movies and their most anticipated for the rest of the year is Avatar.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Wasn’t a poll released that Gen Z loves to go to the movies and their most anticipated for the rest of the year is Avatar.

 

Idk about "loves to go to the movies" but yes there was a poll taken that reflected A2 was most anticipated movie for the rest of the year. It should be mentioned though that the poll was taken after BPWF came out so it's not like there's much else to choose from on that front. 

[GOGODanca]

Theatres should learn from national cinema day, cut your ticket prices and your absurd food/drink prices and way more people will come through and you will build up a more loyal theater going fanbase, can't jack up prices every 3 months and expect the avg person to show up as much

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

21 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Theatres should learn from national cinema day, cut your ticket prices and your absurd food/drink prices and way more people will come through and you will build up a more loyal theater going fanbase, can't jack up prices every 3 months and expect the avg person to show up as much

And hope the boost in traffic will be enough to cover their costs? Movie theaters aren't libraries, they have rent/leases to worry about. But the huge attendance for National Cinema Day does tell you that there's still a big interest in theaters. They could probably experiment with different gimmicks beyond Cheap Tuesdays or a once a year $3 ticket promo.

 

 

Though I do feel fortunate that movie tickets can still be cheaply had where I live, so I don't really relate to the complaints about prices. I've always favored matinees and don't really care about premium formats, which cuts down on the costs a lot.

[YM!]

1. Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $205m/$450m 
3. The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$425m
4. Aquaman 2 - $90m/$380m
5. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$360m
6. The Marvels - $125m/$300m
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $105m/$120m/$295m
8. Blue Beetle - $80m/$235m
9. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $90m/$235m
10. Dune Part 2 - $75m/$225m

Potential 200m+ hitters:

- Fantastic Beasts numbers for Hunger Games

- 200-225m for Wonka as it seems like a holiday favorite.

- Out of all the animation, Illumination has become the biggest brand at the box office so Migration seems likely for 200m.

- Trolls 3 could do 200m as Dreamworks seems to be rebounding.

- Wish is Disney’s only tentpole this holiday and 100th year thing so I think they’ll push it.

- Across the SpiderVerse is in a situation where it will get fucked over by all sides because the nostalgic toy commercials are too strong but we will see if the love of the first is strong enough.

- Elemental could do well but whenever Disney does a six week sandwich of film release, the one in the middle gets fucked.

- Flash depends on how much the Ezra stuff will hurt, it could do sub 200m or 300m+ and neither would surprise me.

- Barbie reminds me of Detective Pikachu and WB is incompetent at selling family films (cause in point being Pikachu and all of the WAG movies).

- Oppenheimer seems more of a 100m hitter and with The Marvels so close I imagine a Matrix 4 situation where Oppenheimer just gets IMAX and The Marvels takes all other PLFs and then IMAX after the week is over.

Edited November 28, 2022 by YM!

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, Krissykins said:

That A Cinemascore and 81% RT audience score for The Fabelmans don’t seem to correlate. 
 

Those are weak numbers though, how much did it cost? 

Because cinemascore polls just 6 cities, which are NY, LA, Toronto and 3 others.